Trade Winds: Dan Houston

[Geek]

Noble and a future first rounder for GCS's first rounder is a horrible idea. Injuries cost us a shot at the finals this year and our veterans will be a year older next year.

Noble and a 2nd rounder though.... Feels a bit better. If we crash again and finish bottom 6, then its something like Noble and 24 for pick 12.

[stui magpie]

^
Thanks @Pies2016 , we need to keep a close eye on our 2025 draft hand if we're hoping to get SOMM (Son of Mighty Mick) so I hope there's someone close to Leper who can make sure he understands how it all works, in different coloured crayon pictures if necessary.

And yes, Houston is a very good HBF. He would make our team better, but is the level of improvement worth a first round pick and a player?

I'm conflicted on Fly's strategy (supported by the Pres) of ignoring the draft and going for ready made players.

History tends to support it but IMHO there's a balance to be achieved between brining in young talent for the future and bringing in ready made options for the now. I hope we get it right but I'm scared we wont.

[shawthing]

We're dreaming to think we'll get pick 13 from the Suns for Noble.
We need forwards now since we have Perryman.

Fly's strategy reeks of Moneyball. Let's not kid ourselves that whole concept is a scam. The Oakland A's are now the worst team in baseball.

[Culprit]

^^Picking up Dan would be a huge win when you look at our current draft hand and list age-wise. If we replace Noble with Houston I would be stoked but I feel the "Collingwood" name is being used to increase his value. Happy to be wrong but I have seen this occur over numerous years.

[stui magpie]

^^

How many teams have won the premiership by building from the draft?

I'm thinking none, whereas clubs like Geelong stay in perpetual contention with a balance between draft and trade

[SLORT]

The Oakland A's are now the worst team in baseball.

So bad they're no longer Oakland...the franchise has been sold and they're (eventually) moving to Las Vegas.

[Presti35]

Trade week starts on Monday and runs until the 16th. I really cant wait and I hope we can land Houston without losing too much.

[Big T]

Re winning flags from the draft. Of course every team has trades and drafts. What is uncommon is teams winning with no high end draft talent. We need to keep occasional high end picks and not give them all away. I mean combined Grundy Treloar and Beams returning cost us 6 first rounders for basically no advantage whereas getting rid of beams netted De Goey at pick 6 and Crisp. Ffs we cannot moneyball another flag, it worked once but like our defence in the last quarter strategy, it won’t work twice.

And hello, we won the flag because of Daicos, De Goey, Pendles and Sidney. Picks 4, 6, 5 and 11 if I am not mistaken.

It’s all about high end picks.

[Presti35]

^ I guess being in the win now mode has given the coaches the view of wanting players that are ready now. We've already lost pick 10 for Schultz. I think adding Houston for a pick that belongs to Gold Coast isn't a bad thing. I've picked the three players I want this draft. All projected to go around 20-25, so we'll see if we end up with a pick around this point.

[swoop42]

The media are spinning the line that pick 13 might open up the deal for Houston but since when have Port dropped their demand for two 1st round selections for a dual and reigning AA? It's like this is being forgotten.

If it was North and their future selection then sure one would probably suffice as that's likely to be a top 4 selection.

As for us, Richards at the very best equates to a late 2nd round selection. That's even assuming he departs.

Our pick 36 at a minimum will need to be added IMO.

I actually think we could possibly put ourselves in a stronger bargaining position for Houston with a little something left over by hoping GC accepts.....

Future 1st, Noble, 36, 51, 54

for

13, 23, 29

13, 23 + Richards for Houston vs Carlton 12, future 1st?

Take 29 to the draft and fill the remaining 2 minimum selections required with end of draft best of the rest. Every year their are players tipped to be drafted but have to wait until rookie etc. Hopefully this season given the supposed depth on offer a few more diamonds in the rough will be possible.

The way I see it our future 1st and Noble is overs for pick 13 but this is evened out by receiving 23 and 29 for 36, 51 and 54. Those points collectively are worth 981 and equate to around pick 18 (985) for GC. After the 20% discount they would cover a bid at pick 13 for their academy player.

Like every other scenario God knows what's actually achievable and what remains pure fantasy.

[swoop42]

Out of interest, Dan Houston finished fifth in Ports B and F last night. He was only one vote behind Rozee who finished fourth. Houston also missed the last couple games due to suspension.
Not sure what that means in the scheme of things but I don’t see how Port could ask for any more than #13 in a great draft and Joe Richards.

Would you accept 12 and Owies for Maynard?

I wouldn't but that's about the equivalent.

Houston is a dual and reigning AA. He was the only back to back AA defender this year. He's one of the best kicks in the game and God knows we could use that.

I'd be staggered if 13 and Richards is enough for him.

[Pies2016]

^^^
I should rephrase the above.
Port can ask for whatever they want but I’m not sure Collingwood should or need to be giving up any more than #13 and Richards.
Part of that equation is also based on what we would have already given up to get # 13 ( would surely include our F1, albeit something extra would come back )
Houston is a fine player but all we have is two ageing and injury prone key forwards and only one decent key defender on our entire list and yet we’re selling the farm for a gun HBF.

Personally, I would rather just trade Noble for a pick in the twenties, offer that pick around for any best 23 KPP available and keep our F1 for another 12 months. In 12 months time there will be a heap more talent available and then at least you would still have your first rounder to start negotiations with.

I just get this feeling we’re being active for the sake of it, rather than strategic with the future in mind.

[Presti35]

^Theres the possibility that Houston isn't our only target though. He may not even end up here.

Lots to play out

[Culprit]

^^

How many teams have won the premiership by building from the draft?

I'm thinking none, whereas clubs like Geelong stay in perpetual contention with a balance between draft and trade

The Hawks under Clarkson, used it perfectly and it was more than one Premiership. The Cats appear to have a bigger salary cap than anyone else. They just seem to be able to recruit anyone despite the $$.

[stui magpie]

^
Yeah, but they also traded. They built a stock of kids via the draft then bought in the missing pieces like Brian Lake and Gibson.

What I meant to say was "purely" through the draft? How many of our 2023 premierships came in via trades?

You get quality draft picks by bottoming out for a year or 2, which we don't want to do, so it seems we're going to try to defy gravity like Geelong.