#1 Patrick Lipinski

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Dave The Man
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Post by Dave The Man »

I think Dogs want something in the 40's and we Offer Pick 58 and we have no Reason to up our Offer

So could go to Final Hour of Trade Period
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Post by npalm »

E wrote: We wanted to use the points on Reef based on our then current later picks so we could then do a trade to bring in more early picks. the points are assessed based on available picks at the time of the deal. If Reef dropped, the other trades wouldn't have worked the way they did.
I'm impressed by the nous and boldness displayed by the clubs in the way they work their way thru strategies such as the one described above.

People have been quick to praise GW for the actions taken so far during this trade period but clearly we have had very capable people working in this area in previous years. And I wonder if it's actually GW supplying the smarts in the current trade period at the moment, or is it one of long term football ops guys.

I also can't help wondering if some club, hopefully not the pies, is going to outsmart themselves and badly cock-up one of these trades one day and make a laughing stock of themselves. Please let it be Carlton.
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Post by inxs88 »

npalm wrote:
E wrote: We wanted to use the points on Reef based on our then current later picks so we could then do a trade to bring in more early picks. the points are assessed based on available picks at the time of the deal. If Reef dropped, the other trades wouldn't have worked the way they did.
I'm impressed by the nous and boldness displayed by the clubs in the way they work their way thru strategies such as the one described above.

People have been quick to praise GW for the actions taken so far during this trade period but clearly we have had very capable people working in this area in previous years. And I wonder if it's actually GW supplying the smarts in the current trade period at the moment, or is it one of long term football ops guys.



I also can't help wondering if some club, hopefully not the pies, is going to outsmart themselves and badly cock-up one of these trades one day and make a laughing stock of themselves. Please let it be Carlton.

Can you please enlighten all of us on Nick's as to who the "stig" or genius footy ops guy we have had in the past and what he or she actually did?
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Post by Presti35 »

hermie wrote:stuff the bulldogs after the bs with the Trelor trade last year, let him walk through
Yeah thats kind of what I think too... but there's always that chance he slips to someone else, so I guess I still want to trade and use that PSD pick on someone else that might be there.
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Post by MJ23 »

Dave The Man wrote:I think Dogs want something in the 40's and we Offer Pick 58 and we have no Reason to up our Offer

So could go to Final Hour of Trade Period
Right now we shouldn't do anything lower pick 55.

IF we gave pick 48 as an example, we would be reduced to 2291 points right now. 2400 gets us Nick IF he is bid on by north at pick one but if there are any other compo picks provided between now and then the points slide back.

Picks 43 and 46 are worth more points and the further below 2400 we would go.

Now we could go into deficit an if we are not too far below 2400 it wont actually change next years pick position. But I'd be pushing hard not to do that just out of principle.
Last edited by MJ23 on Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Macattacks »

MJ23 wrote: Right now we shouldn't do anything lower pick 55.

IF we gave pick 46 as an example, we would be reduced to 2415 points right now. 2400 gets us Nick IF he is bid on by north at pick one but if there are any other compo picks provided between now and then the points slide back 16.

Picks 45 and 39 are worth more points and the further below 2400 we would go.

Now we could go into deficit an if we are not too far below 2400 it wont actually change next years pick position. But I'd be pushing hard not to do that just out of principle.
Need to match any bid for Dib after 20 too
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Post by MJ23 »

^ correct......IF we value him worth those points between pick 20-40. After that he is free. If that happens then we need between 730 to 343pts.

If Daicos is taken pick 2 we probably have it covered.
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Post by Pies2016 »

Macattacks wrote:
MJ23 wrote: Right now we shouldn't do anything lower pick 55.

IF we gave pick 46 as an example, we would be reduced to 2415 points right now. 2400 gets us Nick IF he is bid on by north at pick one but if there are any other compo picks provided between now and then the points slide back 16.

Picks 45 and 39 are worth more points and the further below 2400 we would go.

Now we could go into deficit an if we are not too far below 2400 it wont actually change next years pick position. But I'd be pushing hard not to do that just out of principle.
Need to match any bid for Dib after 20 too
If Dib is called out between pick 20 and 40, then the “ traditional “ NGA discount of 20 % comes off the points value at where the bid came in. Anything after pick 40, should we choose to match that bid, we would take him with whatever our next available pick happens to be. I would be very surprised if Dib is called out before pick 40.

