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Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:53 pm
by K
R5 Line
BetEasy: Collingwood (-8.5); Essendon (-8.5); West Coast (-30.5); GWS (-29.5);
Western Bulldogs (-19.5); Adelaide (-40.5); Geelong (-9.5).
sportsbet: Collingwood (-9.5); Essendon (-8.5); West Coast (-28.5); GWS (-30.5);
Melbourne (-22.5); Richmond (-4.5); Western Bulldogs (-15.5); Adelaide (-35.5); Geelong (-12.5).
R5 H2H
BetEasy: Collingwood 1.60 (2.30); Essendon 1.60 (2.30); West Coast 1.21 (4.20); GWS 1.23 (4.00);
Melbourne 1.28 (3.60); Rich/Syd 1.90 (1.90); Western Bulldogs 1.36 (3.10); Adelaide 1.12 (5.75); Geelong 1.57 (2.35).
sportsbet: Collingwood 1.55 (2.35); Essendon 1.56 (2.33); West Coast 1.20 (4.25); GWS 1.17 (4.65);
Melbourne 1.28 (3.45); Richmond 1.68 (2.10); Western Bulldogs 1.38 (2.91); Adelaide 1.13 (5.40);
Geelong 1.46 (2.58 ).
Posted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:02 pm
by K
So BetEasy thinks there's a 74% chance Port will beat Richmond.
And a 78% chance the Pies will beat Liam Picken's boys.
Posted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:48 pm
by Skids
Pies crunched into $1.24.
Posted: Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:48 pm
by K
The Beams out doesn't seem to have had any effect.
Posted: Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:13 pm
by K
K wrote:So BetEasy thinks there's a 74% chance Port will beat Richmond.
...
Well, that didn't go the way the punters thought.
The market's going at about 50% right now. You'd reckon that'd improve as the season goes on, once it becomes more obvious which teams are having good or bad years.
Posted: Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:34 pm
by K
R5 Line
BetEasy: Collingwood (-7.5); Essendon (-6.5); West Coast (-26.5); GWS (-35.5);
Melbourne (-16.5); Richmond (-16.5); Western Bulldogs (-18.5); Adelaide (-29.5); Geelong (-14.5).
sportsbet: Collingwood (-7.5); Essendon (-5.5); West Coast (-26.5); GWS (-33.5);
Melbourne (-15.5); Richmond (-16.5); Western Bulldogs (-18.5); Adelaide (-29.5); Geelong (-14.5).
TAB: Collingwood (-7.5); Essendon (-5.5); West Coast (-25.5); GWS (-35.5);
Melbourne (-15.5); Richmond (-16.5); Western Bulldogs (-17.5); Adelaide (-28.5); Geelong (-13.5).
R5 H2H
BetEasy: Collingwood 1.68 (2.25); Essendon 1.70 (2.15); West Coast 1.23 (4.20); GWS 1.13 (6.00);
Melbourne 1.43 (2.85); Richmond 1.43 (2.85); Western Bulldogs 1.38 (3.05); Adelaide 1.20 (4.60);
Geelong 1.47 (2.70).
sportsbet: Collingwood 1.63 (2.20); Essendon 1.66 (2.15); West Coast 1.20 (4.20); GWS 1.13 (5.40);
Melbourne 1.40 (2.80); Richmond 1.39 (2.85); Western Bulldogs 1.37 (2.95); Adelaide 1.20 (4.25);
Geelong 1.42 (2.73).
TAB: Collingwood 1.65 (2.30); Essendon 1.70 (2.20); West Coast 1.26 (4.00); GWS 1.14 (6.00);
Melbourne 1.44 (2.90); Richmond 1.42 (3.00); Western Bulldogs 1.40 (3.10); Adelaide 1.20 (4.80);
Geelong 1.46 (2.80).
Posted: Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:45 pm
by K
R6 Line
BetEasy: Richmond (-5.5); Brisbane (-10.5); Adelaide (-8.5); Fremantle (-7.5);
GWS (-9.5); Hawthorn (-32.5); Geelong (-10.5).
sportsbet: Richmond (-5.5); Collingwood (-12.5); Port (-12.5); Brisbane (-11.5);
Adelaide (-8.5); Fremantle (-5.5); GWS (-10.5); Hawthorn (-30.5); Geelong (-6.5).
R6 H2H
BetEasy: Richmond 1.70 (2.12); Collingwood 1.50 (2.55); Port 1.45 (2.75); Brisbane 1.58 (2.35);
Adelaide 1.63 (2.25); Fremantle 1.65 (2.20); GWS 1.57 (2.35); Hawthorn 1.18 (4.75); Geelong 1.55 (2.40).
sportsbet: Richmond 1.69 (2.18 ); Collingwood 1.46 (2.58 ); Port 1.45 (2.61); Brisbane 1.50 (2.47);
Adelaide 1.56 (2.33); Fremantle 1.66 (2.14); GWS 1.53 (2.39); Hawthorn 1.17 (4.65); Geelong 1.63 (2.20).
Posted: Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:33 pm
by K
With one game left in R5, the market is at 50%. If you've tipped 60+%, you're doing very well.
Posted: Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:06 pm
by Skids
Got a nice multi that round.
Did a 2 leg - M.Crouch/P.Wright (30 possessions/3 goals) into Cats at the line (-11.5) @ 14/1.... 2 metre Peter, kicking his 3rd with a minute on the clock was sweet, listening in the ute after an hour safety meeting.
