Israeli–Palestinian conflict

[Magpietothemax]

^Agree with what David explains in terms of the regional interests within the Middle East.
But it is also part of an incipient world war.
The aim for regime change in Iran and the installation of a US puppet (like the Shah) goes hand in hand with the overarching strategy of encircling Russia. The NATO war against Russia, currently being carried out by the Zelensky regime, is part of the drive to encircle and dismember the Russian Federation in order to loot its mineral wealth and other natural resources for US/NATO corporations.
And ultimately, the subjugation of Russia is part of the strategy to encircle China, whom Washington views as the main threat to its continued economic survival.
US capitalism is mired in a financial crisis.
The price of gold keeps rising relentlessly. This is a measure of erosion in trust of the US dollar.
Investors are leaving the dollar and increasingly placing their wealth in the safe haven of gold.
The US national debt keeps rising exponentially. The US has no way of paying this off, while so many resources are being assigned to the military.
Vast speculation has created an inverted pyramid of finance capital claiming its realisation from an industrial capacity which is expandng far less quickly.
BRICS is openly moving to create an environment independent of the US dollar.
The US capitalist class is in an existential crisis, and sees no way out other than to take control of strategic natural resources and ultimately destroy its main competitor, China.
So the reorganisation of the Middle east is in fact one aspect of the drive of US imperialism to redivide the globe, in its own interests
It is important to note that all the other imperialist powers (UK, France, Germany, Japan) are likewise taking part in this mission to redivide the globe, and hence, - for the moment - are allied to US imperialism, although their unity is undermined constantly by conflicting interests.

The trajectory of world capitalism is towards world war, which will be fought with nuclear weapons. There is only one way of stopping this, and this is through world socialist revolution by the international working class.

[Durka]

So, in answer to the 4 questions that I asked, you wrote a few paragraphs in response and didn't answer any of them!

Apparently there is a master plan to take over the Middle East (don't worry about how etc, that's a mere detail), then take over Russia (don't worry about how etc, that's a mere detail), steal its natural resources, then do the same with China (don't worry about how etc, that's a mere detail), then have a nuclear war. Great, now that I know, I can plan accordingly.

As I understand it then, the people united can never be defeated, and our brothers, sisters (is it even legal to call people that now or is it offensive?) and comrades in the international socialist revolutionary cause are here to save us. Just to make sure that I don't join the wrong faction, are you part of the Popular People's World Socialist Revolution or the People's Popular World Socialist Revolution? If I join, do we meet on Zoom? Teams? Are the meetings on Wednesday nights? If so, we may have to change the meeting times, as I play pool with a few mates then.

[Durka]

The strategic ambition is regional hegemony, i.e. having a Middle East full of allies and client states. Regime change in Iran is an important goal within that because Iran is the leader of the oppositional, Russia-aligned power bloc – that is, oppositional to the interests of the US and its key allies in Israel and Saudi Arabia – that takes in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen. Ideally, for the US, they and every other Middle Eastern country would eventually be part of a homogeneous region under America's thumb.

This goal also guarantees control of oil supplies, shipping routes and so on, which of course is heavily in America's financial interests given how resource-rich this part of the world is. So it's part economic, part territorial and part ideological (given the commitment of many in the US government to the concept of Zionism, neoliberalism, etc.) That's a simplified answer, but I think it covers most of it.

That's the argument that is always made but I don't accept it. It is illogical. It's also just a little bit Team America corporationy speak, but just substitute USA.

Times have changed. The USA already has control of both oil and gas supplies, regardless of the Middle East. The USA is the world's largest producer, generating about double what no.2, Saudi Arabia produces.There's a big difference after that between Saudi Arabia and the rest. The others in the Middle East are minnows compared to the USA's production. The USA does not need the Middle East.

As for shipping lanes, have they been blocked by Hezbollah or Hamas? No, because they don't want other nations apart from Israel teeing off at them, so they're irrelevant to the shipping lane argument.The Houthis have attacked shipping, but that's more the result of a battle of the religious sects, or a defacto war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. As far as I am aware, the USA have not invaded Yemen.(As a side note, it's seldomly reported what is occurring in Yemen, and there's no rage about the estimates of hundreds of thousands of deaths in a Muslim v Muslim scenario. Compare that to the outrage over what's now occurring in Ghaza & Lebanon. Being anti-semitic seems to make people very loud, just like in 1930's Germany).

The USA can't even control itself properly so I don't know how you think that it has the capacity to have the Middle East under its thumb. Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan couldn't be controlled and they were on a one at a time basis.

[Magpietothemax]

So, in answer to the 4 questions that I asked, you wrote a few paragraphs in response and didn't answer any of them!

