Australian federal election 2022

[David]

We’re only at most a few months away from the 2022 election (due no later than 21 May, and as early as February), and things as they stand seem pretty evenly poised: polls show a consistent slight lead to Labor, much as they did last time around, and, as in 2016, the Coalition only have a slight majority in the lower house.

It’s hard to believe, particularly after the many stuff-ups and leadership instability of the past decade, but the Coalition are on the brink of a dynasty: win this and, with another full term in power, Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison will have outlasted John Howard, and only just fall short of Hawke/Keating’s thirteen-year run in government (the second-longest in the country’s history). Morrison himself will quickly overtake Curtin, Keating, Chifley, Fisher and Deakin to be the 8th-longest serving prime minister in the country’s history, which is pretty remarkable considering he only became PM in the first place by accident.

As for Labor, they seem to have taken all the wrong lessons from 2019, when Shorten lost despite offering a somewhat forward-thinking platform after years of trying to be as invisible as possible. Albanese has taken Shorten's small-target strategy even further, while moving the party further right, to the extent that it is hard to detect any kind of alternative vision for the country at all. I don't think they deserve to win, and the idea of the uninspiring Albanese as prime minister honestly seems implausible to me; but nonetheless, it's entirely possible that people will be sufficiently tired of the incumbents to give him a chance. At this point I think it's slightly more likely that Morrison gets re-elected, but I don't feel confident enough to predict either way.

Things get interesting when it comes to the crossbench. We have roughly four forces here to take note of: the Greens, who will presumably pick up their usual 10% and hold on to eight or nine senate seats, but really seem to have stagnated as a political force (I suspect they do best under disappointing Labor governments); Clive Palmer's United Australia Party, which is flooding every available space with ads and squarely targeting the anti-vaxx/COVID-contrarian vote (which might be enough for a senate seat or two, but probably won't make much of a splash in the lower house); One Nation, who I suspect are going to lose a big chunk of their vote to the Palmer brigade and potentially Hanson's own senate seat; and, perhaps most notably, the collection of centrist independents running in lower-house seats under the loose Voices banner, many of which are challenging Liberal MPs and offering a pro-business, pro-climate policy agenda (as Zali Steggall and Helen Haines did successfully in the last election). It will be particularly interesting to see how the latter group fare; my suspicion is that they might win enough seats to force a hung parliament, which is probably Labor's best hope of taking power.

Here's an update on how things stand, for those wondering:

Lower house (150 seats in total): 76 Coalition, 68 ALP, 1 Greens, 1 UAP (Craig Kelly), 1 KAP (Bob Katter), 1 Centre Alliance (Rebekha Sharkie), 3 unaffiliated independents (Andrew Wilkie, Zali Steggall, Helen Haines)

Senate (76 seats in total): 36 Coalition, 26 ALP, 9 Greens, 2 One Nation, 1 Centre Alliance, 1 Jacqui Lambie, 1 Rex Patrick. Of those, the seats being defended this half-senate election are 19 Coalition, 15 ALP, 3 Greens, 1 One Nation, 1 Centre Alliance, 1 Rex Patrick

Some useful resources to keep an eye on for predictions and polling updates:
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Overview.htm?
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/1 ... eview.html
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/ ... ide1.shtml (check out that '90s web design!!!)

And a fun video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnzaiYrvvrw

[stui magpie]

I expect Morrison to win in a very tight result but that's more because of Albanese than anything positive Morrison has done. Shorten completely misread the room with his class warfare rhetoric last time but the only thing Albanese seems to stand for is he isn't Morrison.

Preferences from minor and fringe parties and independents will definitely shape the outcome if not decide it, people are increasingly abandoning the major parties. As usual it's the comparatively small percent of people who don't vote on party lines but vote on WIIFM that decide the result.

[Dave The Man]

Labor should win the next election easily

[stui magpie]

should isn't will. Lots of moving parts in this mess but if I was going to bet money on it, I'd put it on Morrison.

[think positive]

I expect Morrison to win in a very tight result but that's more because of Albanese than anything positive Morrison has done. Shorten completely misread the room with his class warfare rhetoric last time but the only thing Albanese seems to stand for is he isn't Morrison.

Preferences from minor and fringe parties and independents will definitely shape the outcome if not decide it, people are increasingly abandoning the major parties. As usual it's the comparatively small percent of people who don't vote on party lines but vote on WIIFM that decide the result.

Wife isn’t into damn Morrison?

[stui magpie]

I don't have a wife and if I did I'd divorce her if she was into damn Morrison (or Albanese for that matter).

WIIFM is Whats In It for Me.

[David]

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 59orf.html

[#26]

What do you folks think the fundamental differences between the ALP and Libs are?

[stui magpie]

What do you folks think the fundamental differences between the ALP and Libs are?

For me, the fundamental difference is that the Unions have a formal role to play within the ALP, the Libs have no such formal arrangements.

Traditionally the ALP has been more for big government and more interventionist than the Libs but practically these days there's far call difference between them. The only thing they stand for, both of them, is getting elected and staying there.

[Dave The Man]

[stui magpie]

^

Nah, bullshit Dave.

The only sheep are people who rust onto a political party without any critical thinking about what they are bringing to the table. Shorten lost the last election with his class warfare strategy, Albanese has noticeably backed right away from that and is talking about creating wealth for aspirational Australians rather than punishing them.

[David]

[David]

Government MPs seem to think it'll be happening on the 14th or 21st of May:

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/ma ... 118-p59p1v

[Dave The Man]

^

Nah, bullshit Dave.

The only sheep are people who rust onto a political party without any critical thinking about what they are bringing to the table. Shorten lost the last election with his class warfare strategy, Albanese has noticeably backed right away from that and is talking about creating wealth for aspirational Australians rather than punishing them.

and Scommo let the Media do his Work for him