There is a deficit buffer where you can go into deficit up to around 300 odd points ( ? ) without it impacting your position in next years draft BUT that amount also depends at what pick the bid was matched. I’m best guessing here but if Daicos was called at #2, we would could potentially go into deficit of couple hundred points and not impose any draft position penalties in 2022.
( Magpie Russ explained it well earlier on here but I’m going from memory )
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Post by MJ23 »

Pies2016 wrote:
Macattacks wrote:
MJ23 wrote: Right now we shouldn't do anything lower pick 55.

IF we gave pick 46 as an example, we would be reduced to 2415 points right now. 2400 gets us Nick IF he is bid on by north at pick one but if there are any other compo picks provided between now and then the points slide back 16.

Picks 45 and 39 are worth more points and the further below 2400 we would go.

Now we could go into deficit an if we are not too far below 2400 it wont actually change next years pick position. But I'd be pushing hard not to do that just out of principle.
Need to match any bid for Dib after 20 too
If Dib is called out between pick 20 and 40, then the “ traditional “ NGA discount of 20 % comes off the points value at where the bid came in. Anything after pick 40, should we choose to match that bid, we would take him with whatever our next available pick happens to be. I would be very surprised if Dib is called out before pick 40.

There is a deficit buffer where you can go into deficit up to around 300 odd points ( ? ) without it impacting your position in next years draft BUT that amount also depends at what pick the bid was matched. I’m best guessing here but if Daicos was called at #2, we would could potentially go into deficit of couple hundred points and not impose any draft position penalties in 2022.
( Magpie Russ explained it well earlier on here but I’m going from memory )
Yep accounted for discount - pick 20 we need 730 points - pick 40 343pts
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Post by npalm »

inxs88 wrote:
npalm wrote:
E wrote: We wanted to use the points on Reef based on our then current later picks so we could then do a trade to bring in more early picks. the points are assessed based on available picks at the time of the deal. If Reef dropped, the other trades wouldn't have worked the way they did.
I'm impressed by the nous and boldness displayed by the clubs in the way they work their way thru strategies such as the one described above.

People have been quick to praise GW for the actions taken so far during this trade period but clearly we have had very capable people working in this area in previous years. And I wonder if it's actually GW supplying the smarts in the current trade period at the moment, or is it one of long term football ops guys.



I also can't help wondering if some club, hopefully not the pies, is going to outsmart themselves and badly cock-up one of these trades one day and make a laughing stock of themselves. Please let it be Carlton.

Can you please enlighten all of us on Nick's as to who the "stig" or genius footy ops guy we have had in the past and what he or she actually did?
I have no idea who the smart guy(s) in our footy ops department are but I suspect every club has them or wants them for this sort of pick trading. As for an example of their work you only have to look at E's explanation above regarding the machinations involved in Reef's selection.
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Post by Dave The Man »

Lot of Work on the Weekend to try and get this Trade Then
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Post by Presti35 »

I'm really hoping we can get this one sorted out by Monday afternoon.

Maybe we have other ideas for the PSD?
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Post by Magpie Russ »

npalm wrote:
inxs88 wrote:Can you please enlighten all of us on Nick's as to who the "stig" or genius footy ops guy we have had in the past and what he or she actually did?
I have no idea who the smart guy(s) in our footy ops department are but I suspect every club has them or wants them for this sort of pick trading. As for an example of their work you only have to look at E's explanation above regarding the machinations involved in Reef's selection.
I would think it is a data analyst. You would have a dashboard where you would query a database, set up pre-determined queries, reports so that is displayed on the dashboard. You would set up the database, possibly getting feeds from elsewhere - you would hope that you can plug into a feed on draft day so you get the most update information. You would also run 'what-ifs'.

On draft night - you will want all that at your fingertips - and I would think - you would need a response to any query in less that 30 secs (not sure if I am asking for too much). You would be running perhaps two three scenarios...

Your system should have provided you a strategy beforehand that you would be working to - so you aren't left fumbling. Then some BCP - a back-up of the database, hardcopies.

I assume.
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Lipinski deal done

Post by inxs88 »

Looks like Pick 43
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Post by Sore loser »

You bloody beauty!!!! Now for Daicos!!!!
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