Pre-Match: Pies v WCE..all comments in here thanks. Go Pies!

[DaVe86]

Wore my collingwood top all day yesterday. But now its monday, the attention has to move away from the win and onto the Eagles.

Eagles are looking like they'll be without Judd, Couins, Kerr and Hansen, whilst Wirripanda, Jones and Rosa must be in serious serious doubt. Rosa did his AC joint, so if he plays Id be looking towards scott burns for a few nice early hip and shoulders.

Chad Fletcher will most likely return.

This leaves their best midfield looking like: Priddis, Stenglein, Braun, Fletcher, Embley, Hurn, Waters.

We have to fancy ourselves. That list mentioned is still very reputable, but have shown this year that they struggle without their big 3. Dean Cox in finals is obviously the worry and he can bring these guys into it.

In terms of tagging...Embley is the guy who stands out to me. If we decide to make changes, Lonie is the best guy we have in reserve for him. Otherwise Rhyce Shaw would be a show but may be too weak in the air. Of our existing players, Dane Swan seems the go, or we put Pendles head to head with him

Braun is also a worry. He will run very hard. Again Rhyce Shaw is a decent matchup but perhaps will struggle against Braun overhead. Of the existing team from last week, i would again fancy Pendles in a head to head role, or put Obree defensive onto him.

Priddis will be their major ball-winner. He is slow and not overly skilled, but knows how to get it. Im calling for Licuria's inclusion to tight tag the youngstar...but i doubt this will happen. Otherwise Scott Burns would be an interesting matchup or Dane Swan.

Stenglein tags...and will most likely head to Bucks, Pendles or Swan. He got a stack of the ball against the Power so whoever he goes to will have to be very cautious Stenglein doesnt get loose.


Lynch is the other concern. I feel with his size on the big ground, he will kick 4 goals. We wont be able to stop that. He can kick it anywhere within 60 metres. We can however stop the carnage. Presti has a terrible record so should not be considered, and i hope MM is not playing around with the idea of Harry. Wakelin is still the best matchup. Wakelin has a good record against Barry Hall who is a giant...but Lynch is even bigger. Even so, Wakelin is still the number 1 option. The Eagles lack forwards without Hansen, so we should be able to get either Clement, Maxwell, Harry or Goldsack loose to cover and lend a hand.

Staker will be used up forward. He is very dangerous overhead but gets a bit lost. Goldsack would be my first preference...or we use Clement to really shut him out. However, last week, the Eagles most dangerous forward was probably Le Cras. I wouldnt mind Jimmy going onto him and just making sure he is held. Maxwell could be used as a swing man if Hunter moves forward, but Id most like him in the floating role to cover Lynch.


Rocca will struggle against Glass. Hunter will most likely have first dibs at Cloke, but they may elect to use him against the Ruz. They will really struggle to match us down back, especially if Jones does not pull up from the facial fractures he received. I think we can really stretch them. They will really struggle to find a matchup for Medhurst, Didak and Leon. Daniel Chick is a good spoiler but may struggle for pace. I actually think they will use Hunter on Ruzling and Chick on Cloke. If so, Id be instructing Cloke to lead hard up the ground to get rid of Chicks spoiling abilities, and isolate Ruzling on Hunter. I think Hunter is overrated 1 on 1 and much prefers playing loose. Hunter enjoys generating a lot of run out of defence. If we can get him isolated on the goal-line against a dangerous opponent, we are in business.

Id also like to see Rocca take Glass outside forward 50. Glass may find himself out of his comfort zone, and this again give Ruzling more space. It also give small like Medhurst, Didak and Leon plenty of room to have a bit of fun.


Id only consider making 1 change...and that would be Harry out for either Licuria/Shaw/Lonie. I cant see a real matchup for Harry, and I think rely on their midfield to get them across the line. Therefore the speed of Rhyce or the talent of Lonie or the defensive side of Licuria would be better served than a 5th tall defender.


The obvious matchup that will decide the match will be Cox v Fraser. Last time, Fraser decided to play it attacking and do as much damage against Cox. This is risky but probably the way to go. Cox is going to be dominant in the hitouts. However he has a different on-ball division to tap to, so hopefully we can nullify his influence. Guy Richards is going to be vital. He is probably a better technical ruckman than Josh, and there will be times that he will have to go up against Cox. If he can atleast break even in the hitouts and look after Cox around the ground, we will win this game.


We are a great travelling side, and we love finals. We played a gameplan last week similar to that of Sydney. The only team the eagles have really struggled against in modern times has been Sydney. If we bring the same gameplan with the same ferocity and execution, we will win this game comfortably.

however dont rule out the eagles, they still have big names and many premiership players. However you would have to give us a red hot shot.

[uey]

Dave - i think you have officially lost it - Lonie IN Harry OUT - maybe you should rewatch the previous 5 years games?

