Pre-match: The Furries vs the Pies - The Analysis....here...
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Snoop Dog
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Dave The Man
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favourites 2008
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Geelong have been treading water for a few weeks now. It's early in the season and they dont want to spend all their tickets too early. They have been beating sides they should be beating by 10 goals by 3 goals..... They've been in second gear, doing what they need to... winning... without killing themselves....
They're waiting for the right opposition... the right game... the right stage....
What's the bet they 'switch on' on Friday night....?!?
I'm very worried about this match. If each player doesnt play at 100%, we're in big trouble....
They're waiting for the right opposition... the right game... the right stage....
What's the bet they 'switch on' on Friday night....?!?
I'm very worried about this match. If each player doesnt play at 100%, we're in big trouble....
Beware the swooping Magpie.
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Buckley's Right Boot
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Great analysis,
We certainly haven't reached the level of intensity and pressure that we did in last years prelim, but we are capable...
IMHO, give Wood a rest and keep Bryan in. I liked his intensity last week, and perhaps we could rest him forward. We are of course assuming that Josh will be back this week.
We certainly haven't reached the level of intensity and pressure that we did in last years prelim, but we are capable...
IMHO, give Wood a rest and keep Bryan in. I liked his intensity last week, and perhaps we could rest him forward. We are of course assuming that Josh will be back this week.
Buckley from outside the arc......GOAL!
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ktszyu1
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Great post mate. I'll add my thoughts:
I agree that last week wasn't a great win, but it was a good win nonetheless. There were good signs, such as increased defensive intensity, shown by our dominance in the tackle count. Our kicking was a little bit better than in previous weeks, but there were still too many errors made, and against a quality outfit like the Cats, the number has to be slashed by at least 25%.
Selection - I too, was very impressed with Bryan last week. He doesn't deserve to be dropped, however I'm going to say that we should keep Wood in the side for one reason: Ottens is out, therefore we have to exploit their sole weakness - the ruck. Wood is a much better tap ruckman than Bryan, and we need to dominate the hitouts against Blake and Mumford if we want to break-even (or better) in the centre clearances, and stoppages in general. We need both Fraser and Wood to be at their best, to dominate in the ruck, and around the ground. This would be the only change, however I'd consider Maxwell out for Goldsack given the greater flexibility Goldsack has (IMO), and Maxwell's poor form.
Game-plan - Geelong is deadly running the ball out of defence. We must ensure we stop their rebound. The main culprits are Scarlett, Milburn and Woji. To stop this, we need to change our forward structure. I say we play Paul Medhurst out of the goal square. Anthony Rocca to start 30 metres out, and push up to CHF. Cloke to start at CHF, and push up the ground from there. Leon Davis and Dale Thomas to play across half forward, and they have to ensure they don't push too far up the ground. With Rocca playing further up, when he creates the contest we will have Davis and Thomas, plus a couple of midfielders at his feet. This will prevent the easy possession and consequent rebound when Scarlett beats Rocca, and gives us a great opportunity at ground level. If we want to use Leon in the midfield, put Medhurst at HF, and put Tarkyn in the square.
In the midfield, there has been a suggestion I saw at bigfooty that I agree with after some thought. Put Heath Shaw head-to-head with Gary Ablett. Generally, Heath will play 100% game time, so in this role he will need rests. He needs to be told to play defensive, but make sure he hurts Gary going the other way. Heath has the pace, the tank, the strength and the brain to go with Gary. Obviously we cannot totally supress his influence, that's almost impossible, but it will really put Ablett under the pump, and force him to be more accountable. Rhyce Shaw to run with Bartel, and not to let him get so much uncontested ball. Ling will most likely tag Pendlebury, so we need Didak and Swan to really lift their games to compensate, because Pendles will be beaten by Ling IMO. Finally, we have to control the corridor defensively. We can't let them run it through there like we did the Saints. Get numbers in there, and push them to the boundary. This all starts from forward line pressure, hence why stopping the rebound is VITAL.
Down back - Wakelin on Mooney, Brown on Hawkins, Goldy on Johnson, Harry on Chapman, Clarke on Stokes.
