Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Post by pietillidie »

Magpietothemax wrote:Condemning Zelensky for what he is, a US and NATO stooge in NATO's undeclared war against Russia....
That's entirely losing the plot. The Idea being put forward bears absolutely no resemblance to reality where only one party is invading another country, killing its people, wrecking its infrastructure and economy, and stealing its resources. And it's not Ukraine, the Baltic States, Poland, Moldova, their neighbours or NATO.

Even less defensible, in desperation to hold pure to The Idea, this reduces Ukrainians to clueless American pawns without agency or even the right to have an opinion on their own existence. Are Ukrainians begging NATO to leave? I think not, and not because the mainstream media is obfuscating widespread underground love for the Russian invasion.

There's nothing wrong with suspicion, misgivings and counter ideas; in fact, they are essential given the powers that be. But here is far more to the world than the Great Satan America.
Magpietothemax wrote:Putin invaded because he hoped in this way to apply pressure on the US and thereby establish some kind of security guarantee for Russia that NATO would cease its neverending encroachment towards Russia's borders.
This is plainly absurd. No one anywhere wants a square metre of Russian tundra, or has ever hinted as much. It's propaganda of the most farcical kind that swallows Russian pretext hook, line and sinker; obviously, it's the vulnerable parties around Russia that need the security guarantees.

Only one country is being invaded, and it's not Russia.

There is no purported or imaginary 3D double-pike 360 degree secret chess game that changes the basic facts.

If you want to look at hidden motive, see who's benefitting from supply shortages, including Russia and its OPEC buddies. That will no doubt drag in plenty of Western grifters, but we already know they're scumbags.

Putin, Anglo-America and NATO are the easiest actors to read by a mile. I don't trust any of them, but this is not that hard a situation to unpick; the primary intention is to get Russia out of Ukraine and to nullify its destruction and destabilisation, whatever other secondary intentions linger.
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pietillidie wrote:
Magpietothemax wrote:Putin invaded because he hoped in this way to apply pressure on the US and thereby establish some kind of security guarantee for Russia that NATO would cease its neverending encroachment towards Russia's borders.
This is plainly absurd. No one anywhere wants a square metre of Russian tundra, or has ever hinted as much. It's propaganda of the most farcical kind th
I am sorry to say this PTID, but what is absurd is your claim that "no one wants a square metre of Russian tundra''
Russia is a massive storehouse of strategic raw materials, rare earth minerals of critical importance to modern capitalist industry. The US government is currently in the process of instituting through the ICIC the case for the criminal prosecution of war crimes against Putin (even though the US itself does not recognise this institution, because it fears that the numerous war criminals who occupied and currently occupy the White House would face prosecution if it did). This is because the US is opposed to any negotiated settlement to the Ukrainian war and aims for regime change in Russia, replacing the Putin government with a series of multiple pro US governments which will hand over the strategic resources of Russia for exploitation by US corporations.
If you want to read an analysis of this here is an article:
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/0 ... e-m28.html
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Post by pietillidie »

Magpietothemax wrote:
pietillidie wrote:
Magpietothemax wrote:Putin invaded because he hoped in this way to apply pressure on the US and thereby establish some kind of security guarantee for Russia that NATO would cease its neverending encroachment towards Russia's borders.
This is plainly absurd. No one anywhere wants a square metre of Russian tundra, or has ever hinted as much. It's propaganda of the most farcical kind th
I am sorry to say this PTID, but what is absurd is your claim that "no one wants a square metre of Russian tundra''
Russia is a massive storehouse of strategic raw materials, rare earth minerals of critical importance to modern capitalist industry. The US government is currently in the process of instituting through the ICIC the case for the criminal prosecution of war crimes against Putin (even though the US itself does not recognise this institution, because it fears that the numerous war criminals who occupied and currently occupy the White House would face prosecution if it did). This is because the US is opposed to any negotiated settlement to the Ukrainian war and aims for regime change in Russia, replacing the Putin government with a series of multiple pro US governments which will hand over the strategic resources of Russia for exploitation by US corporations.
If you want to read an analysis of this here is an article:
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/0 ... e-m28.html
When I say no one wants a square meter of Russian tundra I mean no one has practical designs on it. Sure, there are plenty of scumbags who'd take anything they can get their hands on, but Russia is a massively militarised nuclear power. It's so obvious no one would even try. Desiring Russian resources is like Elon Musk desiring to rule the universe; he can desire it all he likes, but that has no bearing on reality.

