Trade Targets ~ Free Agency & MSD player discussion

[Presti35]

After watching Dom Brew for Werribee today, I got to wondering if he was any chance as a mature aged recruit?

An article regarding Brew today;

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/09/19/ ... -top-level

Is he too slow and does he hit the scoreboard enough? He has had 2 really good seasons for Werribee.

[LaurieHolden]

For Collingwood to find themselves in a position where both list management directions could be easily justified, is a bit unique in itself.

@Pies2016 It appears the outcome to the Draft & Trade period will be as divided as the Stringer vote, straight down the middle.
As @piffdog and you point out, it's the revisionist stuff that irks me, as much as the rehash of mainstream and social media reports into "I heard it from someone close to the Club source" is as reliable as Pub source.

Unless we get another request for a listed player, the Suns / Noble outcome remains our single biggest sliding doors moment of this trade / draft period.
Similarly, if Richards does indeed become part of the equation if either Port or GCS require additional sweetener, then we might just leave our F1 intact.

I do wonder if Noble didn't put up his hand to transfer to GCS, what our initial strategy going into the trade / draft period would have been. I for one, on all of my trade / draft period speculations, gets flipped.
Prior to that we had SFA to table. Magic beans?

[Pies2016]

^^^
There’s no doubt the pending Noble trade has improved our trade and draft flexibility dramatically. Soon as I heard he had requested a trade to the Suns, I couldn’t believe our luck. Not because I don’t rate him but because the Suns have so much draft capital ( plus the Lukosuis trade to SA ) this deal will be done on our terms. Just get the Noble deal done quick and then attack any potential player trades with our revised draft hand during the second half of the trade period.
As an aside, McInnes still appears to be without a contract for 2025. You would think as every week rolls on, he becomes much more likely to be playing elsewhere next year. .

[Mr Miyagi]

After the club wanting him for years, any chance we can get Max Holmes now?

And Rayner looked good, stood up in a cutthroat final.

[Pies4shaw]

It’s an interesting conversation. The proven quality for the now vs the punt on the draft for a 10 year, 200+ game talent.
I’ve seen multiple lists and analysis showing how early picks don’t guarantee you any sort of security but i haven’t seen any lists evaluating the success or not of those big names who change clubs. For every big name who changes a club and plays in a flag, there’s possibly two who doesn’t.
I’d suggest the hit rate of the top ten in a draft probably isn’t that different to an A GRADER swapping clubs and playing in a flag.
So let’s not forget, while a mature age player may stroll into your best 23, there is also nothing tangible that suggests one player makes a significant difference between a flag or not.
Footy is the ultimate team game, so it’s also not a game that lends itself to one individual making a significant difference to a clubs fortunes.
I’m not knocking any trade for a quality player but I’d suggest history shows, that route doesn’t guarantee an improved ladder position either.

I generally agree with that. However, we traded well to round out the teams needed for our last two flags. I don't think we could have won 2010 without Jolly and the Demented Panther in the midfield as well as Leigh Brown playing the "Leigh Brown role" and it's clear that bringing in the 2023 Norm Smith Medallist, Mitchell as an upgrade on Adams and Frampton to close down and frustrate Andrews were all decisive introductions for last year (and McStay might have been, if he hadn't have been injured in the middle of a good showing in the prelim). By way of example, 9 of our last premiership team were trades or mature-age pickups from other teams (the aforementioned 3 plus WHE, Crisp, Howe, Cameron, Lipinski, Markov and Mitchell), 8 of Geelong's 2022 team were trades and Hawthorn, of course, drafted an entire championship backline for their 3-peat at a time when I had written them off because they could not defend. As we know, Melbourne bought a backline, too, when May and Lever were available.