We've got nothing to lose this week, we've got to go out there and play as if this were a final. They stopped us from getting the flag last year, we've got to go out and punish them for it. High-intensity, high-pressure, relentless football. When we lay a tackle, we have to make it hurt, and we put the bump on, put them down hard, ROUGH THEM UP! This is our chance to set ourselves up. Go out there and show them who we are! Cmon PIES!
I agree that last week wasn't a great win, but it was a good win nonetheless. There were good signs, such as increased defensive intensity, shown by our dominance in the tackle count. Our kicking was a little bit better than in previous weeks, but there were still too many errors made, and against a quality outfit like the Cats, the number has to be slashed by at least 25%.
Selection - I too, was very impressed with Bryan last week. He doesn't deserve to be dropped, however I'm going to say that we should keep Wood in the side for one reason: Ottens is out, therefore we have to exploit their sole weakness - the ruck. Wood is a much better tap ruckman than Bryan, and we need to dominate the hitouts against Blake and Mumford if we want to break-even (or better) in the centre clearances, and stoppages in general. We need both Fraser and Wood to be at their best, to dominate in the ruck, and around the ground. This would be the only change, however I'd consider Maxwell out for Goldsack given the greater flexibility Goldsack has (IMO), and Maxwell's poor form.
Game-plan - Geelong is deadly running the ball out of defence. We must ensure we stop their rebound. The main culprits are Scarlett, Milburn and Woji. To stop this, we need to change our forward structure. I say we play Paul Medhurst out of the goal square. Anthony Rocca to start 30 metres out, and push up to CHF. Cloke to start at CHF, and push up the ground from there. Leon Davis and Dale Thomas to play across half forward, and they have to ensure they don't push too far up the ground. With Rocca playing further up, when he creates the contest we will have Davis and Thomas, plus a couple of midfielders at his feet. This will prevent the easy possession and consequent rebound when Scarlett beats Rocca, and gives us a great opportunity at ground level. If we want to use Leon in the midfield, put Medhurst at HF, and put Tarkyn in the square.
In the midfield, there has been a suggestion I saw at bigfooty that I agree with after some thought. Put Heath Shaw head-to-head with Gary Ablett. Generally, Heath will play 100% game time, so in this role he will need rests. He needs to be told to play defensive, but make sure he hurts Gary going the other way. Heath has the pace, the tank, the strength and the brain to go with Gary. Obviously we cannot totally supress his influence, that's almost impossible, but it will really put Ablett under the pump, and force him to be more accountable. Rhyce Shaw to run with Bartel, and not to let him get so much uncontested ball. Ling will most likely tag Pendlebury, so we need Didak and Swan to really lift their games to compensate, because Pendles will be beaten by Ling IMO. Finally, we have to control the corridor defensively. We can't let them run it through there like we did the Saints. Get numbers in there, and push them to the boundary. This all starts from forward line pressure, hence why stopping the rebound is VITAL.
Down back - Wakelin on Mooney, Brown on Hawkins, Goldy on Johnson, Harry on Chapman, Clarke on Stokes.
We've got nothing to lose this week, we've got to go out there and play as if this were a final. They stopped us from getting the flag last year, we've got to go out and punish them for it. High-intensity, high-pressure, relentless football. When we lay a tackle, we have to make it hurt, and we put the bump on, put them down hard, ROUGH THEM UP! This is our chance to set ourselves up. Go out there and show them who we are! Cmon PIES!
"We're goin places."
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collingwoodfan
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DaVe86
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Great as always Snoop....love comparing your ideas to mine. Seems we are pretty much in agreeance this week. Think Rhyce is the way to go on Ablett as well.
Your comment about hoping we kick it long instead of playing flanks stands out as the reason why Rocca needs to play.
When Rocca is out, we play chip style footy and we are stagnant.
When he is in, we play on quicker and boot it long to him...and Didak, Davis and Thomas become more effective.
Rocca isnt even a contemplation to be dropped.
Think weather aside, Bryan should make way for Wood.
Also interested in whether Ottens is right to play. If Ottens is out, and it is wet weather...i would consider bringing in another midfielder. Geelong love the wet with guys like Bartel, Corey and Ablett right at home.