Apparently there is a master plan to take over the Middle East (don't worry about how etc, that's a mere detail), then take over Russia (don't worry about how etc, that's a mere detail), steal its natural resources, then do the same with China (don't worry about how etc, that's a mere detail), then have a nuclear war. Great, now that I know, I can plan accordingly.

As I understand it then, the people united can never be defeated, and our brothers, sisters (is it even legal to call people that now or is it offensive?) and comrades in the international socialist revolutionary cause are here to save us. Just to make sure that I don't join the wrong faction, are you part of the Popular People's World Socialist Revolution or the People's Popular World Socialist Revolution? If I join, do we meet on Zoom? Teams? Are the meetings on Wednesday nights? If so, we may have to change the meeting times, as I play pool with a few mates then.

In WW1, Germany had a plan to conquer territory in the east, Britain had a plan to stop Germany from doing so, US had a plan to wait it out for a while until its rivals destroyed each other enough so it could become the dominant hegemon...

Likewise in WW2 GErmany had a plan to conquer every eastern territory up to the Urals, Japan has a plan to create the "South East Asia Prosperity Sphere"" , America had a plan to destroy Japan and Germany in establish its dominance because British imperialism by then was senile...

Did all these governments have blue prints about how they would achieve these aims?

Their blue print was war, as it is today. IN the case of the US, that plan ultimately included nuclear weapons.
And today, no different from the past, the US again proposes to achieve its aims, through war.

You also totally underestimate (or more likely, are just not aware of ) the existential economic crisis that US capitalism finds itself in today. Gold continues its neverending rise to historic levels. The price of gold is a measure of confidence in the US dollar. Its continued rise represents the continued loss of confidence by investors in the strengh of the US dollar.

The US national debt is rising exponentially. With US military spending now exploding, there is no way that the US can repay this debt. The US government just has to keep hoping that everyone keeps trusting the dollar so that it can keep using its privileges as the holder of the global currency to keep bailing itself out.

But time is running out. This cannot keep going forever. China and Russia, along with the BRICS nations, are setting up an environment independent of the US dollar. Developments such as these pose a mortal threat to US imperialism. If investors draw the conclusion that the US is not good for its word, that the debt is unserviceable, that US industrial production is not capable of buoying up the huge load of speculative capital in Wall St, the US will be openly seen for what it is: bankrupt.

No former economic hegemon relinques its hegemony in peace. Hence, its plan is war...take over markets, take over raw materials, destroy the productive forces of rival powers (especially China)

The fact that the US has its own oil supplies is irrelevant. The US is not reorganising the MIddle East for oil primarily. It is aimed at choking off the supply of oil to its rivals, and establishing strategic bases for further action against Russia.

You should definitely keep up your snooker though - sorry, mybad, pool.

[Magpietothemax]

(As a side note, it's seldomly reported what is occurring in Yemen, and there's no rage about the estimates of hundreds of thousands of deaths in a Muslim v Muslim scenario. Compare that to the outrage over what's now occurring in Ghaza & Lebanon. Being anti-semitic seems to make people very loud, just like in 1930's Germany).

So what''s your point, we shouldn't be outraged about genocide in Gaza because in Yemen there is another military/social catastrophe?

And to claim that those who are outraged by Israel's genocidal actions in Gaza are anti-Semites "just like in the 1930''s in Germany" is just regurgitating the reprehensible lies that all governments, including both Albanese and Dutton here, are spewing out to try to criminalise and intimidate all opposition to the current imperialist policy of reorganising the Middle East via its proxy, the Netanyahu government.

[David]

That's the argument that is always made but I don't accept it. It is illogical. It's also just a little bit Team America corporationy speak, but just substitute USA.

Times have changed. The USA already has control of both oil and gas supplies, regardless of the Middle East. The USA is the world's largest producer, generating about double what no.2, Saudi Arabia produces.There's a big difference after that between Saudi Arabia and the rest. The others in the Middle East are minnows compared to the USA's production. The USA does not need the Middle East.

You say the US "does not need the Middle East", yet it's always present there. They helped fund and arm the Saudis' genocidal war in Yemen, bombed Libya, aided anti-government and Kurdish forces in Syria during the civil war, and of course provide ongoing unconditional support for Israel. They spent most of the past two decades in Iraq on a war that pretty much everyone now agrees was conducted for bogus reasons. What could the point of all of this have been if they had no economic interests in the region? Why do it otherwise? If you disagree with my explanation, you should provide your own.

What could be true is that this is more about factions within the US political establishment than some kind of overarching agreed-upon goal. The aggressive interventionists who held sway in the Reagan, Clinton and Bush administrations may be losing their grip. But what's also clear is that US foreign policy has not substantially or observably shifted since then – not under Obama, not under Trump, and not under Biden/Harris. US policy towards Israel is unchanged, Saudi Arabia remains the regional ally, Iran remains the enemy (despite overtures towards reconciliation under Obama). Perhaps that consensus will break down and America will soon pursue a more isolationist or pluralist agenda; but that's a question for the future, not a description of what's happening now.

