Ladder predictor 2023

[dalyc]

Melbourne have to be a decent chance to make 3rd.

[Pies2016]

There’s now a lot riding on the Cats v Port game next week. Cats without Hawkins and Blicavs vs a three losses on the spin, Port at the Cattery.
If Port lose that one, the Dees should then have enough up their sleeve to finish either 2nd or 3rd at the end of the home and aways.

[David]

[Skids]

Well after tipping 2 this week, my ladder predictor probably means very little.

1st week of finals I have...

Pies (1st) v D's (4th) MCG
Port (2nd) v Lions (3rd) Adelaide
GWS (5th v Cats (8th) Sydney
Crows (6th) v Dogs (7th) Adelaide

2nd week

D's v GWS
Lions v Crows

Prelims

Pies v Lions

Port v Giants

GF

PIES v Giants

[David]

[Raw Hammer]

Unless Pies defeat Bris, we’ll likely fall to 3rd without 2 more wins. Diabolical.

[swoop42]

Fair to say the Brisbane game is already looming large and if we only win one more H&A game for the year that's the one we want.

Failure to win that match, with a single victory in either of the other 2 games, might well not be enough to secure a top 2 position given how close the percentage is between us, Melbourne and Brisbane.

Of course that relies on the assumption that Melbourne and Brisbane win their 3 remaining games.

Hate to say it but for 1 week only, go Blues!

[David]

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

I’ve just done the ladder predictor.
I have done in all types of combinations as well
It is either we play Melbourne or port at the mcg 9 out of 10 times the only way or venue we and if we play them lions is at the mcg.
This is from us winning all 3 to loss all 3 and them as well in all kinds of combinations

[David]

Taking a closer look at the top four and how it relates to us:

Port Adelaide won't catch us (or either of the other teams) on percentage whatever happens, so they're effectively a game behind. Melbourne and Brisbane are very close to each other on percentage (Melbourne is currently ahead by 1.1%) and there's little indication from their draw who will finish higher if they end up on the same points. Both are 2.7% and 3.8% behind us respectively, and you'd expect both of them to make up that gap if we end up on the same points (given that we're losing games and they're winning).

• Melbourne should start favourites in all three games and shouldn't have any trouble against Hawthorn, but both Carlton and Sydney (in Sydney) are danger games for them.
• Brisbane have two games you'd pencil in as wins (against Adelaide and St Kilda at the Gabba) and one against us at Marvel.
• Port Adelaide have a game they should easily win against Richmond in Adelaide, and otherwise will probably start slight favourites against GWS (in Adelaide) and Fremantle (in Perth).

If all three win their last three games, we would finish 4th if we lose all three, 3rd if we only win one game (against Geelong or Essendon), 2nd if our only win comes against Brisbane, and 1st if we win two or more.

So any one of these outcomes guarantees us a home qualifying final:

• Beating Brisbane
• Beating one of Geelong or Essendon and either Brisbane or Melbourne lose a single game from here.

Whereas this scenario ensures we finish 3rd and play Melbourne at the MCG:

• Beating one of Geelong or Essendon and Brisbane wins its three games by more, finishing above Melbourne on percentage

If we lose all three games, there's probably somewhere between a 33% and 50% chance that we play Melbourne in week 1, which would again come down to percentage between them and Brisbane and/or whether one drops a game. (There are also some possible scenarios where we finish 3rd or 4th after losing our last three games and face an away final against Port, but this is the least likely outcome of the three.)

[Skids]

The percentage is going to determine where a lot of teams finish on the ladder.

We dropped 4% last week with just a 32 point loss, so the 2.7% & 3.8% lead we have over D's & Lions can be evaporated in the blink of an eye.

We have to win on Friday night & get our mojo back.

[RudeBoy]

The bottom line is if we are unable to win 2 of our remaining 3 games, we are not good enough for September success.

I tend to be a glass half full kinda guy, so expect we will will do that comfortably and more likely win all 3 of our remaining h & a games. Beating the Cats should help us get our mojo back.

[LaurieHolden]

The latest simulations suggest that there are still 10 teams with a 2-in-5 or better chance of playing Finals, with seven teams realistically competing for four of the eight spots.

Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:

Collingwood: certain of finishing Top 4; and about 75% chance of being Minor Premier

Brisbane Lions: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and about 20% chance of being Minor Premier

Port Adelaide and Melbourne: certain of being finalists; almost certain of finishing Top 4; and about 1 to 4% chance of being Minor Premier

Carlton and Western Bulldogs: 85% chance of being finalists; 2 to 7% chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

GWS, Geelong, and Sydney: 45 to 60% chance of being finalists; little or no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

St Kilda and Adelaide: 25 to 40% chance of being finalists; little to no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

Essendon, Richmond, and Gold Coast: 1 to 7% chance of being finalists; no chance of finishing Top 4; and no chance of being Minor Premier

Fremantle, Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier

Source :
http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-simulations

[David]

[RudeBoy]

You could well be right David, but I'm tipping:

Lions to beat the Crows.
Blues to beat Dees.
Port to beat GWS.