2018-2019 EPL Discussion Thread

[Jezza]

I haven't looked at the remaining games for Man C. & Liverpool. Is Liverpool's fixture harder? (i.e. Why is Man C. so favoured at this point?)

Manchester City
- Fulham (A) - 19th (March 30 2019)
- Cardiff City (H) - 18th (April 6 2019)
- Crystal Palace (A) - 14th (April 14 2019)
- Tottenham Hotspur (H) - 3rd (April 20 2019)
- Manchester United (A) - 5th (April 24 2019)
- Burnley (A) - 17th (April 28 2019)
- Leicester City (H) - 10th (May 4 2019)
- Brighton (A) - 15th (May 12 2019)

Average ladder position = 12.625

Liverpool
- Fulham (A) - 19th (March 17 2019)
- Tottenham Hotspur (H) - 3rd (March 31 2019)
- Southampton (A) - 16th (April 5 2019)
- Chelsea (H) - 6th (April 14 2019)
- Cardiff City (A) - 18th (April 21 2019)
- Huddersfield Town (H) - 20th (April 26 2019)
- Newcastle United (A) - 13th (May 4 2019)
- Wolves (H) - 7th (May 12 2019)

Average ladder position = 12.75

The difficulty of the fixtures is largely the same. As a matter of fact, you could mount the argument that City's fixture is slightly tougher.

[K]

It's interesting that the odds are so weighted then (70-30). I guess people are judging the quality of the playing squads and saying that past experience matters ("they know what it takes to win", etc.).

Man City have fewer home games than Liverpool, too, though I'm not sure what the home-ground advantage in EPL is like. It looks like the Tottenham games and the Man C. vs Man U game are going to be hugely important.

[Jezza]

Agree, K.

Though I think the lack of faith in Liverpool stems from their near misses of previous seasons. They were leading the title race in both the 2008/2009 and 2013/2014 seasons but they choked under pressure in both seasons handing the titles to Manchester United and City respectively.

Whatever happens, it's going to be an enthralling end to the season not only with respect to the title race, but also with the top 4 and the relegation battle.

[Jezza]

Weekend Matches:

Saturday March 16 2019:
AFC Bournemouth v Newcastle United - 15:00
Burnley v Leicester City - 15:00
West Ham United v Huddersfield Town - 15:00

Sunday March 17 2019:
Fulham v Liverpool - 14:15
Everton v Chelsea - 16:30

All local times

[K]

FiveThirtyEight's predictions:

Man. City 67%
Liverpool 33%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/so ... er-league/

Pretty much the same as the bookies'.

[K]

[K]

Some bookie movement, following Liverpool's 2-1 win over Fulham (with Man. City not playing):

Man. City ~60%
Liverpool ~40%

That's a surprisingly large shift.

[K]

"This was a surprisingly flat showing from Liverpool against a notoriously open Fulham side...
...

But you sense that Manchester City won't struggle like this. Pep Guardiola's side are superior at taking the game to the opposition and converting their possession dominance into outright goal-scoring opportunities, largely thanks to the likes of David Silva, Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne. That remains the area where City have a distinct advantage over Liverpool.

Liverpool might be winning without playing well, but City are winning while also playing well. Despite the old saying, and despite Liverpool returning to the top with this victory, it's City who look better placed for the title."

http://www.espn.com.au/football/blog/th ... eyond-them

[K]

...
Man City have fewer home games than Liverpool, too, though I'm not sure what the home-ground advantage in EPL is like. ...

bettingexpert.com claims these 5-yr averages:

League Home Goals Away Goals Home Advantage
Belgian Pro League 1.62 1.22 +0.40
English Premier League 1.54 1.19 +0.35
French Ligue Un 1.44 1.07 +0.37
German Bundesliga 1.63 1.28 +0.35
Italian Serie A 1.50 1.14 +0.36
Dutch Eredivisie 1.77 1.36 +0.41
Portuguese Primeira 1.46 1.14 +0.32
Russian Premier League 1.39 1.08 +0.31
Scottish Premiership 1.46 1.24 +0.22
Spanish La Liga 1.63 1.13 +0.50

TOTAL 1.55 1.18 +0.37

League Home Win % Draw % Away Win %
English Premier League 44.5% 25.2% 30.3%
Belgian Pro League 46.5% 25.0% 28.5%
French Ligue Un 45.1% 27.4% 27.5%
German Bundesliga 45.4% 24.4% 30.2%
Italian Serie A 45.2% 27.0% 27.8%
Dutch Eredivisie 46.5% 24.3% 29.2%
Portuguese Primeira 44.8% 25.2% 30.0%
Russian Premier League 43.8% 26.5% 29.7%
Scottish Premiership 41.8% 24.2% 34.0%
Spanish La Liga 47.9% 23.5% 28.6%

TOTAL 45.3% 25.3% 29.4%

https://www.bettingexpert.com/how-to/be ... ier-league

[K]

Roeder & Curley write that Home-Field Advantage Doesn’t Mean What It Used To In English Football.





