Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign

[Jezza]

It's actually very similar to the final result last time around – in 2020 Trump won Iowa with 53.09% vs Biden on 44.89%.

Correct, David.

In 2016, Trump won Iowa 51.15% vs Clinton 41.74%.

The latest Emerson poll is almost a replica of the two last election cycles.

[Skids]

Quite a shift in the market.
Trump now $1.72 - $1.80 on most markets. Harris $2.10

[stui magpie]

The polls basically have it too close to call, any lead is well within the margin for error so literally anything could happen.

[think positive]

C’mon blue! Seriously, are they that stupid? He’s a criminal!

[Pies4shaw]

^ Yes, they are that stupid.

[think positive]

^ Yes, they are that stupid.

Sheesh. God help us!

[Jezza]

The current state of play in my opinion:

SAFE (D )

• District of Columbia (3)

• Vermont (3)

• Massachusetts (11)

• Maryland (10)

• Hawaii (4)

• California (54)

• New York (28)

• Maine CD-1 (1)

• Rhode Island (4)

• Connecticut (7)

• Washington (12)

• Delaware (3)

• Illinois (19)

• Oregon (8)

• New Jersey (14)

• Colorado (10)

• New Mexico (5)

LIKELY/LEAN (D )

• Virginia (13)

• Maine (2)

• New Hampshire (4)

• Minnesota (10)

• Nebraska CD-2 (1)

TOSSUP

• Michigan (15)

• Nevada (6)

• Pennsylvania (19)

• Wisconsin (10)

• Arizona (11)

• Georgia (16)

• North Carolina (16)

LIKELY/LEAN (R )

• Iowa (6)

• Ohio (17)

• Maine CD-2 (1)

• Texas (40)

• Florida (30)

SAFE (R )

• Nebraska CD-3 (1)

• Wyoming (3)

• West Virginia (4)

• North Dakota (3)

• Oklahoma (7)

• Idaho (4)

• Arkansas (6)

• South Dakota (3)

• Kentucky (8)

• Alabama (9)

• Tennessee (11)

• Utah (6)

• Nebraska (2)

• Louisiana (8)

• Mississippi (6)

• Montana (4)

• Indiana (11)

• Missouri (10)

• Nebraska CD-1 (1)

• Kansas (6)

• South Carolina (9)

• Alaska (3)

So the split is 226 D - 93 ? - 219 R. Need 270 to win.

[Jezza]

Poll closures (Australian EST)

Wednesday

10:00am = Indiana (E) and Kentucky (E)

11:00am = Florida (E), Georgia, Indiana (C), Kentucky (C), New Hampshire (some polling places) South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont

11:30am = North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia

12:00pm = Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida (C), Illinois, Kansas (C), Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan (E), Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire (all), New Jersey, North Dakota (C), Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota (C), Tennessee, Texas (C) and District of Columbia

12:30pm = Arkansas

1:00pm = Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas (M), Louisiana, Michigan (C), Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota (M), South Dakota (M), Texas (M), Wisconsin and Wyoming

2:00pm = Idaho (M), Montana, Nevada, Oregon (M) and Utah

3:00pm = California, Idaho (P), Oregon (P) and Washington

4:00pm = Alaska (A), Hawaii

5:00pm = Alaska (H)

E = Eastern Time Zone
C = Central Time Zone
M = Mountain Time Zone
P = Pacific Time Zone
A = Alaska Time Zone
H = Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zone

https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times

[stui magpie]

Interesting bit of analysis here from the largest betting market, the stock market.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/mark ... 5knx0.html

For much of this year, investors have been betting heavily on Donald Trump winning back the presidency. Over the past few days, they’ve gotten cold feet.

When Joe Biden was still running, a win for Trump appeared a lay-down misere, so investors piled into securities that would benefit from a Trump victory. Even when Kamala Harris entered the race, displacing Biden, the Trump trade still flourished.

Investors pushed up the value of the US dollar and bond yields rose because of the effects that Trump’s tax, trade and immigration policies were expected to have.

Lots of other examples in the article about stocks that would have benefited from a Trump win. In the past week though, things have been a bit different. Seems the investors aren't so sure anymore and have been selling off.

One glaring example.

Trump Media shares bounced on Monday to close at $US34.34, a 12.4 per cent gain. A week ago, however, they were trading above $US51 a share. The company has lost $US3.4 billion ($5.2 billion) in market value in the week, with Trump shedding almost $US2 billion in paper wealth.

So it doesn't necessarily mean a Kamala Win, but it does mean that lots of investors who were betting on a Trump victory are getting cold feet and, at worst, taking their profit now.

[swoop42]

Trump should be sitting in a prison cell already and not running for President.

He clearly tried to overthrow a democratically elected Biden in 2020 and we have both taped recordings plus witness statements from government officials and former Trump insiders to show it.

In some countries (that he would describe as shit holes) that would be considered an attempted coup and his fate would have been far worse than any prison term.

American democracy and it's legal system has failed.

[Jezza]

First results are in from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire and how it compares to 2016 and 2020.

2016 = Clinton 4-2 Trump (2 voted other)
2020 = Biden 5-0 Trump
2024 = Harris 3-3 Trump

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityar ... ellwether/

[Skids]

Quite a shift in the market.
Trump now $1.72 - $1.80 on most markets. Harris $2.10

Moving for Trump now... he's $1.53-$1.60, Harris $2.35-$2.50

[David]

I just realised that I placed a $20 bet on Harris winning the election back in January when she was 51-1

We even had a conversation about it in this thread at the time:

One thing I don’t get about this is that Kamala Harris is $51 while a range of novelty or long-shot candidates have shorter odds (e.g. Michelle Obama at $18, Robert F Kennedy Jr at $21). Yet if Biden dies or is forced to step down due to health issues, particularly in the second half of the year, Harris will be the Democratic candidate and surely be at least a half-decent chance to win, even if she’d be seen as the underdog against Trump. That to me is a far more plausible outcome than $51 suggests.

Harris is no chance. $51 is generous.

[Jezza]

I won't be able to do rolling updates like I did in 2020 because I'm at work.

Major poll closures are coming soon with Florida, Georgia, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and New Hampshire.

[Jezza]

Harris wins Vermont (3)

Trump wins Kentucky (8)

Harris 3-8 Trump