Blake and Mumford would not be at home in the wet...Josh can take them alone.
Last week, the reserves played in the wet...so the best performed should be brought in if it is raining. Isles formline has been ok, so has stanleys.
Your comment about hoping we kick it long instead of playing flanks stands out as the reason why Rocca needs to play.
When Rocca is out, we play chip style footy and we are stagnant.
When he is in, we play on quicker and boot it long to him...and Didak, Davis and Thomas become more effective.
Rocca isnt even a contemplation to be dropped.
Think weather aside, Bryan should make way for Wood.
Also interested in whether Ottens is right to play. If Ottens is out, and it is wet weather...i would consider bringing in another midfielder. Geelong love the wet with guys like Bartel, Corey and Ablett right at home.
Blake and Mumford would not be at home in the wet...Josh can take them alone.
Last week, the reserves played in the wet...so the best performed should be brought in if it is raining. Isles formline has been ok, so has stanleys.
There's more to life than footy.........just not much more.
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Zakal
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Good analysis again Snoop, and i guess ill just add a few thoughts to keep up with the analytical spirit of the thread. hehe.
Firstly, Cloke. We need a big game from him, much like he produced on ANZAC Day (but not since). He is one of the few players who can look forward to winning their matchup this week based on past confidence. Pretty sure he played on Milburn in the Prelim, and absolutely tore him apart.
Also comprehensibly smashed the other pretender cat A-A defender in Egan in Round 15 picking up a whopping 20 touches, 10 marks and 4 goals. He averages just under 3 goals a game against the Cats. Imo, while we worry about Rocca losing to Scarlett, they should be just as worried about Cloke. They have never once kept him quiet. However, his seasons form so far will allay their fears somewhat. The problem (for them) is that a player like Cloke can really explode at any moment. Hopefully (for us) its this week.
Speaking of Rocca. His fortunes depend on the midfield unfortunately, because he treads a very fine line playing on Scarlett. If he makes a mistake OR the midfield makes a mistake, Scarlett wins that ball. Unless a teammate brings Scarlett down, that forward thrust is wasted. However this can be countered in two ways:
1. Play Rocca DEEP in the goal square. At worst, this means Scarlett runs a bit and kicks to the midfield instead of running off Rocca at CHB, running to CHF and kicking to Mooney.
2. Ensure that only certain players target Rocca. Burns, Thomas, Daisy, Didak, Davis, Pendles (not medhurst, swan, obree or rhyce).
Ultimately, the goal (however we do it) is to get Rocca one-out with Scarlett. Rocca is statistically the most prolific contested marker in teh competition...Scarlett can run....lets play to OUR strengths rather than theirs. If you are a poor kick and must go inside 50...kick it to Medhurst, Didak, Leon or Cloke. Not Rocca.
We need a fast leading forward. Tarrants role in bitchifying Scarlett every year is underrated. His speed made the tactic of double-teaming Rocca while Scarlett ran away almost impossible to execute. Double-team Rocca and Tarrant would be free and dangerous. Now we have neither him nor Rusling, and Reid is not ready to be recalled. Maybe this is a chance to try Brown up forward again? However i wouldnt do it permanently. I would start him up forward, give him 15minutes there. Swing him back. If it works, simply rinse and repeat each quarter. Keep them guessing.
This brings us to the midfield. Our midfield cops a LOT of criticism, both for being poor at the clearances and poorly skilled.
We are ranked 3rd overall for Clearances, Geelong 9th.
We are also the 2nd best team in the competition at stopping the oppositiong getting clearances (2nd least clearances against). Geelong are again 9th.
Except for Melbourne, Geelong make more errors than any other team. They average 102 errors per game, we average 89. (Adelaide 78)
The unfortunate thing this year, is that our pressure has been so poor, we are actually ranked last for errors against, meaning we dont force mistakes like we did last year.
We are only ranked 9th in tackles this year, last year we were 1st ( i think).
We are also ranked 14th in contested possessions, Geelong 1st.
