It's going to be interesting how it plays out.
You wouldn't think there's many people who would actually switch from Biden to Trump, if they are that disaffected with Biden they're ore likely to just not vote. There'll also be a core of Democrat supporters who will just vote Democrat regardless who is the candidate.
And of course, with their electoral college system it doesn't matter who gets the most votes, it depends where they get them. It will come down to 6 or so swing states.
Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign
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stui magpie
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think positive
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Here's that pre-debate analysis. It's fair to say that its content belies the headline:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-trump- ... =111401519
https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-trump- ... =111401519
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Magpietothemax
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pietillidie
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As I was saying...stubborn old bugger. When you live a life a certain way, and it works, changing isn't going to be easy. He will also think proving his mettle will make him even more likely to win, which is kind of true in most, but not all, circumstances.pietillidie wrote:^My worry is more that he takes his self-talk too seriously. "I'm Joe Biden, I don't give up in the face of adversity...."
Lo and behold, the polls have bounced a bit for him if I'm not mistaken, but that might be beside the point if the swing states don't budge. They have also bounced for Harris, too, just to bolster Biden's hand even further.
Yet, there's still time for a dip in the polls, a trip down the stairs, and a late shift.
Long campaigns turn a carnival into a circus. It might even be that the Supreme Court's bolstering of Trump is starting to look as on the nose as it actually is.
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
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David
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Pretty good article on Biden and the Democrats in The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... n-election
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... n-election
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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stui magpie
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Good article in the Aged about, Age in leaders.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-a ... 5jr30.html
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-a ... 5jr30.html
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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pietillidie
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Scary. Time for some 'assisted euthanasia'!Skids wrote:Latest odds.
Trump - $1.53
Harris - $6
Biden - $7
Actually, Macron's late call might prove a timely example of just where things are now at. The social media electorate has the collective brain of a pea, and can't concentrate or plan for longer than two minutes, so putting someone up very late might work in a way it never would've once. It's not like thinking is involved if Trump is the frontrunner anyway. There is an argument that Trump's most successful strategy is chaos, and the GOP's most successful strategy is using Trump to create chaos. If the attention span is that short, then traditional sensibility has no currency anyhow
Watch them sook if the Dems do that, despite them having invented the approach.
It's justified, because this two sets of rules business has gone on for long enough. So, they can only nullify it by utilising it because it's a parasitism that works because others maintain stability, if that makes sense.
In keeping with this, note that a very common justification for voting for Trump is the belief that others will stop him being deranged because they're sensible. He's a mental case, but he's fun, and the adults will constrain him. The only way you can beat that is to stop being the bunny, which is what Macron did by wrong-footing everyone and giving the crazies a taste of their own medicine.
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
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pietillidie
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^I'm guessing that's catching up with my earlier post noting some better polls for Biden. We were out of sync, so that's more like what I expected. Even so, the betting market would be watching the swing states, so that's still a blowout.
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lazzadesilva
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pietillidie
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And now Biden seems to be tripling down, Trump-style.
So, another implication of damned exaggerated US executive power is that parties in power can't even get rid of their own leader, which again wouldn't happen in a parliamentary system. You hope it's all bluster, but it looks like he will have to literally fall down the stairs to be replaced. Even then he'd still probably opt for a hip replacement over being replaced.
That in turn makes the prospects of Trump even worse, because if Trump goes further off the deep end in office his party won't be able to get rid of him, either. Trump is a bonafide mental case already, so worsening dementia for him is even more frightening on the basis that people's flaws become more pronounced as their brain fades and their habits of personality take over.
So, now the bloke who beat Trump is effectively helping Trump, cancelling out his earlier contribution. The inmates are now fully in control of Asylum USA.
So, another implication of damned exaggerated US executive power is that parties in power can't even get rid of their own leader, which again wouldn't happen in a parliamentary system. You hope it's all bluster, but it looks like he will have to literally fall down the stairs to be replaced. Even then he'd still probably opt for a hip replacement over being replaced.
That in turn makes the prospects of Trump even worse, because if Trump goes further off the deep end in office his party won't be able to get rid of him, either. Trump is a bonafide mental case already, so worsening dementia for him is even more frightening on the basis that people's flaws become more pronounced as their brain fades and their habits of personality take over.
So, now the bloke who beat Trump is effectively helping Trump, cancelling out his earlier contribution. The inmates are now fully in control of Asylum USA.
In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm
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