Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign

[David]

Chris Christie has dropped out of the Republican primary. That just leaves five candidates competing in the Iowa caucus on Monday (with results presumably coming through Tuesday morning our time).

[David]

[David]

We'll see results start to come in from the Iowa caucus at around 12:30 this afternoon (Melbourne time). Biggest points of interest are whether Trump's substantial lead in the polls holds up, who finishes second out of Haley and DeSantis (and by how much), and whether any of the other remaining candidates make any impact.

[Culprit]

My perception is Iowa is a State full of simpletons.

[David]

[David]

[David]

Up to 39% counted: Trump is on 52.8%, DeSantis is up to second with 20.0%, Haley trailing on 18.7% and Ramaswamy a clear fourth on 7.7%.

[David]

With voting all but wrapped up, Trump has won with 51.1%, and DeSantis came second with 21.2%, leading Haley on 19.1%. That's probably a less resounding win than some might have expected, but worth noting for perspective's sake that it's the biggest Iowa caucus victory by a non-incumbent president Republican candidate in at least fifty years. In 2016, Trump came second in Iowa with only 24% of the vote and still easily won the Republican nomination.

DeSantis probably outperformed expectations and Haley slightly underperformed, but the result between those two was still pretty tight. I expect both will be staying in the race for at least a little longer.

Ramaswamy, who finished fourth on 7.7%, has announced that he's officially dropping out, so there are only three significant candidates left now.

[Pies4shaw]

^ He's plainly going to be the Republican candidate. fivethirtyeight (perhaps not what it used to be since Nate Silver sold the business) has published polling showing that he had a high unfavourability rating overall but that he is very favourably viewed (circa 84%) by Republican voters nationally. It looks a little like he is rusted onto the Republican Party but may potentially not attract swinging voters like he did the first time around - in 2016, he had the benefit of running against a woman and being a celebirty but an unknown political quantity. He isn't that, now.

More specifically, if one looks over the individual polls, one will see that he's plus 60 (ie, 80% to 20%) amongst Republican voters but viewed unfavourably (call it it -10, 52 to 42) by the electorate samples as a whole. If that is reliable, it may be that he's viewed favourably by the people who are going to vote for him as Republican candidate, anyway, but a net negative for everybody else. You have to wonder whether that is the Republican candidate most likely to win the election, as distinct from the candidate most likely to be picked to stand as Republican candidate (this is a problem the Democrats have suffered from on many occasions over the journey). Paradoxically, it may be that one of the others who won't be picked as candidate could actually stand a better chance of being elected President than Trump. For a practical example, you will see polls on fivethiertyeight recording that Trump is leading the national numbers 69% to 14% (ie, +55%) against De Santis but that De Santis may be marginally more likely to beat Biden (+3 versus Biden) than Trump (+2 versus Biden) - and both are allegedly behind Haley (+8 versus Biden).

What matterrs, of course, for the Electoral College is if - and, if so, how - those trends play out, State by State and district by district when Trump runs in the actual poll - but it's way too early to worry about that. Just a trend to keep an eye on, I'd suggest.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... ald-trump/

[Magpietothemax]

De Santis and Haley have both pledged to continue with their respective campaigns, despite being soundly thrashed by Trump. This will be a bonus for Trump, because if only one of them had continued, that individual would have been able to consolidate the entire non-Trump Republican vote. As it stands, it will now be split between both.

[Pies4shaw]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps- ... =106463262

A broad analysis - but I am interested in this (see my post above):

According to the entrance poll analysis, Trump won just 37% of four-year college graduates, 42% of independents and 20% of moderates.

[What'sinaname]

It'll come down to whether progressives will come out to vote like 2020. If mail in votes return to long term average, Biden wont win either the electoral college or the popular vote.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Or if mouth-breathing arseholes come out to vote like they did in 2016.

Both things are "true" as far as they go - but neither is a useful way of analysing what's presently happening in the Republican primaries.

[What'sinaname]

^ Trump's rusted on supporters will walk over glass to vote.

The way it's going, Trump will win the republican nomination and win it easily.

New Hampshire should see DeSantis poll better - it's a more moderate State and South Carolina should be good for Haley given she was governor there.

Biden's popularity is low, and even some Dems are calling for him to do more to secure the border. The current border control is a mess under Biden - worse than under Trump - which in a really low bar.

[David]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-big-iowa-win-included-signs-trouble-moderates/story?id=106463262

A broad analysis - but I am interested in this (see my post above):

According to the entrance poll analysis, Trump won just 37% of four-year college graduates, 42% of independents and 20% of moderates.

I read the article and found these figures hard to parse, to be honest (given these are, firstly, contingent on whichever subset of the people in those demographics are likely to attend a Republican caucus in the first place, and then divided into which ones voted for Trump as opposed to other candidates). It doesn’t tell us, for instance, what percentage of DeSantis or Haley voters would just end up voting for Trump anyway if he were the candidate, so really not sure how we can draw anything from that in terms of his chances in the election. Otherwise, surely the primary is widely assumed to be a foregone conclusion now, and he wouldn’t need the support of those demographics anyway so long as he has the loyal Republican base behind him. But someone please enlighten me if I’m missing something!