Looking at those numbers, it really confrims what ive thought all along so far this year. The biggest factor responsible for our drop in performance this year has been our lack of intensity.
- Less intense also means less contested possessions, which means when the ball is there to be won, we are letting the opposition run away with the ball...and because we are tackling less, they opposition is making less errors, which in turn means less chances for us to capitalise on those errors, and more precise disposals which hurt us. We lose on this two-fold.
The long and short of the matter is....TURN UP TO PLAY. HIT THEM HARD. and NEVER GIVE UP.
Do those three things, and we'll stand the best chance we've had in 12 months to knock them off.
Firstly, Cloke. We need a big game from him, much like he produced on ANZAC Day (but not since). He is one of the few players who can look forward to winning their matchup this week based on past confidence. Pretty sure he played on Milburn in the Prelim, and absolutely tore him apart.
Also comprehensibly smashed the other pretender cat A-A defender in Egan in Round 15 picking up a whopping 20 touches, 10 marks and 4 goals. He averages just under 3 goals a game against the Cats. Imo, while we worry about Rocca losing to Scarlett, they should be just as worried about Cloke. They have never once kept him quiet. However, his seasons form so far will allay their fears somewhat. The problem (for them) is that a player like Cloke can really explode at any moment. Hopefully (for us) its this week.
Speaking of Rocca. His fortunes depend on the midfield unfortunately, because he treads a very fine line playing on Scarlett. If he makes a mistake OR the midfield makes a mistake, Scarlett wins that ball. Unless a teammate brings Scarlett down, that forward thrust is wasted. However this can be countered in two ways:
1. Play Rocca DEEP in the goal square. At worst, this means Scarlett runs a bit and kicks to the midfield instead of running off Rocca at CHB, running to CHF and kicking to Mooney.
2. Ensure that only certain players target Rocca. Burns, Thomas, Daisy, Didak, Davis, Pendles (not medhurst, swan, obree or rhyce).
Ultimately, the goal (however we do it) is to get Rocca one-out with Scarlett. Rocca is statistically the most prolific contested marker in teh competition...Scarlett can run....lets play to OUR strengths rather than theirs. If you are a poor kick and must go inside 50...kick it to Medhurst, Didak, Leon or Cloke. Not Rocca.
We need a fast leading forward. Tarrants role in bitchifying Scarlett every year is underrated. His speed made the tactic of double-teaming Rocca while Scarlett ran away almost impossible to execute. Double-team Rocca and Tarrant would be free and dangerous. Now we have neither him nor Rusling, and Reid is not ready to be recalled. Maybe this is a chance to try Brown up forward again? However i wouldnt do it permanently. I would start him up forward, give him 15minutes there. Swing him back. If it works, simply rinse and repeat each quarter. Keep them guessing.
This brings us to the midfield. Our midfield cops a LOT of criticism, both for being poor at the clearances and poorly skilled.
We are ranked 3rd overall for Clearances, Geelong 9th.
We are also the 2nd best team in the competition at stopping the oppositiong getting clearances (2nd least clearances against). Geelong are again 9th.
Except for Melbourne, Geelong make more errors than any other team. They average 102 errors per game, we average 89. (Adelaide 78)
The unfortunate thing this year, is that our pressure has been so poor, we are actually ranked last for errors against, meaning we dont force mistakes like we did last year.
We are only ranked 9th in tackles this year, last year we were 1st ( i think).
We are also ranked 14th in contested possessions, Geelong 1st.
Looking at those numbers, it really confrims what ive thought all along so far this year. The biggest factor responsible for our drop in performance this year has been our lack of intensity.
- Less intense also means less contested possessions, which means when the ball is there to be won, we are letting the opposition run away with the ball...and because we are tackling less, they opposition is making less errors, which in turn means less chances for us to capitalise on those errors, and more precise disposals which hurt us. We lose on this two-fold.
The long and short of the matter is....TURN UP TO PLAY. HIT THEM HARD. and NEVER GIVE UP.
Do those three things, and we'll stand the best chance we've had in 12 months to knock them off.
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Zakal
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DaVe86 wrote: Your comment about hoping we kick it long instead of playing flanks stands out as the reason why Rocca needs to play.
