Victorian State Election 2022

[Jezza]

2018 result

PRIMARY
- Labor = 42.9% (55 seats)
- Coalition = 35.2% (27 seats)
- Greens = 10.7% (3 seats)
- Other = 11.2% (3 seats)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 57.3%
- Coalition = 42.7%


Most recent polls

Resolve Strategic (October 28]

PRIMARY
- Labor = 38%
- Coalition = 31%
- Greens = 12%
- Other = 18%

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 59%
- Coalition = 41%

Newspoll (October 31-November 3)

PRIMARY
- Labor = 37%
- Coalition = 37%
- Greens = 13%
- Other = 13%

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 54%
- Coalition = 46%

Freshwater Strategy (November 3-6 2022)

PRIMARY
- Labor = 37%
- Coalition = 34%
- Greens = 14%
- Other = 15%

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 56%
- Coalition = 44%

[Jezza]

Lastly: please vote below the line, and tell everyone you know to do the same! A 1 in the top line on the legislative council ballot is a decision to send your vote out into the wilderness. You could be voting for someone you like and end up contributing to the election of some random weirdo or even someone on the entirely opposite end of the political spectrum. All that stuff is figured out behind the scenes in arcane preference deals. It takes a little longer, sure, but at least numbering your own candidates ensures your own preferences matter.

The voting system for the upper house is archaic.

Can't believe there hasn't been any reform in this area.

[David]

[stui magpie]

I'll be very interested to see what happens in my seat, Bundoora. It's been a safe Labor seat and a slight boundary move shouldn't impact that, but there's a lot of people who were pissed off with lockdowns and are pissed off at the massive destruction work that is the North East link.

The demographics of the seat are all over the shop but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big swing to Libs and Greens

[nomadjack]

I'll be very interested to see what happens in my seat, Bundoora. It's been a safe Labor seat and a slight boundary move shouldn't impact that, but there's a lot of people who were pissed off with lockdowns and are pissed off at the massive destruction work that is the North East link.

The demographics of the seat are all over the shop but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big swing to Libs and Greens

Wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it Stui. Local member (Colin Brooks) has been around for donkey's years and is still quite popular (actually a nice guy too). The TPP vote in the seat has also tracked almost identical to the state vote since 2010, so unless there is a massive swing on state-wide, I'd doubt you'll see anything significant across Bundoora. There's also no stand-out independent or Greens candidate. The Greens only pulled 8% last time, so you might see a little bit of growth there, but I'd be pretty surprised if Labor polled under low 60s for the TPP or if the seat got taken to preferences.

[stui magpie]

I won't be holding my breath Nomad, part from liking to see Andrews out on his arse I have little invested in the outcome. The interest is more from an observation perspective, to see if the antipathy toward Andrews in the local community translates into a swing at the ballot box.

[Jezza]

Roy Morgan poll published yesterday said the following:

PRIMARY
- Labor = 40%
- Coalition = 29%
- Greens = 11.5%
- Other = 19.5%

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED
- Labor = 57%
- Coalition = 43%

The Liberals have also decided to preference the Greens ahead of Labor, which increases the likelihood of minority government.

https://twitter.com/KosSamaras/status/1 ... 5385094144

[David]

That preferencing decision is certainly unexpected (and cuts against nearly a decade's precedent in state and federal politics). Maybe they're trying to play the long game in the hopes that getting more Greens MPs up in lower house seats weakens Labor in the long run? Or, maybe just the hope that it'll make the next government more chaotic/unpopular, and help them get back in in 2026?

[think positive]

[stui magpie]

Voting done. Now I just have to figure out how to get Mum in for the early voting, it's too far for her to walk from anywhere nearby I can park, I may have to take the Mobility Scooter over in the ute. PITA but I suppose we could make a part day out of it.

[think positive]

you have until Friday to put in for a postal vote.

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-17/ ... /101664266

Victoria's electoral commission has asked the state's anti-corruption watchdog to pick up an investigation into Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and his former chief of staff, claiming it has not received "full cooperation" from relevant parties.

[stui magpie]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-17/ ... /101663588

Mr Druery explains in one video that he charged $55,000 to minor parties for optimising their preferences in order to win seats in Victoria's upper house.

He said he helped set up the Sack Dan Andrews party to draw preference votes away from other parties.

"I could have called it the Pro Jet Trails Party, I could have called it the Port Arthur Conspiracy, I could have called it the Whacko Crazy Lunatics Party but I didn't," he said.

"If that gets a decent draw it's going to completely usurp Clive [Palmer's United Australia Party], One Nation and poor little Aidan [McLindon's Freedom Party]."

[Jezza]

A consolation goal for Guy, but Andrews still leads 4-1 in the IBAC investigations scoreboard

[Jezza]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-17/calls-for-group-voting-ticket-reform-victoria/101663588

Mr Druery explains in one video that he charged $55,000 to minor parties for optimising their preferences in order to win seats in Victoria's upper house.

He said he helped set up the Sack Dan Andrews party to draw preference votes away from other parties.

"I could have called it the Pro Jet Trails Party, I could have called it the Port Arthur Conspiracy, I could have called it the Whacko Crazy Lunatics Party but I didn't," he said.

"If that gets a decent draw it's going to completely usurp Clive [Palmer's United Australia Party], One Nation and poor little Aidan [McLindon's Freedom Party]."

Vote below the line to avoid this.

Victoria's electoral system is archaic as I said earlier.