I think trading (and free agency pick-ups) for immediate need can be a real weapon if the team is in the window - but the "trophy" player acquisitions are often best avoided (especially if the team is mid-table or lower), not least because of their cost in terms of players and draft capital. Treloar, Judd, Shiel, Beams (both ways), Hogan to Fremantle and Tim Kelly are examples of such deals creating problems for the clubs they joined and heavily favouring the team they left. By contrast, Lynch to Richmond and Cameron/Dangerfield to Geelong are trades that favoured the receiving teams. Lynch was a trade for need for a team already at the peak - Richmond had no genuine target forward and Lynch was certainly that. Dangerfield and Cameron are tricky ones to evaluate from a neutral perspective - both were fantastic acquisitions for Geelong but I remain bewildered as to how they could fit them in the salary cap. If they hadn't won in 2022, you'd probably say Geelong hadn't achieved what those acquisitions promised.

One thing that is plain enough is that it is undesirable to trade out high picks for mids or flankers. That's likely because mids and flankers are easily found in the draft. By all means, trade them in for a need but don't mortgage the farm for them. Just a disclaimer - that principle probably goes straight out the window if Nick Daicos is ever (God forbid) on the market.

[Pies4shaw]

Rayner looked good, stood up in a cutthroat final.

There's a first time for everything. He was invisible the previous week and unsighted last night until the wheels fell off the Geelong bus. He was great at the end but I do not believe he can be trusted - he is a bit of a bully who depends on finding physical gaps in the opposition. There are plenty such gaps during the home and away but not too many in Finals. There are quite a few big, strong, fast, skilled players who get better in the heat of Finals. I don't believe Rayner is one of them. He's played 12 Finals, now - and that's the first one he's really shown anything in (unless you count his 3 goals at the Gabba in the QF drubbing of Port Adealaide last year, which, personally, I don't). Last night was the 5th time he has played in a PF or a GF and his previous record was, in total, 34 disposals and 1 goal, 1 behind (ie, an average of 8 and a half disposals and a quarter of a goal per game). Last night, he had 18 disposals (14 kicks), 5 tackles and kicked 2.2. Qtr by qtr, he had 1 disposal in the first quarter, 3 in the second, 11 (and 1.2) in the third and 3 (and a goal) in the 4th. That game should have been over before halftime. Of course, it's very funny that it wasn't and that Geelong choked so badly when the game was in their control but I'd want to see a lot more of that before I paid any attention at all to Rayner. But, even if I did, I'd still have the image in my mind of him trying to bully Collingwood early in the 2023 Grand Final and turning to water after Markov caught him in the midfield. Rayner has all the attributes necessary to have kicked the goal De Goey kicked lat in that GF - but he didn't: instead, Rayner was putting on, as is typical, his impersonation of a ringwraith in all the big moments.

[Pies2016]

@Pies4shaw. Totally agree how the multiple trading in of players worked for Collingwood twice ( 2010 and 2023 ) We should also be thankful there are just as many clubs like Essendon, Carlton and Saints who continue to wallpaper over the cracks and get it horribly wrong year in, year out. Let’s not forget, we paid a heavy price for the Beams and Treloar trades and all for little return, so there’s history to remind us we have our skeletons in this area too.
The Lions will be an interesting watch from the trading for the now perspective. Imagine an investment that includes Neale, Cameron, Daniher and Dunkley and doesn’t have a flag to show for it. Win this weekend and the list manager is a genius but lose again and the pressure to make amends while they all remain, increases exponentially.

[Magpie Russ]

As I left the MCG yesterday buoyed by an epic final (and a Geelong loss)... I felt a little jealous lately of Hawthorn's young list, Sydney's continued success, the lack of 'big' fish' at Collingwood, Geelong's catching of 'big fish' and their much vaunted success and great coach.
I looked in Geelong supporters faces to see if they were gutted, as I would be, or are they soothed somewhat by their continual 'finals success'? This week the press was about the number of Prelims the sides have made, the GFs the Swans have made under Longmire (1-4). How many finals Geelong have been under Scott... on an on.

"The Swans’ record of missing the finals just five times since 1996 is only rivalled by Geelong, who have missed the playoffs on eight occasions in that period."