And you call that 'analysis'? No offence, but that's Wikipedia-level common knowledge :? It says nothing, absolutely nothing at all, about Ukrainian agency, what Ukraine wants, what Ukraine's neighbours want, and the effects of inflation and supply shortages right now. And the agency of Ukraine and its neighbours, and its collision with imperial power, is where the hard work lies. That article is fighting in the little league of life, quoting general knowledge as if its audience is some half-witted hick in the hills waving an American flag.

Even more bizarre, the very same article overlooks the actual leverage being used: Putin blackmailing the world into turning a blind eye to its murder and theft by manipulating the global market. Does the suffering caused by the oil, gas and wheat price spike, and their inflationary effects, mean nothing?

Plenty of us have been working to help rid the earth of those damned, tyrant-funding pollutants that Putin is wielding. The same pollutants that funded Afhanistan and Iraq disasters. It's astonishing that the 'analysis' hasn't connected OPEC profteering and global whitewashing efforts, feverishly underway, to the fact the writing is on the wall for ugly old energy. Nor that the scumbag waited until the world was on its knees at the hands of Covid to unleash more inflation hell.

Absolutely no one has a problem with Russia defending its agreed territory and resources. It's the wanton violence against its neighbours and economic blackmail people care about. How does this not rate or even register?

It's unbecoming to be so obsessed with The Idea that one cannot grant even the slightest weight to the agency to the Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine, Moldova, or Georgia or Chechnya, who would rid themselves of living under the menace of Putin or in its shadow. Those people and their agency and wellbeing are dismissed as collateral damage; small beans in the war to prove that only one kind of bad matters: American imperialism.

So strained is this fundamentalism that it even implies that the real victim here is corrupt, outdated, delusional, isolated, oppressive imperialist elite Russia. Not Russian citizens, not the victims of imperialist Russia, but elite Russia and its billionaire thugs ike Putin.

But, but America!

Believe your eyes not your childhood indignation: Russia is the one invading its neighbours and stealing their resources. It is a nuclear and military power that can obviously, ridiculously obviously, defend itself. It doesn't need your help except to reform for the sake of its own citizens and neighbours, and those suffering downstream from its inflation and shortages.

The concrete thinking evident in the article above, and rife in socialist circles, is a classical psychiatric fundamentalism that can't cope with contradiction. Plenty of people who opposed Afghanistan and Iraq, and see them in the same vein as Indochina and Central America, already know that stuff. It's bleedingly obvious. There are no awards for recognising the obvious, nor forming a self-righteous sect around the obvious. Yes, the world has deep flaws and contradictions.

In the present context it just doesn't matter that the US is compromised and amoral. It doesn't even matter if Russia is compromised and amoral. That's what powerful self-justifying empires do. Those are the parameters we inherited and are working with.

What matters is wrangling the best outcomes for the most people; protecting the rights of the people whose land is being stolen and family members are being killed, and upholding their agency. And plain as day their preference is not to hand their lands, resources, lives and political choice to Russia, and to send America and NATO home.

Chomsky loves to quote polls to show that the will of the people differs from the will of the elite. Yet somehow, the will of Ukrainians can go to hell. This is not Iraq, which was widely opposed. It is backed by a major consensus, in complete contrast to Iraq. Ukrainian lives and agency, and the stability of a region and global economy that sustains hundreds of millions and billions of people in turn, matter infinitely more than proving that The Idea is right and everyone else is wrong.

Denying the agency of Ukrainians and the damage Russian violence and economic blackmail is doing to the planet just isn't an act of special moral or intellectual insight; rather, it's an act of solipsism. A stubborn narcissism that puts childish old arguments and egos above people and their agency. Revenge of the (Socialist) Nerds was a teen comedy, not a moral code for adults.

