Australian federal election 2022

[doriswilgus]

I wonder how the good folk at News Ltd and Sky News are feeling today?I hope they're all okay down there.I know how difficult this must be for all of them.

Thinking of you guys at this sad time.
xoox Doris.

[Dave The Man]

[Pies4shaw]

I wonder how the good folk at News Ltd and Sky News are feeling today?I hope they're all okay down there.I know how difficult this must be for all of them.

Thinking of you guys at this sad time.
xoox Doris.

Not as bad as Palmer - at least they didn't pay large quantities of unmarked bills for the dubious privilege of making themselves look like prawns in public.

[Dark Beanie]

Thank goodness the Yellow nufties didn't get anywhere.
What a waste of millions of dollars.

[Pies4shaw]

^ The song was terrible. It cost them.

[Dark Beanie]

OMG.
Now I have that stupid tune in my head.
That and the freakin Hole in the Bucket...

[stui magpie]

Thank goodness the Yellow nufties didn't get anywhere.
What a waste of millions of dollars.

Looks like it's going to come out at about $70 per vote. Not exactly value for money, and really little to no influence on any outcome.

[David]

[eddiesmith]

But it’s ok for millionaires to buy seats, just not billionaires?

[Pies4shaw]

To win the next State election in Victoria, the LNP needs a uniform 10.3% swing against the ALP - and to it. That's not going to happen.

There wasn't even a uniform Victorian swing in last night's election. What actually happened is that the ALP generally picked up votes everywhere it could win an election against the Libs but there was obviously a lot of strategic voting - plenty of progressives shifted their vote to Green and a lot of ALP voters in hopeless electorates obviously backed the anti-Lib climate change candidates in otherwise safe Liberal seats.

It's too difficult to do a seat by seat swing analysis to and from the ALP at this stage, given the way the votes are being reported as two-party preferred (many in places where the ALP isn’t one of the two parties) but one can see, out of the 37 Victorian Federal electorates, that on a two-party preferred basis:

- There was a swing to the ALP in 18 of the 37 seats;
- There was a swing to the Greens in 3 safe ALP seats;
- There was a swing to the Libs in 8 safe ALP seats;
- There was a swing against the ALP in 3 safe country Lib/Nat seats;
- There were massive swings to independents against the Libs or Nats in 4 seats, 2 of which changed hands;
- No swing is available in Bruce (I don’t understand why), which the ALP holds comfortably.

I have little interest in how what-passes-for-a-brains-trust-at-the-ALP thinks about these things but I suppose they might be thinking that:

- it doesn’t matter what happens in the bush, where they trail by margins of 25% or more;
- getting people to unite behind independents to dislodge or nearly dislodge safe Liberals at the expense of ALP two-party preferred votes is neither here nor there;
- the real threat in ALP-voting electorates is from the Greens.

Thus, far from being concerned about what the result might mean for Victoria, I reckon the State ALP would take huge comfort from these numbers. The ALP vote held or improved everywhere it mattered.

I've clarified the position in Bruce by looking at the Ausralian Electoral Commission's live vote count. No swing is identified in Bruce because there has been no swing (it's actually -.02% from the ALP, if anyone cares - at a rough calculation, that's a change of literally under 10 votes since last time). The ALP candidate leads by a whisker under 10,000 votes (39,000 to 29,000).

[stui magpie]

Thank goodness the Yellow nufties didn't get anywhere.
What a waste of millions of dollars.

Looks like it's going to come out at about $70 per vote. Not exactly value for money, and really little to no influence on any outcome.

Just to elaborate on that, if a party gets 4% of the vote they get electoral funding from the AEC of $2.914 per vote.

At the moment, UAP has 4.3% of the vote and is on track to get around 1M votes.

So for an expenditure of apparently $70M, Clive gets back $2.9M and no seats.

Holmes a Court's model seems to have better ROI.

[Pies4shaw]

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/ ... /101089958

South Australia will have two Greens senators for the first time since 2016, while Nick Xenophon and Rex Patrick have almost certainly failed to get elected.

One Nation has received the highest vote of any party after Labor, the Liberals and the Greens, but its lead candidate is not hopeful of becoming South Australia's sixth representative in the upper house.

With 592,000 South Australian Senate votes counted as of 4pm ACST, the Liberal Party has won two quotas, the Labor the same and the Greens just under one.

One Nation received 4.1 per cent of the vote, ahead of the United Australia Party on 3.3 per cent.

The ungrouped candidates, which included former senators Nick Xenophon, Stirling Griff and Bob Day, also received 3.3 per cent of the vote, while Senator Patrick received 2.1 per cent.

[David]

[Pies4shaw]

^ Some suggestions the ALP is going to get the 76 they'd like, despite the Greenslide, so the more Greens in the Senate, the merrier. It's going to be 11 or 12.