Finals qualification

[Jezza]

Another step closer.

[Johnno75]

Only a game behind 3rd now and a significant percentage gap on the teams that have had a draw.

[RudeBoy]

Another step closer indeed, but our fast growing injury toll is making our upward momentum that much harder. Despite the great performances of our 'newbies', there is a real possibility that our team cohesion may crack under the pressure of so many 'outs'. There is a good chance we'll start to get some of our stars back in a couple of weeks, after which we should be in better shape to attack the 2nd half of the season.

[Pies4shaw]

Which is the only team in the AFL that is unbeaten for the last 6 games?

[RudeBoy]

Where is David's form ladder?

[LaurieHolden]

Based on Wheelo Ratings AFL Simulation Results, we're running at a 32.5% chance for Top 4 and 70.9% chance of top 8 ~
https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_simulations.html

[K]

% will be largely irrelevant off the back of today's draw.

......provided we don't draw again this year!

Or another team around the same ladder position draws.

There'll prolly be another draw this year... but prolly not between teams directly competing with us for ladder position.
...

Yep, only took a few weeks! Adelaide & Brissy's "elimination final" ended with... err... both eliminated??

Our % is clearly greater than the other 3 drawers, and way less than the % of all of Syd, Geebung, Melb, GWS. Only Port and Carlton, both 2 points ahead, have similar %. So the draw kinda works for us, i.e. closer to a win than a loss.

But still plenty of games left for another draw...

[piedys]

yeah it's becoming a logjam in the 8 isn't it. A lot of teams around the same mark....
Then our next 4 games against Adelaide, Freo, Dogs and Melbourne will be pivotal to win those '8' points games and rise higher towards the top 4. I think we're going to need a few players back.
I assume Schultz will come back in Round 10 (Crows @ MCG), Mitchell and McCreery could be available in Round 11 (Freo @ Optus), De Goey in Round 12 (Dogs @ Marvel) and Checkers in Round 13 (Dees @ MCG)

Agree; the return of these players needs to be staggered as the rounds pass, providing they aren't rushed back in to the 22 before the soft tissue injuries heal sufficiently.

[Croat Pie]

14 games remaining.
We need to win these 8 - Adelaide, Freo, Doggies, Norf, GC, Essendon, Hawks, Richmond.

And then pinch 2-3 of these - Melbourne x 2, Bears, Scum, Geelong.

Adelaide MCG [H]
Fremantle Optus Stadium [A]
Western Bulldogs Marvel Stadium [H]
Melbourne MCG [H]
North Melbourne Marvel Stadium [A]
Gold Coast Heritage Bank Stadium [A]
Essendon MCG [H]
Geelong MCG [H]
Hawthorn MCG [A]
Richmond MCG [H]
Carlton MCG [H]
Sydney SCG [A]
Brisbane Lions MCG [H]
Melbourne MCG [A]

[Johnno75]

^ I suspect if we finish on 15.5 wins we will finish top 2. There is a bit of a log jam now with only 2 games between 2nd and 10th. Teams within the 8 will beat each other so 15 wins will definitely get you top 4.

[qldmagpie67]

Which is the only team in the AFL that is unbeaten for the last 6 games?

Essendon and us ?

[qldmagpie67]

^ I suspect if we finish on 15.5 wins we will finish top 2. There is a bit of a log jam now with only 2 games between 2nd and 10th. Teams within the 8 will beat each other so 15 wins will definitely get you top 4.

Tend to agree
Think this season there will be games dropped by teams expected to win so that’ll create a logjam
We need to keep banking points against team we expect to beat and those who might be competing against us of a finals spot

[Pies4shaw]

Which is the only team in the AFL that is unbeaten for the last 6 games?

Essendon and us ?

Essendon’s record over their last 6 games is LWWDWW, so no. You were half-right, though.

[BazBoy]

[BazBoy]

Tonight we rise again as the first of the five sides 2 premiership points above us got walloped
Now boys get out and woop them Crows