This is not the time or place to obsess over Anglo-American failings and contradictions to the ignorance of everything else. They will take centre stage once more soon enough. I am also sure there will come a time for imperfect resolution of some kind, but I'll let Ukraine and its neighbours lead on that because only they will know what that should entail. Thus far, they are very clear it doesn't mean kowtowing to the invaders and normalising their thuggery and blackmail.
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Post by David »

"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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Post by Magpietothemax »

There are many points that i would like to respond to here David, so I will isolate them one by one for clarity.
David wrote:MTTM, the most basic point to acknowledge here (which you are not doing) is that the 14,000 figure includes civilians and soldiers killed by both sides.
1) The civil war in Ukraine commenced in 2014 just after the Maidan coup. This is because the Ukrainian government brought to power at this time was perceived by the Russian population in the Donbass to be an existential threat, due to the presence of Ukrainian fascists within the regime who openly proclaimed their anti Russian xenophobia.
2) Russian intervention into the Donbass region has been a response to the systematic intervention of the US and German governments into the Ukraine.
The Putin government has for many years expressed its opposition to the continuing advance of NATO to its borders.
3) You appear to be oblivious of the fact that fascists are the support base for both the Zelensky government and the Poroshenko government. How does this not highlight to you that the actions of the Ukrainian military are of an extremely right wing nature?? How does this not highlight to you why the Russian populations in the Donbass might have felt the need to secede from the Ukraine??
4) There are many contradictory figures for the exact proportions of those who have died in the Donbass...You quote the figures of a discredited pro imperialist hack like Karadjis, who in turn quotes the figures of an imperialist organisation such as the UN.
Someone else could quote the figures of the Russian government, or that of the pro-Russian separatists.
What is clear is that at least 14 000 people have died. Why? Because the survival of the ethnic Russian population in Ukraine was threatened by the promotion and political empowerment of Ukrainian fascism.
The fact that you never acknowledge this fundamental fact is of enormous importance.
You are attempting to dissolve the fundamental reality into quibbles about how many of each ethnicity died in the conflict in the Donbass.
The most important question is what are the origins of this conflict?
Whether it is 11 000 ethnic Russians and 3 000 Ukrainian soldiers, or 10 000 ethnic Russians and 4 000 Ukrainian soldiers, is actually beside the point.
Moreover, you do not even consider another salient question: why did the refugees flee to Russia, rather than to Ukraine itself?
Precisely becasue they knew that the Ukrainian government was out to kill them.
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Post by Magpietothemax »

PTID
There are very many aspects in your post that I disagree with. I will deal here with the one htat I see most important:
pietillidie wrote: So strained is this fundamentalism that it even implies that the real victim here is corrupt, outdated, delusional, isolated, oppressive imperialist elite Russia. Not Russian citizens, not the victims of imperialist Russia, but elite Russia and its billionaire thugs ike Putin.

This is a total distorsion of everything i have said here. In every comment I have written, i have made clear my opposition to the Putin regime and its invasion of the Ukraine. I have always made clear that Putin represents the corrupt layer of Russian oligarchs who are desperately seeking to defend their privileges by reaching an accommodation with NATO. NATO however does not want to allow the oligarchs any privileges, and instead demands their complete capitulation so that US corporations and those of its NATO ''allies'' (Germany, UK,, France) can loot the resources of Russia. That is why the Biden administration keeps escalating the war, and doing everything it can to prevent a negotiated ceasefire.
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^No one, absolutely no one, is looting or can 'loot' Russian resources except the Russian elite, because those resources are protected by a massive military force, underwritten by all manner of military tech and nuclear arms. No matter how many times you clutch at that straw it will still clearly be nonsensical.

Also, note I said that view implies support for Russian elites. The average Russian has zero say in the matter except at risk of prison and persecution. Everyone who speaks out against the war and Putin gets locked up. Everyone else is getting permanently fleeced and opressed by a corrupt, authoritarian elite and culture.

So, just who are you supporting and to what end?

It's definitely not a defensive war because Russia is impenetrable and absolutely no one is invading and looting Russia. And it's certainly not a grass roots war, because only the Russian elite have a say in what's happening.

You keep going back to a highly disputed and unclear number of Russians who were being victimised in the Donbas. I'm sure it's some number, and I don't like it at all, but I also know that was a two-sided conflict, and even then those ethnic Russians are clearly best protected by Ukraine joining the EU, negotiations over which will include cleaning up governance and judicial process.

