Victorian State Election 2022

[Pies4shaw]

The bottom line is that people who thought the election might be close were engaging in wishful thinking and ignoring the data. No-one in Australian politics gets elected on the primary vote. They get elected two-party preferred - and anyone with half a brain could have seen from the figiures Jezza was posting last week that the ALP was going to walk it in. This, eg, is what one competent analyst published on Saturday morning, based on those same figures. The article is informative - but you don't really need to go beyond the headline: https://theconversation.com/final-victo ... ead-195107

The ALP's victory was so decisive that they have also plainly all but won the 2026 election.

Andrews' winning numbers in the three elections have been 47, 55 and somewhere between 52-56 seats. Even when the LNP was last in government here, it only won 45 seats (and the ALP 43) on a two-party preferred vote of about 51.5% to 48.5%. When Kennett was elected the first time, the LNP won the two-party preferred vote 56.5% to 43.5% and returned 61 seats to the ALP's 27. When you put the ALP and Green seats together in the mix, Saturday's election is about the same rogering but with the political tables turned.

For a third-term opposition, this was a shellacking of historic proportions. Political parties come and go. The Libs may have gone.

[watt price tully]

[Pies4shaw]

Well, according to another Crikey article, Peta spent Sky’s election-night coverage looking as if her soul was leaving her body.

[watt price tully]

Bolt must be Nostradamus: after Daniel Andrews third decisive win which theoretically takes him to 12 years it may well be the beginning of his end

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... n-on-earth

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... pper-house

[David]

While I support their cause, I do wonder if some people are being a little optimistic in lumping Legalise Cannabis (who could end up with as many as 4 upper house seats) in with the "progressive" bloc. Single-issue parties are notorious for attracting all sorts, and there's already precedent for elected members of this party to go off on their own tangent: one of the two Legalise Cannabis candidates sent to the upper house in last year's WA state election ended up being a staunch anti-vaxxer and transphobe, for instance.

For better or for worse, it looks unlikely that Labor will depend on their votes to get legislation through, but it does seem screwy that a party that has scored around 4% of the upper house primary vote could end up with more seats than the Greens (who scored well in the double figures in some upper house regions) thanks to preference harvesting.

[David]

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-29/ ... /101711288

[watt price tully]

I feel sorry for Bec Judd who opined some time ago about the high crime rates in Brighton and that she felt unsafe in her own home (McMansion) part of the anti Dan Andrews campaign being waged by her & her ilk. After being amplified by the Murdoch press (making people feel anxious then attributing this to the thrice elected Premier) the crime stats came out showing lower crime in Brighton and showing what a fraud she is when it comes to ‘her political lies.

[stui magpie]

^

Don't feel sorry for her, she's made a shitpile of money for doing basically nothing. Instagram Influencer, FMD, her and her ilk should all be herded into a shipping container, along with every person who's been on one of those reality dating programs, and dropped off in Antarctica with a single camera to stream their collective last hours.

[think positive]

and the Kartrashians! Ugh

[Jezza]

Thanks for the updates on the Legislative Council, David.

In relation to the Legislative Assembly:

Seats (69.9% counted)

Labor = 51
Coalition = 25
Greens = 4
Other = 0

Primary Vote: (69.9% counted)

Labor = 37.1% (-5.8]
Coalition = 35.0% (-0.2)
Greens = 10.9% (+0.2)
Other = 17.0% (+5.8]

Two Party Preferred: (69.9% counted)

Labor = 54.2% (-3.1)
Coalition = 45.8% (+3.1)

Seats gained and lost:

Labor gains Glen Waverley and Ripon.
Labor lost Richmond and Nepean.

Coalition gains Nepean, Shepparton, Morwell and Mildura.
Coalition lost Glen Waverley and Ripon.

Greens gain Richmond.
Greens have no losses.

Independents have no gains.
Independents lost Mildura, Morwell and Shepparton.

Seats in Doubt:

Bass = Labor 50.1 - 49.9 Coalition - (70.8% counted)
Hastings = Labor 50.8 - 49.2 Coalition - (79.1% counted)
Hawthorn = Coalition 50.7 - 49.3 Teal - (71.0% counted)
Mornington = Coalition 50.4 - 49.6 Teal - (81.0% counted)
Northcote = Labor 51.3 - 48.7 Greens - (72.6% counted)
Pakenham = Labor 50.0 - 50.0 Coalition - (75.7% counted)
Preston = Labor 52.2 - 47.8 Independent - (63.0% counted)

[Pies4shaw]

Update after counting today. Decided: ALP 52, Greens 4, LNP 26. In doubt: 3 likely ALP (Bass, Hastings and Preston), 1 likely LNP (Mornington), 1 on an actual knife-edge (Pakenham - Libs leading by 5 votes, 80.1% counted) and Narracan needs a fresh election.

So, it's looking like ALP 55 or 56, Greens 4, LNP 27 or 28 before the Narracan election. The LNP (or possibly a conservative independent) will win Narracan, so it looks likely that the Assembly will see the ALP with either the same majority as before the election or one additional seat, plus the presence of 4 Greens. It certainly appeatrs as if, despite everything, the progressive numbers in the Assembly will have increased by either 1 or 2 since the 2018 election.

[Jezza]

UPDATE.

Seats (73.1% counted)

Labor = 52
Coalition = 26
Greens = 4
Other = 0

Primary Vote: (73.1% counted)

Labor = 37.1% (-5.8]
Coalition = 35.0% (-0.2)
Greens = 10.9% (+0.2)
Other = 17.0% (+5.8]

Two Party Preferred: (73.1% counted)

Labor = 54.2% (-3.1)
Coalition = 45.8% (+3.1)

Seats gained and lost:

Labor gains Glen Waverley and Ripon.
Labor lost Hawthorn, Richmond and Nepean.

Coalition gains Nepean, Shepparton, Morwell, Mildura and Hawthorn.
Coalition lost Glen Waverley and Ripon.

Greens gain Richmond.
Greens have no losses.

Independents have no gains.
Independents lost Mildura, Morwell and Shepparton.

Seats in Doubt:

Bass = Labor 50.3 - 49.7 Coalition - (77.8% counted)
Hastings = Labor 50.9 - 49.1 Coalition - (82.2% counted)
Mornington = Coalition 50.5 - 49.5 Teal - (84.5% counted)
Pakenham = Coalition 50.0 - 50.0 Labor - (80.1% counted)
Preston = Labor 50.9 - 49.1 Independent - (72.2% counted)