Victorian State Election 2022

[stui magpie]

So we go to the Polls on 26 November in the most underwhelming build up in recent memory.

Both sides promising to build new hospitals, fix everything that's broken and are generally full of sh1t.

WPT's old mate sums up the general feeling as such.

Will Dan Andrews meet his Waterloo in six weeks? Will ABBA determine the fate of the Victorian Premier on November 26?

“Anyone But Bloody Andrews …” is one of the sentiments oft heard by anxious politicians as they go knocking on doors all around Victoria. It seems terminal for the premier, until the words “… except Matt Guy” follow. Mamma Mia!

That sums it up for me, ABBA definitely, but with the lack of anything remotely resembling a viable opposition, it's looking like another term for Chairman Dan.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/vict ... 5bpv3.html

On the other hand, Neil Mitchell wants to go back down the Covid response path.

It’s the war nobody wants to mention. It’s the elephant in the room of this state election campaign, and it has two heads.

This is what is being ignored: first, Daniel Andrews’ management of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Victoria’s world-record, business-kicking, 262-day, six-part lockdown. That’s up to him to defend and the opposition to prosecute.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 5bpv7.html

The Libs don't need a quality campaign marketing person, which is lucky because it seems they don't have one, they could get a high school kid to pull together the litany of lies and **** we dealt with for nearly 3 years, but again it comes back to the lack of a viable opposition.

My expectations are that Labor will get a decent swing against in the primary vote overall, but the Libs will pick up little of that, we might get a few more independents in, Labor will lose a few seats, Libs will tread water while sinking, but Labor will win.

[David]

[think positive]

thats actually good info, i wonder how many people will be conned by the pets party, thats disgusting

[David]

I was wondering that too; was combing through their website wondering why this party exists and what they stand for (as most of their policies seemed pretty middle-of-the-road, with a few hints dropped about looking after the rights of animal owners to work with animals as they see fit, including "racing greyhounds"). Then I saw the blurb for this paywalled article:

https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/ ... 85c3a18fe0

Upstart party takes on Animal Justice

The Companions and Pets Party has been established by racing, breeding and ag identities to counterbalance the Animal Justice Party’s influence.

I looked further and found submissions from the party to various state parliaments like this one, which is a response to a NSW Parliament bill seeking to ban puppy farms:

https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdoc ... 0Party.pdf

The community has a fundamental right to the ownership of animals, and the freedoms that our nation provides allows the quiet enjoyment of these animals.

No government in Australia has EVER been granted a mandate by the electorate to revoke that freedom or that right.

That right and that freedom are fundamental rights that citizens of Australia believe are naturally theirs.

This Bill seeks to greatly diminish the rights of people to own animals, and the rights people have to quiet enjoyment of their animals.

THE COMPANIONS AND PETS PARTY (CAP) WILL VIGOROUSLY DEFEND THE RIGHTS OF THE PEOPLE OF NSW AND AUSTRALIA TO OWN ANIMALS, AND ENJOY WHATEVER LEGAL PURSUITS THEY UNDERTAKE WITH THEIR ANIMALS.

CAP calls on the NSW Government to immediately abandon this bill

So yeah, they literally seem to be an anti-animal-welfare party, which is quite something!

[think positive]

scumbags

crazy they can use that name, dusgusting

[stui magpie]

That's quite deceptive actually, I hope they don't get anyone elected.

The Palmer party had a stall at Thommo Market on Sunday, they seemed to have given away at least a dozen yellow caps.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out, Labor should win easy but there is still a lot of resentment toward Dan out there which may not be showing in the polls. However it plays, I don't expect the Libs to do much damage, except maybe to themselves.

[eddiesmith]

It's interesting to see Dan's biggest supporters from the last 2 elections the UFU and ones who were crucial in his election in 2014 completely turning on him and going hard against the government.

The thing is their message of anti Labor, vote Greens is actually getting lost as simply don't vote for Dan so could backfire if he actually loses

But it's interesting to see a powerful pro Dan union turn on him solely because the leader of the union got in an internal party struggle and he's turned the entire unions agenda to suit himself.