When Rocca is out, we play chip style footy and we are stagnant.
When he is in, we play on quicker and boot it long to him...and Didak, Davis and Thomas become more effective.
Rocca isnt even a contemplation to be dropped.
Actually thats an interesting point. We are 3rd in the comp for Long Kicks, but i wonder if we suffered a hit while Rocca was out for those 2 games. Although long kicking needs to be done intelligently. The Carlton game was the worst example of long kicking ive ever seen. We did it like it was the only way to play footy, but did it WAY too late, the flood was in place, and it got chopped off every time while our forward were drowning. FAST long kicks are the way to go...and if you miss the window, use your brain and dont just blindly do it anyway. Miss the window, retain possession and work it up more carefully. Once a team has flooded, the only long kick should be from 50m out going for goal to break the flood.
In fact, that may be a job for Cloke...while everyone is swarming over Mr Contested Mark Rocca in the goalsquare when they have had a chance to flood....his directive should be to immediately make his way to the top of the 50 to try and receive the chip pass to enable him to line up for a booming goal. Its something we havent seen much of in footy since the time Dew, Tredrea and Primus showed the footy world how a flood was supposed to be countered.
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chalky
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Don't like our chances this week guys. Like everybody has been saying - play better and we win. But I don't believe we are playing good enough football at the moment to win against the cats. Too many players down on form, the team as a whole is very flat, running out of steam by 3Q time. The positive is that slowly but surely the team will come through the otherside. We've already seen some glimpses. I believe that our coaches have made a calculated call during the pre season on the way we will prepare and the ramifications this type of preparation will have on the way the season will pan out round after round. I feel that we are building our season differently to last years. Now a slower, methodical build up as opposed to the breathtaking early sprint followed by that painful up and down torment on the road to the finals. Buttifant is far too meticulous in his scientific analysis. He knows what is happening and why. Malthouse knows what is happening and what is to come. He'd be nervous as it may be a gamble that could backfire.Collingwood is just treading water at 4-4. That is acceptable. The tsunami is building but not quite yet.
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Buckley's Right Boot
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Chalky, I hope you are right..
We don't seem to be running out games. The final quarters have already cost us 2 out of 8 games this season (25%)....This sort of "fading out" will not only cost us top4 but may severely dent our final 8 aspirations as well..
Check our this what if ladder from an article in the Herald Sun today...
THE WHAT IF LADDER
If the siren had sounded at the 20-minute mark of the final term in every game.
wins losses points pc up/down
Geelong 8 0 32 141.3% Same
Hawthorn 7 1 28 141.9% Same
Adelaide 7 1 28 136.8% Up 1
Coll'wood 6 2 24 109.2% Up 3
Bulldogs 5 3 20 126.4% Down 2
Roos 5 3 20 99.7% Same
Sydney 4 4 16 131.9% Down 2
Richmond 4 4 16 93.9% Up 4
Lions 3 5 12 102.7% Down 1
Port 3 5 12 102.0% Same
St Kilda 3 5 12 94.4% Down 2
Carlton 3 5 12 90.2% Down 1
Fremantle 3 5 12 88.1% Up 1
Essendon 2 6 8 75.0% Down 1
Eagles 1 7 4 68.6% Same
Melbourne 0 8 0 55.3% Same
We don't seem to be running out games. The final quarters have already cost us 2 out of 8 games this season (25%)....This sort of "fading out" will not only cost us top4 but may severely dent our final 8 aspirations as well..
Check our this what if ladder from an article in the Herald Sun today...
THE WHAT IF LADDER
If the siren had sounded at the 20-minute mark of the final term in every game.
wins losses points pc up/down
Geelong 8 0 32 141.3% Same
Hawthorn 7 1 28 141.9% Same
Adelaide 7 1 28 136.8% Up 1
Coll'wood 6 2 24 109.2% Up 3
Bulldogs 5 3 20 126.4% Down 2
Roos 5 3 20 99.7% Same
Sydney 4 4 16 131.9% Down 2
Richmond 4 4 16 93.9% Up 4
Lions 3 5 12 102.7% Down 1
Port 3 5 12 102.0% Same
St Kilda 3 5 12 94.4% Down 2
Carlton 3 5 12 90.2% Down 1
Fremantle 3 5 12 88.1% Up 1
Essendon 2 6 8 75.0% Down 1
Eagles 1 7 4 68.6% Same
Melbourne 0 8 0 55.3% Same
Buckley from outside the arc......GOAL!