As a side note, it's seldomly reported what is occurring in Yemen, and there's no rage about the estimates of hundreds of thousands of deaths in a Muslim v Muslim scenario. Compare that to the outrage over what's now occurring in Ghaza & Lebanon. Being anti-semitic seems to make people very loud, just like in 1930's Germany

Many of us regularly expressed outrage over the war in Yemen, as a cursory search of this very forum will demonstrate. But if that was more of a niche issue in the popular consciousness than Israel/Palestine, then that's an indictment on Western apathy, not on the people who are rightly standing up against mass murder and ethnic cleansing now.

[Magpietothemax]

Since its recent act of state terrorism (exploding mobile phones and pagers), the fascist Netanyahu government has launched a full scale bombardment of southern and eastern Lebanon, with 560 Lebanese people dead, many children and women.

In the UN General Assembly, Biden has predictably endorsed this latest act of criminality by the Zionist regime:
He said:
“Hezbollah, unprovoked, joined the October 7 attack, launching rockets into Israel. Any country would have the right and responsibility to ensure that such an attack could never happen again.” He also declared that what is necessary is a “stronger position to deal with the ongoing threat posed by Iran. We must deny oxygen to its terrorist proxies.”

In the meantime, the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is steaming towards the Middle East, along with a further deployment of US troops.

Two things are clear: a) Israel is now in the process of provoking an open war with Hezbollah, b) the US will fully back Israel, and intervene on its behalf in a potential war with Iran

A war against Hezbollah will necessarily provoke some kind of response from Iran. And sooner or later, this will become the trigger for war with Iran.

The Iranian regime is fully aware of the plans of the Zionists and their US backers, and is desperately trying to avoid escalation. In words of desperation, the President of Iran appealed for a "new era of co-operation with the West", in his speech at the UN General Assembly.

But Israel and the US have now deliberately instigated a chain of events which will lead in only one direction, the one that they desire: all out war in the Middle East and regime change in Iran. With a US puppet in Iran, and Hezbollah obliterated, the US will exercise control of the Middle East and the ability to choke off oil supplies and sea routes to its rivals.

If one looks at a map, it is clear to see how domination of Iran would give Washington huge opportunities to build miitary bases encircling southern russia, and become a platform for organising proimperialist ethnic and nationalist political forces throughout southern Russia and the surrounding ex Soviet republics nearby, as part of the ongoing plan to dismember Russia.

[David]

Where we part ways is I think Iran is a substantial goal unto itself rather than some kind of stepping stone. The idea that the ultimate strategic ambition is to break up Russia seems more of a lurid Putinist, Russo-centric fantasy than anything seriously on the US agenda.

I really can't see an independent Chechnya, Dagestan and Tatarstan being high up on the US shopping list – otherwise we'd be able to see, for instance, more activity of the sort you're describing in the Central Asian republics, which for all the dodgy dealings with Tony Blair and his ilk are still pretty firmly within Putin's sphere of influence (and would surely be low-hanging fruit if the US did want to encircle Russia in the south and east). Even Armenia and Azerbaijan are mostly left to their own devices despite Russia's staunch alliance with the former.

And of course this is complicated because, ultimately, I do want regime change in Iran – not yet another coup to turn it into another US client state, but one that overthrows the religious authorities and gives the country's people the opportunity to live freely. For what it's worth, it would also be nice to see normalised ties with an Israel that has also shed its apartheid rule and ceased its oppression of Palestinians. We shouldn't conflate opposition to imperialism with support for one of two competing blocs – ultimately, the goal should be peace and liberty, and that will likely remain a pipe dream while fascists like Netanyahu and Khamenei continue to rule and foster hatred of each other's country to bolster their own positions, or while America continues to attempt to mould the Middle East into its own likeness.

[stui magpie]

^

The thing with Iran though, if you could overthrow the religious leadership, install a temporary government to start fixing things, then have free and legitimate open elections, would the people buy into it?

There has to be a large chunk of population that is used to living in an authoritarian regime and also a fair % of the male population who secretly like having women subjugated and think it is the natural order.

In my view, Iran would be the key. Clean that up, Hamas and Hezbollah have no patron or cash and become
zero threat which reduces tension in Israel. No more rockets and attacks. Remove the threat from Iran and it's actors, then you put Israel on notice that there's going to be a legitimate Palestinian state(s), with fixed borders, it will be administered by itself so you will butt the fvck out and stop messing with the borders, and you (Israel) will be contributing a lot of $$ toward the rebuild of Gaza and getting the Palestinians their own self managed infrastructure.