"While a constellation of factors is likely responsible for shifts in advantage, one especially convincing explanation is changes in officiating.
...

... with the rise to prominence of English football over the past 100-plus years came correspondent increases in money, exposure, professionalization, organization, oversight, monitoring and evaluation of the league. All these could have lowered referee bias toward home sides.
...

Soccer’s long-diminishing home-field advantage seems to be the exception in sports, not the rule."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ho ... er-league/



Curley: "... penalty kicks, 66 percent on average since '92, have been awarded to the home team. It used to be as high as 75 percent. Now it's around about 55 percent. If you ask the referees, they're obviously going to say, "No, I was not influenced by the home crowd." And it's hard to know whether it's because the home team carries the play more and therefore more likely to get the call. But it does seem that there are certain ways in which referees do influence games.
...
I used to referee junior soccer and I was influenced by the parents of 11 year olds, so I'd imagine when I've got two parents shouting at me compared to 80,000 shouting at me, I'm sure that there's some subconscious bias going on even if it's not a conscious bias."

[Jezza]

Latest Results:

Saturday March 16 2019:
AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Newcastle United
Burnley 1-2 Leicester City
West Ham United 4-3 Huddersfield Town

Sunday March 17 2019:
Fulham 1-2 Liverpool
Everton 2-0 Chelsea

The Ladder:
1. Liverpool 76 - Played 31
2. Man City 74 - Played 30
3. Tottenham 61 - Played 30
4. Arsenal 60 - Played 30
----------------------
5. Man Utd 58 - Played 30
6. Chelsea 57 - Played 30
7. Wolves 44 - Played 30
8. Watford 43 - Played 30
9. West Ham 42 - Played 31
10. Leicester 41 - Played 31
11. Everton 40 - Played 31
12. Bournemouth 38 - Played 31
13. Newcastle 35 - Played 31
14. Crystal Palace 33 - Played 30
15. Brighton 33 - Played 29
16. Southampton 30 - Played 30
17. Burnley 30 - Played 31
-----------------------
18. Cardiff 28 - Played 30
19. Fulham 17 - Played 31
20. Huddersfield 14 - Played 31

[K]

Maurizio Sarri: Have Chelsea reached their limit under Italian manager?

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47605978

"The worrying aspect for Chelsea fans is that, after seeing their side lose one of nine games over the course of 90 minutes since their 6-0 drubbing by Manchester City in February, their poor away form has come back to haunt them and Sarri seems incapable of turning it around.
...

But the former investment banker rode out the headlines which said he was on the brink of getting sacked. And it seems he is likely to continue for the rest of the season...
...

Chelsea have been through 10 permanent managers since Roman Abramovich took over the club."


[How do you make a career switch from investment banker to football manager?]

[K]

Man City's road to the quadruple is clear, but do they have the energy to complete a historic season?

http://www.espn.com/soccer/club/manches ... ric-season

"Their trip to ... face Fulham on March 30 marks the first of a potential 15 games in 64 days...

No English club has ever achieved a clean sweep of every competition they have entered in a season. Manchester United famously won the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League in 1999, while Liverpool pulled off the league, League Cup and European Cup in 1984. They also won a treble of cup competitions -- FA Cup, League Cup and UEFA Cup -- in 2001."

[Jezza]

Weekend Matches:

Saturday March 30 2019:
Fulham v Manchester City - 12:30
Brighton & Hove Albion v Southampton - 15:00
Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers - 15:00
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield Town - 15:00
Leicester City v AFC Bournemouth - 15:00
Manchester United v Watford - 15:00
West Ham United v Everton - 17:30

Sunday March 31 2019:
Cardiff City v Chelsea - 14:05
Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur - 16:30

Monday April 1 2019:
Arsenal v Newcastle United - 20:00

All local times

[K]

Bookies' odds following Man. City's win:

Man. City 1.36 [~70%]
Liverpool 3.25 [~30%]