Justifying Putin and dismissing Ukrainian and Eastern European agency on that basis is an extremely flimsy argument, helps absolutely no one except Russian overlords. Absolutely no one else is benefiting from your insistence; Russian actions are even causing downstream economic suffering across the planet.

Yes, Ukraine has/had high corruption levels. But you know full well Russia is even worse on the bigotry front, while Ukraine joining the EU is the best way by far of reforming that historical corruption which, you guessed it, they inherited lock, stock and barrel from the notoriously bigoted and nationalist Soviet empire.

Eastern European misery has historically been greatly exacerbated by Russia and the Soviet Union, not ameliorated. Go and ask the Poles, Romanians, Hungarians and East Germans if they'd rather go back in time.

I just don't get what good you imagine you're angling for. It's certainly not the good of the average Ukrainian, Eastern European or Russian, whose lives will only be improved by Ukraine leaning in to the EU and Russia going home.

The most likely explanations for the delusional fruit cake losing his mind are Ukrainian reform and generational shift on the one hand, and threats to his pathetic fossil fuel revenues from the green energy transition on the other. Well, guess what? His psychopathic plan to shake down the world during the pandemic and to bully Ukraine into submission failed.

Above all, we can be absolutely certain of is: Putin didn't go on a killing and wreckage spree because he gives the slightest toss about the lives of ordinary Russians, least of all those in the Donbas.
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Post by David »

"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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Post by pietillidie »

^I can't fathom how anyone would fail to grasp that this is overwhelmingly about Russian meddling, then outright violence, to block the inevitable Ukrainian progression towards the EU. This progression is sane and natural, and even more so with generational shift, with the proof of concept well and truly demonstrated by Ukraine's neighbours.

It is Americanocentric, geographically ignorant, psychologically bereft and highly insulting of Ukrainians to think the Ukrainian preference for EU association over Russian vassalage is an American invention. It is also absurd to think that the US has anything like the influence Russia has on Ukraine. Remove both Russian and US influence, and the sane and sensible move towards the EU is much faster and more comprehensive.

Yes, one expects Russian nationalists, backward old-schoolers and those earning a living off the old corrupt ways to be less enthused about moving towards the EU. And sure, when you live inside something the old ways have their sentimental attraction and are not as unsavoury as they are to outsiders because you're used to them. But give Ukrainians credit for being able to spot the difference between the EU and Russia all on their own without American help :roll:

The whole thing didn't come to a head around a coc£-blocked EU Association Agreement by chance.
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Post by Culprit »

My observations.

Who's at fault? Who cares when civilians are dying?

The world's ammunition supply is rapidly depleting. We have HIMARS on order and the ammunition we've ordered would be spent in basically 24 hours if we look at the Ukraine's usage.

Ukraine's are being fed firing coordinates by paper due to flaws exposed in technology. They move and fire and then move back. Proven very effective, maybe the carrier pigeon will return.

There is a major area on the battlefield where GPS does not work which rendered much of the equipment useless.

Until the West starts providing Ukraine with decent aircraft to cut Russia's air dominance the war will just continue.

This war is proven very effective in testing equipment, vehicles, and tactics.

Drones are becoming very cost-effective. The WWII German Flying Bomb was way before its time.

Refugees fleeing the war zone are becoming a bigger problem than the war itself.

We've gone from everyone being an expert on Covid to now being an expert on International Affairs and Military Operations and Equipment.
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Post by Magpietothemax »

Quote from you PTID:
"'Believe your eyes not your childhood indignation: Russia is the one invading its neighbours and stealing their resources. It is a nuclear and military power that can obviously, ridiculously obviously, defend itself. It doesn't need your help except to reform for the sake of its own citizens and neighbours, and those suffering downstream from its inflation and shortages.''

