Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign

[What'sinaname]

^ Vivek's supporters look likely to vote Trump.

I think if DeSantis suspends his campaign, then you will see a 75 - 25 Trump - Haley vote.

If Haley suspends, then it will be more 60 / 65 - 40 / 35 Trump - DeSantis.

[Pies4shaw]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-big-iowa-win-included-signs-trouble-moderates/story?id=106463262

A broad analysis - but I am interested in this (see my post above):

According to the entrance poll analysis, Trump won just 37% of four-year college graduates, 42% of independents and 20% of moderates.

I read the article and found these figures hard to parse, to be honest (given these are, firstly, contingent on whichever subset of the people in those demographics are likely to attend a Republican caucus in the first place, and then divided into which ones voted for Trump as opposed to other candidates). It doesn’t tell us, for instance, what percentage of DeSantis or Haley voters would just end up voting for Trump anyway if he were the candidate, so really not sure how we can draw anything from that in terms of his chances in the election. Otherwise, surely the primary is widely assumed to be a foregone conclusion now, and he wouldn’t need the support of those demographics anyway so long as he has the loyal Republican base behind him. But someone please enlighten me if I’m missing something!

The fascist is obviously going to get the nomination - the issue that interests me is whether in so deciding they are pre-selecting a less-electable candidate. It cuts both ways - the people who want Haley to be the nominee will, for the most part, fall in line to vote for Trump and the people who want Trump to be the nominee would, for the most part, fall in line to vote for Haley (they're not going to vote for Biden, are they?). But - out in the real world where not everyione automatically votes Republican - there appears to be some suggestion (I put it no higher than that) that voters who might change their vote might change from a moderate to Haley but not from a moderate to Trump. The Republican vote is - save for any question of mobilisation of voting numbers - a zero sum game. If they want to win the election, they have to get some people who voted against Trump last time to vote for their party this time.

The article I linked a few days back showed the (present - and therefore wholly unreliable) head-to-head Trump v Biden, De Santis v Biden and Haley v Biden numbers. Those suggested that Haley was more likely to beat Biden head-to-head than Trump. They were both ahead of Biden in those polls - but Trump and De Santis were only just ahead (and probably within the margin of error of that sort of polling), whereas Haley was more clearly ahead.

[David]

That makes sense to me, and I agree that Haley probably stands a better chance of bringing back some "moderates" in a head-to-head election with Biden (though hard to know how many Trumpists would stay home or vote for someone like RFK Jr in her stead). There's also the not-inconceivable possibility of Trump simply running third party if he lost the primary. But yeah, I don't think it's very likely we'll get to see either of these eventualities.

[Jezza]

^ Vivek's supporters look likely to vote Trump.

I think if DeSantis suspends his campaign, then you will see a 75 - 25 Trump - Haley vote.

If Haley suspends, then it will be more 60 / 65 - 40 / 35 Trump - DeSantis.

The overwhelming majority of Vivek's supporters will flock to Trump.

Most DeSantis supporters prefer Trump over Haley, but got sick of the baggage that came with Trump.

If Haley suspends her campaign, I think the majority flock to DeSantis first before Trump.

[David]

Only going on secondhand info here, but polls are apparently suggesting Haley is going to do very well in New Hampshire on Tuesday and if not win, could push Trump pretty close. Apparently DeSantis (who threw a lot of resources into Iowa) is only polling in single digits there. I could imagine him dropping out in that scenario, but I guess we’ll see what happens.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Fivethirtyeight's poll averages suggest Trump is on about 49%, Haley aboiut 35% and De Santis 5%. Haley's polling has reached the area of "overlap of uncertainty margins" against Trump's polling. Interestingly, her polling has nearly doubled this month. De Santis looks to be fading away to complete irrelevance in New Hampshire - he and Haley were neck and neck at about 10% each around September. His polling has halved and hers has better than trebled since that time.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... hampshire/

[Pies4shaw]

Meanwhile, the national polling suggests the Democratic primaries are a non-event. Biden is on about 72% and no-one else is much abover 5%.

[What'sinaname]

DeSantis suspends his campaign and endorses Trump in his interview

[David]

I thought he was going to pull the plug soon, but that's even more sudden than I'd expected. As with Buttigieg and Klobuchar pulling out after South Carolina in 2020, it's possible he got a phone call from the Trump camp hoping to clear the field early and neutralise any chance of Haley winning New Hampshire (in this case perhaps offering DeSantis an administration role, maybe even the VP spot, as reward).

Whatever the reason, Trump should win New Hampshire by 20+ points now and have the nomination wrapped up by the end of February.

[Skids]

Current odds to be President.

Trump $2
Sleepy Joe $3

[lazzadesilva]

The odds will be far closer when November comes around. However I do not rule out a Trump win if some democrats don’t bother to vote.

[David]

One thing I don’t get about this is that Kamala Harris is $51 while a range of novelty or long-shot candidates have shorter odds (e.g. Michelle Obama at $18, Robert F Kennedy Jr at $21). Yet if Biden dies or is forced to step down due to health issues, particularly in the second half of the year, Harris will be the Democratic candidate and surely be at least a half-decent chance to win, even if she’d be seen as the underdog against Trump. That to me is a far more plausible outcome than $51 suggests.

[What'sinaname]

Harris is no chance. $51 is generous.

[David]

[David]

Haley performing much more strongly on the early count in New Hampshire than I (and likely a lot of others) expected: with 13% counted, she's currently sitting on 46% of the vote vs Trump on 53%.