I came out of the meeting and checked fanfooty, thought the game was over, bugger.... Wright had kicked 2.3, Crouch had 34, just missed
Got in the car, and the game was still going!..... 2 minutes to go!!!!
Wright kicks his 3rd, GC only kicked 6 all day.
Makes a game of footy, so much fun
Posted: Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:21 pm
by Skids
K wrote:R6 Line
BetEasy: Richmond (-5.5); Brisbane (-10.5); Adelaide (-8.5); Fremantle (-7.5);
GWS (-9.5); Hawthorn (-32.5); Geelong (-10.5).
sportsbet: Richmond (-5.5); Collingwood (-12.5); Port (-12.5); Brisbane (-11.5);
Adelaide (-8.5); Fremantle (-5.5); GWS (-10.5); Hawthorn (-30.5); Geelong (-6.5).
R6 H2H
BetEasy: Richmond 1.70 (2.12); Collingwood 1.50 (2.55); Port 1.45 (2.75); Brisbane 1.58 (2.35);
Adelaide 1.63 (2.25); Fremantle 1.65 (2.20); GWS 1.57 (2.35); Hawthorn 1.18 (4.75); Geelong 1.55 (2.40).
sportsbet: Richmond 1.69 (2.18 ); Collingwood 1.46 (2.58 ); Port 1.45 (2.61); Brisbane 1.50 (2.47);
Adelaide 1.56 (2.33); Fremantle 1.66 (2.14); GWS 1.53 (2.39); Hawthorn 1.17 (4.65); Geelong 1.63 (2.20).
Some early big movers!
Tigers into 1.41 (1.7)
Port into 1.25 (1.45)
Lions into 1.38 (1.58 )
Freo 1.39 (1.65)
The difference between this 4 leg multi early... and now, is massive!!!
If youn got on it at the open, you got 13/2. Now, you'll get around 5/2.
4 certainties
let's see....
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:41 pm
by Skids
Done a multi on Wednesday nights game..
Richmond 1-39
Martin more than 25 touches
Petracca more than 25 touches
36/1 x $10
NRL bet too
Roosters win
Tupou anytime try
1st try inside 8 minutes
7/2 x $25
Little nibble on the Pies by 40+ and any player to kick 5 goals @ 12/1 x $25
Happy punting!
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:52 pm
by K
R6 Line
BetEasy: Richmond (-14.5); Collingwood (-8.5); Port (-26.5); Brisbane (-14.5);
St. Kilda (-1.5); Fremantle (-15.5); GWS (-14.5); Hawthorn (-19.5); Geelong (-16.5).
sportsbet: Richmond (-13.5); Collingwood (-8.5); Port (-26.5); Brisbane (-14.5);
St. Kilda (-1.5); Fremantle (-15.5); GWS (-13.5); Hawthorn (-19.5); Geelong (-16.5).
TAB: Richmond (-13.5); Collingwood (-8.5); Port (-27.5); Brisbane (-13.5);
St. Kilda (-2.5); Fremantle (-17.5); GWS (-13.5); Hawthorn (-19.5); Geelong (-18.5).
R6 H2H
BetEasy: Richmond 1.48 (2.75); Collingwood 1.62 (2.30); Port 1.23 (4.25); Brisbane 1.47 (2.70);
St. Kilda 1.85 (1.95); Fremantle 1.44 (2.80); GWS 1.48 (2.65); Hawthorn 1.35 (3.20); Geelong 1.42 (2.90).
sportsbet: Richmond 1.46 (2.60); Collingwood 1.60 (2.25); Port 1.25 (3.70); Brisbane 1.42 (2.75);
St. Kilda 1.80 (2.00); Fremantle 1.43 (2.70); GWS 1.44 (2.65); Hawthorn 1.31 (3.25); Geelong 1.43 (2.70).
TAB: Richmond 1.50 (2.70); Collingwood 1.62 (2.35); Port 1.26 (4.00); Brisbane 1.50 (2.70);
St. Kilda 1.85 (2.00); Fremantle 1.44 (2.90); GWS 1.50 (2.70); Hawthorn 1.36 (3.30); Geelong 1.44 (2.90).
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:03 pm
by Skids
K wrote:R6 Line
BetEasy: Richmond (-16.5); ...
sportsbet: Richmond (-15.5); ...
TAB: Richmond (-15.5); ...
R6 H2H
BetEasy: Richmond 1.42 (2.90); ...
sportsbet: Richmond 1.43 (2.70); ...
TAB: Richmond 1.44 (2.90); ...
If I had a book, I'd have Richmond at $1.12 and the fags at $4.50
How any betting agency opened the Tigers at $1.70 is remarkable, someone will probably lose their job over that bungle. Melbourne couldn't beat time with a stick.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:06 pm
by K
Well, if there was a rush of small bets, they had time to adjust. The risk is if there's one huge bet of e.g. $50,000 and that guy wins.
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:13 pm
by Skids
K wrote:Well, if there was a rush of small bets, they had time to adjust. The risk is if there's one huge bet of e.g. $50,000 and that guy wins.
They would never bet that K, they take a bit (about $100) at those odds, then throw you shorter odds for the balance.
The commercial bookies are gutless wonders, they all wait for others to frame their market and panic when a punter pulls out a handful of pineapples.
Miss the bookie rings at the races in the 70's & 80's... there was punters/bookies with balls of steal. Today, they're all mathematicians wnking in their fluffy ducks, with bimbos and mirrors on the balcony at Crown.