We end up with a democratic Iran where the people are free from religious zealots trying to keep them in the 16th century, a free and recognised self administered Palestine, and an Israel free from threat able to take it's place as a good neighbour.

[stui magpie]

^
Further to above, I'd like to see all member nations of the UN pay an annual levee of 0.01% of GDP to be used to rebuild nations buggered by war, provided the regime in charge remains democratic.

Iraq badly needs a cash injection to hasten the rebuild, as do multiple other countries. Start with the basics and infrastructure and work up from there. Iraq was apparently a European holiday destination before the fundamentalist Fwits took over and turned the clock back several centuries.

[Magpietothemax]

This is what Netanyahu said today in his address to the UN General Assembly:
Israel is fighting an existential “seven-front war” against Iran and its proxies and would fight until “total victory” in Gaza and Lebanon.

(Making a further mockery of supposed ceasefire proposals by the Biden-Harris administration and its allies)

“There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach. And that is true for the entire Middle East,” he threatened.

Barely an hour after Netanyahu finished speaking, his regime demonstrated the genocidal content of that vow.

Huge explosions ripped through heavily-populated southern Beirut, reducing at least six residential apartment buildings to rubble, and killing hundreds of civilians.

The UN is a pathetic band of hypocrites and liars who at times pretend to be concerned about Israel's genocide in gaza and now Lebanon, but will continue as it always does, to do SFA.



^David, yes, you and I part company on the estimation of the question of Iran. This is because you have not yet fully grasped what imperialism is. Imperialism is not content with anything but world domination (it is "reaction down the line" - Lenin, "Imperialism, the highest form of capitalism". )

If imperialism intervenes in Iran to effect "regime change", it will have nothing to do with "democracy and womens" rights"") , it will only be about creating a puppet regime ready to assist US Imperialism in its encirclement of Russia.

Israel is about to obliterate Hezbollah, and unless you are closing your eyes right now, you would acknowledge that Iran is their next target, and it will not be in order to "defend womens' rights'

[stui magpie]

Iran, or at least their Islamic rulers, need to be taken down as a pre requisite to a Palestinian state.

They have been funding Terrorists with the aim of destroying Israel for decades. Without them, and the Terrorist groups, If Israel can finally have a sense of security, they have no argument about ceding control of the Palestinian territories to create an actual Palestinian country.

Israel was formed from persecuted people and it has been under attack since day 1. That tends to impact somewhat on how their government thinks and behaves. That tension needs to be removed to get peace in that area of the world.

[Magpietothemax]

Iran, or at least their Islamic rulers, need to be taken down as a pre requisite to a Palestinian state.

They have been funding Terrorists with the aim of destroying Israel for decades. Without them, and the Terrorist groups, If Israel can finally have a sense of security, they have no argument about ceding control of the Palestinian territories to create an actual Palestinian country.

Israel was formed from persecuted people and it has been under attack since day 1. That tends to impact somewhat on how their government thinks and behaves. That tension needs to be removed to get peace in that area of the world.

This is just an absurd take on reality
To claim that Israel has been under attack from day 1 is just a total denial of history.

Will say no more, because you have already shown in this thread that you are hopelessly biased in any kind of assessment you mght make of what is happening in the Middle East.

[stui magpie]

^

If you claim that israel hasn't been under attack since day 1, you're clearly suffering from a mental condition known as ID ten T.

[David]

^David, yes, you and I part company on the estimation of the question of Iran. This is because you have not yet fully grasped what imperialism is. Imperialism is not content with anything but world domination (it is "reaction down the line" - Lenin, "Imperialism, the highest form of capitalism". )

If imperialism intervenes in Iran to effect "regime change", it will have nothing to do with "democracy and womens" rights"") , it will only be about creating a puppet regime ready to assist US Imperialism in its encirclement of Russia.

Israel is about to obliterate Hezbollah, and unless you are closing your eyes right now, you would acknowledge that Iran is their next target, and it will not be in order to "defend womens' rights'

Wait, do you really believe that Israel will or can "obliterate" Hezbollah? I would say that's as fanciful a goal as them taking out Hamas, which pretty much everyone agrees at this point they've failed to do and have no realistic prospect of achieving.

What Israel's government would undoubtedly like to do, and might yet succeed in, is expand the war to Iran and draw the US and other countries into a violent and destructive regional conflict. But I don't see that as being a walk in the park for them, and, whoever emerges victorious (if anyone), no doubt there'll be a lot of carnage visited upon ordinary people in Israel and Iran along the way, as well as other countries caught in the middle.

Nobody should want that – and much as I'd in theory like Iranian theocracy as well as the Israeli apartheid state to fall, it's not a trade-off any sane person should accept.