From a Collingwood perspective - it is not enough. If we get to a GF only a win will do. We have lost enough. If we lose a prelim then it better be on the way to winning a flag the next year (see 22/23). So I do not subscribe to this continual success without the ultimate success. We have lived it as Collingwood supporters and were the Swans to lose this Saturday...

'Some begrudging musings - Hawthorn are a good side with a good list (of over celebrators). Rayner stood up (for once). Ollie Henry is going to be a good player. Heeney is a great player (finally had the season the press has been attributing to him for the last 5 years).

Go Fitzroy.

[stui magpie]

^

Looking at Hawthorn and the comments immediately above yours, you can see how it was planned. Trade out old players with currency left, go to the draft for a couple of years, bring in kids and pump games into them. Then last year they hit the trade table to top up with experience in needed positions, taking role players not stars. Now they're going to shore up their backline for the next 5 years.

Like all plans, it's only great if it works and theirs seems to be working.

[slangman]

^ People seem to forget that Hawthorn had a dream run with injuries this year.
Mitch Lewis aside they didn’t really have anyone of note unavailable for the entire season.
Time will tell whether they rode their luck this year or whether they are the real deal.

I still think that we are the best side in the AFL.
To miss finals so narrowly after a season marred by a revolving door of injuries tells me that we have plenty of upside next year.

How many games did McStay and Checkers play together this year???

[LaurieHolden]

I still think that we are the best side in the AFL.
To miss finals so narrowly after a season marred by a revolving door of injuries tells me that we have plenty of upside next year.
How many games did McStay and Checkers play together this year???

McStay has played 19 games total since crossing from BNE Lions in 2023 yielding 28 goals 11 behinds for a total of 13 wins and 6 losses.
14 games in 2023 - played a total of 11 with Mihocek for an 8W/3L record. (R1-R6 inj.>R17. Returned R18>Prelim)
His first season at Collingwood saw him yield 20 goals 7 behinds prior to injuring his knee in the Preliminary Final victory over the GWS GIANTS in which he'd kicked 2 goals.
5 games in 2024 - resumed R20 for 5 games in 2024, 0 games with Mihocek.

[jonmac1954]

^ People seem to forget that Hawthorn had a dream run with injuries this year.
Mitch Lewis aside they didn’t really have anyone of note unavailable for the entire season.
Time will tell whether they rode their luck this year or whether they are the real deal.

I respect Hawthorn's record but despise their methods.

I grew up as 'Kennedy's commando's' were starting to rise and saw the beginning of what was to become the guiding ethos - IMHO - of this club.

Every law and every sub clause of every law is stretched to the absolute limit every second of every match in every season.

Taken individually or even viewed casually their tactics seem unremarkable, but in my view it is a carefully considered and coldly implemented desire to force every possible advantage.

People despise Essendope but Hawthorn have been forcing every possible advantage for over 4 decades.

Scumbags.

[WITTY 35 DAICOS MAGIC]

Stringer news floats around again
Aswell as a linger of perryman
Set to opt the pies

Collingwood had been rumoured to inquire about Mitch Lewis

[Magpie Russ]

I hate Hawthorn more than I do Carlton (of course this can change if the start to have the wood over us)

Watching Grand Finals is well.. if you team is playing you can't breathe. If they are not playing... you might barrack for a team on the day but as soon as that siren goes... it's over.
It's like checking out the best looking girl at the big dance and she ends up with someone else... I'm not staying around while they trip the light fantastic.

Our solace is in the vanquished.
Brisbane losing - they will get the 2002/03 experience.
Sydney lose - they will have to wear the new GF wobbles. Lose on Saturday and it will be 4 in a row. 2014, 2016, 2022, 2024?

[WhyPhilWhy?]

Swoop Luke reporting that Reef, Kreugs and Charlie Dean are in limbo. Not delisted, no new contract offer either until after the draft and free agency period.