Russian invasion of Ukraine

[pietillidie]

^Part of me wants the same, but it likely feeds into Putin's objectives. Consider 7 potential motives, which presumably overlap to some degree:

1. The flagging dictator trying to write his name into imperial history

2. The flagging dictator trying to shore up home support

3. The nutcase who has lost the plot

If it's any of those, escalation will only feed him.

4. The paranoid dimwit who actually believes people think Russia is worth invading

Ukraine will never bend to his will to become his personal buffer state, and desperately wants to move on from this role. The longer things go, the more Ukraine breaks the shackles and moves into the Western sphere of influence, even if the bastard steals more land.

5. The economic loser who fears waning influence in the region and losing the ability to blackmail everyone

If it's this, the longer things go the weaker he gets.

6. The economic loser who can only grow an economy by theft and appropriation

Ukraine will never bend to his will to become his colonial bread basket, and will ever keep fighting to block this from happening. The longer things go, the weaker he gets, assuming Ukraine's resistance is well-armed.

7. The economic loser who can only maintain revenues by destabilising the planet, driving up inflation, and setting the green transition back 30 years.

Escalation plays into his hands by destabilising the market further, while delay weakens him.

So, I think overall delay weakens him most. It also has the most upside in terms of weakening him at home. Meanwhile, as long as Ukraine wants to fight, and we keep supplying them, keep supporting refugees and help them rebuild eventually, this is also morally justified.

Of course, if he escalates beyond that further response comes into play, but it weakens him still further at home. This is a bloke who relies on fake justification for everything, which at least shows he needs justification at home.

Again, I'm not confident enough to stake a strong position on this, but I guess something like the above is why escalation is being avoided.

[Jezza]

Set up a no fly zone and you likely risk starting WW3.

It's not worth it.

[pietillidie]

^Yes, that's the potential bottomless cost on the other side of the equation. So if you can achieve your goal without bringing that risk into play, there's no reason to go there under current circumstances. As long as Ukrainians are up for the fight over the long haul, though, which I think it's clear they are.

[stui magpie]

@Ptiddy

You make very good points, but delay has to be a finite option. Time limited. In the meantime innocent Ukranians and yes innocent Russians, suffer. Ukranians more because they're the ones being bombed and shot at.

Where is the tipping point? I don't know, you potentially save lives by putting 100 times that number at risk. Not a choice I'd want to have to make.

[pietillidie]

^Totally agree. It wouldn't take much for me to be persuaded to escalate. Got to get Ukrainians out of harm's way and limit losses in the meantime, that's for certain.

I'm not confident of anything I'm saying, though; just trying to reason through it. Eff that SOB.

[Jezza]

^Yes, that's the potential bottomless cost on the other side of the equation. So if you can achieve your goal without bringing that risk into play, there's no reason to go there under current circumstances. As long as Ukrainians are up for the fight over the long haul, though, which I think it's clear they are.

Ukrainians will be up for the fight.

Russia cannot afford for this to go on too long. Their economy is suffering under the weight of sanctions and wars are not cheap.

[WhyPhilWhy?]

You’re just a sheep who can’t think without being told how to by the mainstream media.

Is there a term for a sheep that thinks everyone else are sheep but doesn't see it in themselves?

[roar]

Set up a no fly zone and you likely risk starting WW3.

It's not worth it.

Ukranians may disagree with that.

[David]

[pietillidie]

Interesting work looking at coordinated propaganda spread via official Russian mission accounts that manage to avoid Twitter censorship:

Twitter deleted several tweets making the "FAKE" claim, after the BBC flagged them. Yet there are many other examples of Russian disinformation still up on the Russian government's Twitter accounts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-60790821

[stui magpie]

Meanwhile, ordinary Russians have had the internet killed to prevent information flow.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/202 ... /100917662

[pietillidie]

If this bloke's a Russian military expert you can see why the rest of us are struggling to work out what's going on:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... t-00018906

[David]

[stui magpie]

It was a good article. There's so much info out there, every amateur epidemiologist is now an amateur Russia and Putin expert.

Latest rumor is a cabal of Russian Oligarchs are pissed at having their yachts impounded and assets frozen and are preparing a coup against Putin.

We can only hope.

It wouldn't make things much better for the Russian people as the newly installed dictator would be beholding to the Oligarchs, but it would stop the war.

[David]

Hitler did this too: https://www.axios.com/ukraine-ban-polit ... 0fd5f.html

#IStandWithRussia.

While Ukraine’s internal politics and power-plays seem a distinctly second-order problem right now, this is a bad decision on Zelenskyy’s part on a number of levels, as this piece explains:

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022 ... ia-parties