In terms of tagging - why dont we play on Embley who we played on Goodes?

[DaVe86]

I think Harry has been Ok in the previous 5 games, but i still panick when he gets the ball. Cant find a suitable matchp for him against the Eagles, whereas Lonie atleast has a good record on Embley.

I never said out harry in lonie...i put Lonie in a list of 3 names (Shaw, Licuria, Lonie) who i thought would have a better matchup than Harry. At the moment, Im thinking Rhyce Shaw is the man to bring in as he usually plays well against the eagles.


Whoever played on Goodes on saturday night was pretty loose as i thought Goodes was dominant again. I think we rotated on Goodes. Id like to see someone actually given a job...we really lack a tagger at the moment which is a side effect of Holland and Licuria slowing down

[3rd degree]

Good insights Dave. enjoyable reading.

[jimbeam]

Our key and strength in my opinion is our forward line.

hunter will try and tire our big boys out, he was instrumental last week. We play the big fellas in a tandem role swinging from the square to CHF in rotation providing the leading option up the ground. Hunter walks to cloke, cloke goes back to the square rusling comes up and vice versa. Whoever has glass runs him outside 50. Isolate their weakness and exploit it. Take their marking spoilers away from the ball. We can decoy all day long with the options we have. We can goto the talls or smalls. We get their weak matchups and use it against them.

We goto go long, we control the ball but when we are 1 kick outside 50 we need to drop it in all day, if we are relentless and attacking all day the eagles will crumble.

Lynch is the bloke we need to stop, he can kick a bag, he is very good at ground level. Play infront, he gets most of his ball when it hits the deck, he is one sided too.

Staker has good hands, can turn quick and bag a few so i would be putting goldsack on him, perfect matchup.

As for lecras, he acted like a link man last week and got most if his ball around chf. James Clement step on up, a turn over at their chf will open the guts up for us.

Max can be the swing man again, if hunter is causing damage by pushing up lose just sit maxwell back in the guts all day. We will damage them on the rebound hard if hunter is pushing around loose, they dont have the structure to run hard and get clean inside 50s, maxwell will force a matchup if we can get it to him while on down the middle.
Last weeks pressue is enough to beat anyone, the rotating midfield worked a treat, genius idea by the coaching panel, get them involved early touch and confidence in a final is super important.

Heater started to open the swans up late, might be a good idea to get him lose or on a wing so we can have him involved eary too.

thats all i can think of, just wrapped with last weeks pressure.

[pietillidie]

They will consider themselves the underdog whatever the media says and will see it as a chance to further etch themselves into history against the odds. We should scoff at any suggestion we have anything but a slim chance of pulling off a win. Remember, even the crappiest West Coast sides (which admittedly are never too bad) have been able to beat us over there.

[HAL]

When, specifically, will they?

[Tannin]

double post, sorry

[Tannin]

A good, thoughtful post, Dave. Thankyou.

In terms of tagging...Embley is the guy who stands out to me. If we decide to make changes, Lonie is the best guy we have in reserve for him. Otherwise Rhyce Shaw would be a show but may be too weak in the air. Of our existing players, Dane Swan seems the go, or we put Pendles head to head with him.

I'd play Lockyer on him. On Braun, Rhyce Shaw. In reserve (against either player) we have Thomas and Pendlebury. Both of those last two mentioned are worth thinking about because, although they are not noted for their tagging skills, they can be very damaging in their own right, meaning that the taggee has to spend a lot of time worrying about the tagger.

O'Bree on Priddis?

Wakelin on Lynch. Easy decision. Wakes will struggle to keep up with him when he leads up and starts roaming outside 50, but if Wakes can push Lynch up out of scoring distance, we can afford to see Lynch get a fair bit of it, putting our trust in Jimmy and Goldy and Heater and Nick to chop off most of his passes.

Up forward, the recipe should be much as it was on Saturday: Rocca, Cloke, and Ruz, plus Fraser as often as possible. Fraser will play better this week than last week - he is always quiet after an injury, then builds his form in following weeks - and should be able to snag a couple. We will need him to do that, as it isn't reasonable to expect Rocca to get another 6, nor Cloke to get more than 2 or 3. (Ruz ... well, if he kicks straight, he could do anything.)

One change... Harry out for either Licuria/Shaw/Lonie. I cant see a real matchup for Harry, and I think they rely on their midfield to get them across the line. Therefore the speed of Rhyce or the talent of Lonie or the defensive side of Licuria would be better served than a 5th tall defender.

In broad, I agree with you. In detail, no. Licca is in great form, but is he fast enough to cover the ground at Subiaco? I'm doubtful. If we play Licca, I'd prefer that it be in a side that also includes noted speedsters in Rhyce Shaw and Brad Dick. I can't see us finding room for three inclusions (there are not three players you could sensibly leave out), so (to me) that means Licca doesn't play. (If we were playing at the Dome it would be a different story.)