[David]

[eddiesmith]

Still going hard against Labor including in regional seats where you'd think the Greens were zero chance of winning.

They are quick to point they'd obviously never want a Coalition government, but their billboards simply say put Labor last.

[Pies4shaw]

^ People who can read and write but have decided they can't vote for the ALP will turn naturally to the Greens, so their billboards don't have to say anything else. They aren't interested in trying to split the mouth-breather vote.

[think positive]

Ok guys, make it easy for me please

Can you please give me a lit if what each party us offering that you think I care about!


If anything the answers could be interesting!

[David]

[stui magpie]

My view is that both Libs and Labs are promising shitpiles of money for everything. Pity Labor hadn't spent some of the money it's now promising to health on health prior to the pandemic instead of squaring with the CFMEU.

I'll be voting Liberal first and labor last primarily because I think Andrews is a lying, autocratic, arrogant, dictatorial cnut (and those are his good points), not because I think the Libs have any genuine clue or chance.

I expect a Labor win, after a decent swing away toward independants, and an upper house packed full of fruit loops. So vote for who you'd like to govern for the next 3 years, whoever that may be.

[Jezza]

My view is that both Libs and Labs are promising shitpiles of money for everything. Pity Labor hadn't spent some of the money it's now promising to health on health prior to the pandemic instead of squaring with the CFMEU.

I'll be voting Liberal first and labor last primarily because I think Andrews is a lying, autocratic, arrogant, dictatorial cnut (and those are his good points), not because I think the Libs have any genuine clue or chance.

I expect a Labor win, after a decent swing away toward independants, and an upper house packed full of fruit loops. So vote for who you'd like to govern for the next 3 years, whoever that may be.

I agree with this. I absolutely despise Andrews, but I think Labor holds on whether it's a reduced majority or minority government.

[Jezza]

Broadly, I think most are expecting a Labor victory in some shape or form. The interest might be whether they lose enough seats that forces them into minority government or not.

The most recent polls have Labor's primary around 37 or 38, which is a drop of about 5 to 6% from the 2018 election. The Coalition has made small or no gains from Labor's primary drop with most votes likely to go to the Greens (2 or 3% increase) and Other (3% or 4% increase).

I can envisage an outcome of something along the lines of Labor 49, Coalition 30, Greens 5 and Other 4. Though this is a very loose prediction with 18 days left until the election.

Seats to watch:

Labor vs Coalition

- Ripon
- Bayswater
- Yan Yean
- Morwell (held by independent, but the incumbent is retiring)
- Sandringham
- Hastings
- Pakenham
- Glen Waverley
- Melton (Coalition aiming to win this, but more likely to fall to an independent)
- Box Hill
- Ashwood
- Ringwood
- South Barwon
- Cranbourne


Labor vs Greens

- Northcote
- Richmond
- Prahran
- Albert Park

Greens will retain Melbourne and Brunswick. I think the Greens will win Northcote, Richmond and Prahran and Labor holds onto Albert Park. The Greens primary has been around 12-13% in the last few polls I've seen which is an increase from 2018 where they won 3 seats.


Labor vs Independent
- Melton
- Point Cook
- Werribee

All outer Western suburban seats. The independents in these electorates are running on Labor neglect. They view Labor as neglecting these electorates and taking them for granted with a lack of upgrades with roads, hospitals etc. I think Labor's most vulnerable in Melton and then Point Cook. I think they hold onto Werribee.

- Bellarine
- Mulgrave (Andrews' seat)

Labor should win both of these seats, despite independents being their main threat.


Coalition vs Teals

- Brighton
- Caulfield (three-way contest between the Coalition, Teal and Labor)
- Hawthorn (currently held by Labor, but not expected to retain)
- Kew
- Mornington

A repeat of the Federal election in some ways. The Coalition lost several traditional blue-ribbon seats to the Teals and this might be replicated in a few weeks time.


Coalition vs Independent

- Benambra
- Mildura
- Shepparton

The Coalition needs to win back Mildura and Shepparton to have any hope in this election. Benambra was one of the closest seats in 2018.