The "Official Nick's BB" Trump Impeachment thread!

[David]

[stui magpie]

^

Lovely thoughts, good luck with that.

Tribalism is, to an extent, humanity. When you have large number of people as passionate, if not more so, about their political party than their football team (including many here) it will take the kind of leadership we've rarely seen before to achieve that.

[Jezza]

Trump has been impeached.

This is the beginning of the end for the Democrats!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-19/ ... s/11799458

[Wokko]

The House has voted to impeach (imagine my shock).

2 Dems voted Nay
Tulsi Gabbard voted "Present"

Everyone else went on party lines. 2/3 of the Senate must now vote guilty to remove Trump from office. Considering the party line vote in the House this is 0 chance.

Making impeachment political is so, so stupid. There'll be a time when a Dem president is facing a Republican house and Senate and the Republicans will want payback. Like changing Supreme court nominations from 2/3 to simple majority this will come back and bite the Democrats in the arse.

On the second article 3 Dems voted Nay, Tulsi Gabbard joined the Nays.

[think positive]

beat me to it, no way it passes!

[Jezza]

Trump's personal approval ratings are rising.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/12/ ... pular.html

A majority oppose impeachment and removal of Trump.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... oll-106226

[Pies4shaw]

There's a reasonable amount of partisan nonsense being driveled abroad. It is, of course, true that a "majority oppose impeachment and removal of Trump". The "minority" who support it is, as we write, about 46% of the US population.

The real question, though, in a political sense is not whether people support or impose impeachment but what all of this means for their overall view of the presidency of Trump.

By comparison with the Clinton impeachment process, Clinton's approval rating never fell below 56% throughout the period between 17 January 1998 (when he first denied certain things) and 12 February 1999 (when the Senate voted to reject impeachment) and when the House voted to impeach him, his approval rating actually shot up 10% (from 61% to 71%).

By contrast, at present, Trump's important numbers are not much different from what they've ever been:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

Thus, he's almost exactly as disapproved and approved as he was 12 months ago.

And his polling against Biden doesn't look great, for what that is worth: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html

Here's a sensible analysis of the figures: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... e-learned/

[stui magpie]

^

Trumps approval rating won't really fluctuate unless he does something that disenfranchises his supporter base, and even then they're unlikely to vote Democrat, more likely to just not vote.

There's not a lot of swinging voters when it comes to Trump.

[Pies4shaw]

I’m not in the business of arguing whether it should or shouldn’t. I’m just observing that it hasn’t.

[stui magpie]

I’m not in the business of arguing whether it should or shouldn’t. I’m just observing that it hasn’t.

Then we're in the same business except I was observing why it wont.

[Pies4shaw]

So, we both agree that, despite Jezza’s post, Trump’s approval isn’t rising? It feels a little like you’re taking issue with things I’m saying on matters that have not much at all to do with the point of my post.

[stui magpie]

You are good, but you assume responding is taking issue. I'm not arguing against your point, simply adding a qualifier.

[Pies4shaw]

Fair enough.

[Wokko]

Obama's number were similar, it's about an energized base not raw approval.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -1044.html

[Wokko]