Reset:
"Believe your eyes not your childhood indignation: the US is the one invading defenceless countries and stealing their resources (Iraq, Afghanistan). It is a nuclear and military power that can obviously, ridiculously obviously, defend itself. It doesn't need your help except to reform for the sake of its citizens (stop gutting social security, stop halving the wages of 2nd tier workers in the auto industry, stop US police killing sprees). It does however need your false claims attributing inflation to Russia when in reality inflation has been driven by the policies of the US government and Fed Reserve: quantitative easing since 2008, redoubled during Covid...followed by supply chain issues due to workers being sickened by covid. "'
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Post by Magpietothemax »

Hi David,
You have made a very detailed response, and i respect this very much because it shows how much this issue means to you.
It also means alot to me. Not because anyone close to me hails from this region of the world, but because so many historical lies and propaganda is being utilised to poison understanding of the tragic events now unfolding.
I will respond to the most important points, as I see them, one by one.
Quote from your response:
How do you think the Ukrainian government should be responding to this, other

than to surrender and accept all of Russia's terms (which include leaving the now larger areas of the country that it has annexed)? Was it legitimate under the circumstances to fight back?


The Ukrainian government is an agent of the US government. It is serving up the young men, and civilians, of Ukraine as cannon fodder for the interests of US imperialism. The Ukrainian government is not "fighting back''. It is offering up the young men of Ukraine to prosecute the war of the Biden administration, aimed at regime change in Russia, with the replacement of the putin government by a collection of powerless statelets with governments eager to offer up the mineral wealth of the former Russia to exploitation by US corporations provided they get a kick back.
The war against Russia had been planned by the US and its NATO allies since 2014, the date from which they began massively rearming and retraining the Ukrainian military.

Both the Ukrainian government and the Putin government are enemies of the Russian and Ukrainian workers. the only solution to this crisis is to unite the workers of both countries against both these criminal governments.
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Magpietothemax wrote:Quote from you PTID:
"'Believe your eyes not your childhood indignation: Russia is the one invading its neighbours and stealing their resources. It is a nuclear and military power that can obviously, ridiculously obviously, defend itself. It doesn't need your help except to reform for the sake of its own citizens and neighbours, and those suffering downstream from its inflation and shortages.''

Reset:
"Believe your eyes not your childhood indignation: the US is the one invading defenceless countries and stealing their resources (Iraq, Afghanistan). It is a nuclear and military power that can obviously, ridiculously obviously, defend itself. It doesn't need your help except to reform for the sake of its citizens (stop gutting social security, stop halving the wages of 2nd tier workers in the auto industry, stop US police killing sprees). It does however need your false claims attributing inflation to Russia when in reality inflation has been driven by the policies of the US government and Fed Reserve: quantitative easing since 2008, redoubled during Covid...followed by supply chain issues due to workers being sickened by covid. "'
As someone who vociferously opposed Iraq and Afghanistan, and saw them in the same vein of imperialist arrogance and disregard as Indochina and Central America, I'm just not your Huckleberry.

Independent judgement is never about hiding behind the overlapping sets of sweeping assumptions. It's about weighing the fundamental differences in the nuance of context. For the large part, that excludes the theories I had in my head in 1990. No one gets paid anymore for making the tautological observation that the superpower is influential. The world is ridiculously, unrecognisably different from a mind's eye that still reduces history to Anglo-America, the Soviet Union, and the third world.

The inability to grasp the importance of the EU, and the absorption of Eastern Europe into the European Union (the clue is in the names, surely), says everything to me about how outdated people's conceptions are. If someone falls at that hurdle, then they have no hope of grasping 2023 Ukraine.

This is the present-day equivalent of not knowing in the early 00s that the Coalition of the Willing was not only completely clueless about Afganistan, Iraq and the Muslim World, but was driven by corruption and conflicts of interest (Bush and Cheney) and sycophantic glory seeking (Man-of-Steel Howard and insufferable narcissist Blair), and would therefore make a mess of the region.

But you don't see how it's different because you see some similar names involved, missing everything else that's happened.

The far left in the UK demonstrated this same bizarre blind spot, and the very same Anglospheric fetish it decries, when it voted with the far right on Brexit. It's as if it hadn't read anything, travelled or studied or engaged global business, since the Bosnian War, or as if Afghanistan and Iraq ratified Chomsky 1980 forever more, rather than marking the end end of the old model.

I can tell you right now, if you'd taken the temperature of Ukraine through global business or Eastern European friends or Eastern Europeans working and travelling in Europe, you just wouldn't be making the mistake of imposing Chomskian 1980 metatheory on either Ukraine or the region.

The thing that worries me most is that the eye is so far off the ball that an error of Brexit proportions could be made on this, and it is an infinitely higher stakes game.
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