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DaVe86
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As i said in my analysis...i dont think Rocca should play deep on Scarlett.
Thats how he has played him the last 3 games and it hasnt worked.
I think the best option is to actually play him at CHF. Scarlett is know to enjoy playing at Full Back in the goal square body on body with a giant. He then runs off and gets Harley to cover whilst he goes for a jog.
Port Adelaide have often exploited Scarlett by dragging him to CHB. He doesnt like it here.
Rocca looked most dangerous against Hudgton when he came outside 50. He created so many goals through handballs, taps, knock ons and contests. You have to see the highlights to understand how effective he was.
I would be bringing Rocca up the ground and playing Scarlett outside his comfort zone. Tell Rocca to take ruck contests, lay a few bumps and contest everything.
The further advantage is that Rocca has the capability to kick a goal from 55+. That makes him very dangerous outside 50 for 2 reasons.
1. He wont have to contend with the flood.
2. He has more leading space as he can start his leads from 35m and lead out to 60m with more space.
The other big advantage is that if Scarlett runs off, and we win a turnover, Rocca is immediately in the play. Whereas if he stays in the goalsquare, the ball has to travel the field to reach him alone, where Geelong will usually get numbers back in time.
If Scarlett wants to leave Rocca alone 60 metres out, then thats his risk. I have the suspicion that Scarlett will feel very lost.
In the past, when a player has dragged him outside 50, he has stayed at home on whoever the team sends to full forward.
It would be a huge bonus if he had to go to Medhurst or Trav Cloke...because history also shows he is most vulnerable to a quick lead up type forward.
Thats how he has played him the last 3 games and it hasnt worked.
I think the best option is to actually play him at CHF. Scarlett is know to enjoy playing at Full Back in the goal square body on body with a giant. He then runs off and gets Harley to cover whilst he goes for a jog.
Port Adelaide have often exploited Scarlett by dragging him to CHB. He doesnt like it here.
Rocca looked most dangerous against Hudgton when he came outside 50. He created so many goals through handballs, taps, knock ons and contests. You have to see the highlights to understand how effective he was.
I would be bringing Rocca up the ground and playing Scarlett outside his comfort zone. Tell Rocca to take ruck contests, lay a few bumps and contest everything.
The further advantage is that Rocca has the capability to kick a goal from 55+. That makes him very dangerous outside 50 for 2 reasons.
1. He wont have to contend with the flood.
2. He has more leading space as he can start his leads from 35m and lead out to 60m with more space.
The other big advantage is that if Scarlett runs off, and we win a turnover, Rocca is immediately in the play. Whereas if he stays in the goalsquare, the ball has to travel the field to reach him alone, where Geelong will usually get numbers back in time.
If Scarlett wants to leave Rocca alone 60 metres out, then thats his risk. I have the suspicion that Scarlett will feel very lost.
In the past, when a player has dragged him outside 50, he has stayed at home on whoever the team sends to full forward.
It would be a huge bonus if he had to go to Medhurst or Trav Cloke...because history also shows he is most vulnerable to a quick lead up type forward.
There's more to life than footy.........just not much more.
I'm probably a glass half full type of guy, so it's hardly surprising that I'm expecting us to win this friday. I reckon we turned the corner last week and this is our opportunity to wrest back control of our own destiny this season. MM's boys perform best when the pressure's on. One thing's for sure, it's sure to be on this friday. Last time we played them we had Guy Richards up against a rampaging Ottens and we still only went down by 5 points. I know it's only one game but I reckon careers will be made or possibly lost this friday night. We will see some of our young kids really stand up and show the football world what they're made of. I don't think the cats have the players to stop Leon, Medhurst, Travis and Dids. I can't wait. Bring it on. Go Pies!