Australian federal election 2022

[doriswilgus]

I saw a tweet today from ABC election analyst Anthony Green.He said it’s quite possible that the Liberals will only have three seats in metropolitan Melbourne and none in Adelaide or Perth.Just get your heads around that statistic.That party might only have three seats in three of the biggest cities in the country.

The Liberal party has been absolutely decimated in the capital cities in this election,losing large numbers of seats to Labor,the Greens and the Teals.They’re in a world of pain following this election.This might be the start iof a major realignment in Australian politics.

[Pies4shaw]

The Libs have confirmed their frustration at finding that their dislike of Andrews was not shared by their usual supporters in their "blue ribbon" electorates.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... n-strategy

... Liberal strategists were confident there was another story playing out in the outer suburbs of Melbourne.

They believed there was an “anti-Dan” sentiment and attempted to capitalise on it, issuing how-to-vote cards urging voters to “send Daniel Andrews a message”. An ad campaign, targeting voters in Corangamite and McEwen, attempted to paint Albanese as Andrews’s puppet.

The result? The seats of Corangamite and Dunkley are marginal no more, with a 7.7% and 4.2% swing to Labor MPs Libby Coker and Peta Murphy respectively at the time of writing.

....

Asked to explain the party’s drubbing in a state once described as the jewel in the Liberal crown, Senator Jane Hume conceded: “We thought there would be a bigger Dan Andrews effect in Victoria and there hasn’t [been], which I find disappointing.”

....

Former Labor campaign strategist turned pollster Kos Samaras said the research his firm RedBridge conducted ahead of the election found “no evidence” to suggest a dislike of Andrews would translate to votes for the Liberals.

“The Libs drove their buses out to safe Labor seats hunting for votes and left their homes burning. They’ve been absolutely decimated,” he says.

“It’s a complete repeat of the 2018 state election.”

In 2018, there were swings against Labor in the outer west, but more significantly, the Coalition shed 10 of its 37 lower house seats, including the blue-ribbon seat of Hawthorn, which is a part of Kooyong at a state level. It also came dangerously close to losing Brighton, part of Goldstein, to a 19-year-old candidate, Labor’s Declan Martin. (Perhaps an indicator that the disillusionment in those two federal seats is not new.)

But if yesterday’s results are replicated on a state level at the November election, it would spell even more trouble for the opposition. Their leader, Matthew Guy, would lose his seat with a 7.9% swing against him, while the Liberal seats of Malvern and Kew would be under threat, and Labor could retain Hawthorn.

Sadly for the Libs, it appears that they missed the mark playing the politics of blame:

... as Andrews suggested, there was a feeling among these voters that the Liberal party had abandoned the state during the pandemic.

“The Liberal party thought that they were having a potshot at the Labor party, but … they were having a go at Victorians,” Tam, a voter in Higgins, told Guardian Australia.

“I took it personally. It has definitely swayed my vote.”

Voters we spoke to in the three electorates were outraged by the constant negative comparisons between Victoria and NSW, the lack of financial support after jobkeeper wrapped up but lockdowns dragged on, and most notably, the sluggish vaccination rollout.

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/ ... /101088070

Two of the safest Liberal seats in Australia have become marginal for the first time in recent history, surprising people in regional Western Australia who feared their votes would not matter.

[David]

[stui magpie]

it's been a real flip. It seems not long ago that the Senate was full of independents and minor parties, now it's pretty much just Lib/Nat, Lab and Greens. Lambie and Roberts are rendered irrelevant as Labor will be able to pass anything it wants provided the Greens support it.

[stui magpie]

At the moment, the AEC Tally room has (based on who's leading)

ALP 76
Lib/Nat 58
Independent 10
Greens 1
Katter 1
Centre Alliance 1

There's also 4 which has TCP unavailable, McNamara, Melbourne, Richmond and maranoa

[David]

[David]

The prospective Victorian UAP senator looks like an interesting character, by the way:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/vict ... 5anhw.html

During the campaign, Ralph Babet campaigned against vaccine mandates and spoke about the “ever-growing power and authoritarianism of the government”, blaming the mainstream media and major parties for causing division.

On Christmas Day in 2014, he pleaded not guilty to a charge of criminal damage, which was withdrawn in 2015, and in 2017, a criminal damage charge was recorded with no conviction because Babet accepted responsibility without pleading guilty. He pleaded guilty to unlawful assault in 2018 before a magistrate dismissed the charge when he complied with an undertaking.

[stui magpie]

His head looks like someone painted eyes on an egg.

Apparently a few of Clives candidates were familiar with the inside of a courtroom, there's an article in the Australian that I can't read.

[David]

[David]

[stui magpie]

So a Minority Government is still well and truly on the cards.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if a party gets the neat 76 to govern in their own right, they then have to give up one of those to be speaker which means they still need at least 1 crossbenchers support to get anything through the house of Reps?

[David]

[stui magpie]

Ah, Ok cheers. I didn't realise they had a casting vote.

[eddiesmith]

But it leaves them vulnerable if someone is absent or their ICAC isn’t toothless and they start dropping