Coronavirus 5 - Last Blood

[Dave The Man]

^ For reasons I had already advanced in relation to Omicron v Delta, before Omicron started killing people in large numbers, that's good from the individual risk perspective for each person who catches it but likely bad in terms of the overall numbers of deaths.

The other thing, of course, is to be wary of early media reports - because of the lengthy delay between infection and death in almost all cases, they keep assessing mortality risk before a variant has time to kill people. Remember all that garbage, allegedly based on early data out of South Africa, concerning Omicron as "the end of the pandemic"? At the time, daily deaths in South Africa were averaging under 20. If the media had waited a little (or paid attention at a subsequent time), they would have reported a seven-day rolling average of 240 deaths per day in South Africa by late February 2022.

IF people are Worried then they might as well put themselves into Lockdown.

We have only 6 People on Ventilators and 27 in ICU and that is getting at least 5k New Cases a Day 40k Active Cases so going by % chances of you Dying or Getting Badly Sick is Qute Small and Smaller again IF you are Fully Vaccinated

Correct weight Dave. If Omicron keeps evolving on it's current path, becoming more infectious but not more deadly, everyone is going to catch and by virtue of sheer number of infections we're likely to have constant daily deaths with seasonal spikes.

The people who are at high risk of death from Covid will need to take their own precautions and consider every person they come in contact with as a potential carrier.

less than pleasant for them, but better than dying and better than imposed restrictions on the vast majority of us.

What People should be the Most Careful?

[Pies4shaw]

The half of the population with serious pre-existing medical conditions, Dave. That's the problem with the logic Stui's presenting - until someone in that half of the population gets it and dies, they don't know if they were especially at risk. It reminds me of the old joke about the bloke testing bombs in the bombing-making factory with a hammer: "Bang! That one works... Bang, that one works...."

[stui magpie]

The half of the population with serious pre-existing medical conditions, Dave. That's the problem with the logic Stui's presenting - until someone in that half of the population gets it and dies, they don't know if they were especially at risk. It reminds me of the old joke about the bloke testing bombs in the bombing-making factory with a hammer: "Bang! That one works... Bang, that one works...."

Half of the population doesn't have pre-existing conditions that make them more prone to dying of Covid and you know it. More like 0.01%

[Pies4shaw]

The numbers operate as follows:

1. A little over half of the Australian population has chronic pre-existing conditions that we know makes some of them more susceptible to serious illness caused by COVID. We know that because that's what the forensic information tells us about those deaths and hospitalizations - but only after those people die or are hospitalized.

2. The older people are, the more likely they are to be in that bit more than half the population. Hence, as we know, COVID tends to kill older people.

3. Unhappily, we do not know before people are infected with COVID which of the people in that bit more than half of the population are the ones who are at particular risk of dying from the disease.

4. I agree with you that it is a small fraction of all of them. The difficulty is that, as with what we used to call - but, presumably, are not now allowed to call - Russian Roulette, of all of those people in the extraordinarily large risk group with "serious pre-existing conditions", the people who do die only know after the event whether their chamber was loaded.

Yours is a reasonably basic logical fallacy, born of the ability our medical experts now have to proffer a post hoc explanation of why a particular person got seriously ill or died.

Various people of differing psychological dispositions will deal with the information (assuming they even understand it) in a variety of ways.

Because you are what you describe as "optimistic", you assume that you aren't in the small, particularly-at-risk cohort and everything will be OK. Because that is mostly true of most people, you might well be right (and I certainly hope you are) - but that will be an accident, not a consequence of any reasoning process you think you have adopted.

Other people who think that their particularly serious medical conditions put them especially at risk may well go the other way and be unusually careful. In most cases, that will be equally ill-informed - and, for the most part, most of them will be avoiding risks that they can, of course, quite happily take. It probably doesn't matter for any of the people who are especially cautious - because they likely reduce, rather than increase, their risk by being especially cautious. Until they get COVID and do not get seriously unwell, though, they have no way of knowing whether they needed to be careful or not. Just as you don't - they're just taking a different view of the odds from the view you are taking.

Thus, your assertion that only a small proportion of the population has a pre-existing condition that makes them prone to dying of COVID is both trivially "true" and screamingly irrelevant - because the very large proportion of the population that may actually be in that relatively small sub-population won't know whether they were until they read "Cause of Death: COVID19" on their death certificate.

[Dave The Man]

1. A little over half of the Australian population has chronic pre-existing conditions that we know makes some of them more susceptible to serious illness caused by COVID. We know that because that's what the forensic information tells us about those deaths and hospitalizations - but only after those people die or are hospitalized.

Then should of had a lot more Cases in Hospital and Worse Then?

2. The older people are, the more likely they are to be in that bit more than half the population. Hence, as we know, COVID tends to kill older people.

That is True but Sadly a bad thing of getting Old more things can kill you and not just Covid

[stui magpie]

@Pies4shaw.

I'm not quoting your whole post, just a couple of points.

1. The death rate as a percentage of of infections does not support anything more than a tiny percentage of the population being predisposed to dying from Covid

2. In regard to the high at risk category, I have high blood pressure and I'm on 2 different medications for it. It used to be 3, but losing some weight and getting fitter dropped it back. Consequently I'm in the high risk category apparently, as I got early access to the vaccine 12 months ago.

So yes I'm an optimist. I'm also not scared of dying, it is the inevitable conclusion to life, but I would prefer it happens later rather than sooner

[Pies4shaw]

^ You might well be one of those people locking themselves down (whoever those people actually are), if you were pre-disposed to that manner of thinking.

[stui magpie]

Nah, no locking down happening here. I'm going to live forever or die in the attempt (Catch 22 reference) and enjoy the ride while it's open.

[think positive]

so whats the view on 4th boosters? i had my 3rd shot on 29th of december, so is it three months? 4?

[Dave The Man]

^ You might well be one of those people locking themselves down (whoever those people actually are), if you were pre-disposed to that manner of thinking.

Going by that then everyone in the world should be in Lockdown until Covid 100% Goes away

[Dave The Man]

so whats the view on 4th boosters? i had my 3rd shot on 29th of december, so is it three months? 4?

Get soon as Possible when need to get it.

Had on 8th of Jan so been about 2 Months so might need in next 2-3 Months

[stui magpie]

so whats the view on 4th boosters? i had my 3rd shot on 29th of december, so is it three months? 4?

I had mine mid December.

My thought is to get a 4th Booster next month at or around the same time as the flu shot. That should provide cover right through winter.

[Dave The Man]

so whats the view on 4th boosters? i had my 3rd shot on 29th of december, so is it three months? 4?

I had mine mid December.

My thought is to get a 4th Booster next month at or around the same time as the flu shot. That should provide cover right through winter.

Can you get the 4th Booster as Goverment has said nothing about it at the Moment

[Pies4shaw]

No deaths reported in Victoria today - for the first time since 20 December 2021. It's only 1 day but we can hope. (NSW also hovered at our around zero for a few days ending on 26 December 2021.)

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-23/ ... /100620708

The businessman who once spearheaded Australia's post-COVID task force and his son have both received suspended eight-month jail terms for breaching WA's strict border laws.

Neville Power admitted flying a helicopter into WA in October last year with his son Nicholas without having the necessary permission to enter the state.

The two men had come from their family's station near Mount Isa in north-west Queensland where they had been mustering cattle.

At the time Queensland was categorised as a low-risk state, meaning travellers to WA were required to quarantine for 14 days.

However, the men made no attempt to isolate when they landed at Exmouth, where they stayed at a resort for a night, and were recorded by CCTV cameras not wearing masks.