Lonie just doesn't have the track record this year. Since he first got OP he hasn't been the same player. Lonie needed to step up this year (over and above his previous years' form) just to command a place in a 22 - with the likes of Pendlbury, Clarke, Goldsack and Thomas running around now, and with significant and sustained improvements from players like Lockyer and Davis, the selection bar is higher. Form that would have made you an automatic pick in '05 or '06 leaves you running round at Willy in '07 - just ask Brodie Holland.

Ryan Lonie needed to add some extra desperation and attack on the ball to his existing pace and superb footskills. Because of his OP, he hasn't been able to train properly, nor gain true match hardness. You have to feel a lot of sympathy for him, as I think he's genuinely tried his heart out to make it back into the team, but this is an elimination final and we don't have room for sentiment.

Rhyce Shaw is a different matter. Rhyce was not in his best form, but was nevertheless servicable and unlucky to get dropped this week. If picked, he will add pace and delivery into the forward line. Plus he can take a tagging role if required. Racer has to be on the short list of potential inclusions.

The other one I'd think long and hard about is Brad Dick. After a mid-season slump, he has returned to excellent form at Williamstown. He is fast, skillful, and can kick like a mule. Plus, he's a Western Austraian boy - look at how regularly Leon Davis (also from WA) puts in big games in Perth. Playing Dick would be a risk, that's clear, but you have to take some risks in life, and this just might be worth a shot. And you cannot argue that playing the out-of-form O'Brien or the lion-hearted plodder Licuria isn't equally a risk.

The obvious matchup that will decide the match will be Cox v Fraser.

Nope. Cox v Richards. Guy is our best ruckman. Not "possibly", not "probably", not "might be if he continues to improve" - is. I'm not saying he is a better player than Fraser, indeed, as a complete footballer, Richards rates as our 22nd best out of 22, but he is a ruckman, and he can take on big challenges. Guy Richards beat Sandilands earlier this year, and that's just as big an ask, bigger maybe. Guy is a more mature, more complete footballer at this end of the season than he was earlier this year too. Little by little, Richards is cementing his place in our side as our #1 ruckman.

Richards gets the job on Cox, and Josh spells him, also spending time up forward to spell Rocca, Cloke, and Rusling. My prediction: Richards will emerge as the best ruckman on the ground on Friday night. He is going to be fired right up for a huge job, and with a little help from Josh, I think he can do it, and will do it.

OUT: Harrry.
IN: Racer.
EMERG: Dick, Licuria, Reid.

[melliot]

Besides Lynch, WCE have a lot of those tallish mid-sized forwards. Staker, Embley, LeCra, Hunter, etc. So Harry O is good as an optional defender. Could also tag the Big Cox too.

But Racer would be a good inclusion for an additional midfield rotation and pace in the subi expances. Can also go back on a crumbing type, if required. This would really put the pressure on their now skinny and slower midfield.

WCE will have their "backs to the wall" for this one. Everyone thinks we're a big chance. WCE not being the favourites will have the right attitude and defend their home dung heap. To beat them there will be a mamoth task.

BTW we have a 6 day break and travel. WCE have 7 Day break and less travel and it was early in the week.

We've won one final so the pressure is off us a bit now IMO. We should go in with a nothing to lose attitude. Expectations have been met IMO. Take risks and play with freedom. Only one team in history has won 4 finals in a row. We can't expect it to happen but play the best we can and let the rest just happen.

GO PIES! I'm nervous and excited at the same time. Just can't wait till Friday and soaking up last Saturdays win.

[loki04]

I just hope we attack the ball like we did against sydney the rest will take care of itself.

biggest concern for me is cox v richards imo this is where we may lose the game.

[panga]

Was just watching eagles training, hansen should be a definite starter.

Don't think I saw cox actually

Kerr was running laps with Wirrpanda, but kerr's hand was in some brace.

[David]

Great posts guys.

I agree, Rhyce Shaw is the only player I can really see breaking into the team at the moment, and O'Brien is the only one you could really leave out (although, his game on Saturday night was his best for a while).

Out of the young players, I've thought for a few weeks that Dick was one of the few who you could play in a final at the moment (along with Goldsack, Clarke and Cox), but I'm not sure if we can afford to take the risk this week. I'd be tempted to take him over as an emergency, though.

[1eyedpie]

[quote="melliot"] Only one team in history has won 4 finals in a row. We can't expect it to happen but play the best we can and let the rest just happen.







Just wondering which team has one four finals in a row??

[Tannin]

Would have to be Adelaide, wouldn't it? Weren't they the only team to win it from outside the top 4 under the current system? (Adelaide of Port - I get them mixed up.)

David, I agree about Dick. It would be good experience for him to take the trip as an emergency, even if he doesn't play, and he'd be a very useful kid to have on hand if, for example, a Didak or a Thomas had to pull out injured at the last moment.