Chinese imperialism and future Australian sovereignty

[roar]

All that needs to happen is to get Russia on side. If they will support a tougher stance against China, there is no WW3 but rather, China gets spanked and it has to pull its head in. Even if Russia simply stays on the sidelines, it's an easy fix. If Russia decide to support Russia, however, things will get ugly.

Will agree that a proper trade block could also work but it will be much slower and cause much pain for the Chinese population over a long period.

[pietillidie]

All that needs to happen is to get Russia on side. If they will support a tougher stance against China, there is no WW3 but rather, China gets spanked and it has to pull its head in. Even if Russia simply stays on the sidelines, it's an easy fix. If Russia decide to support Russia, however, things will get ugly.

Will agree that a proper trade block could also work but it will be much slower and cause much pain for the Chinese population over a long period.

What does this 'spanking' with new allies Russia look like? You do understand you're dealing with weapons of mass destruction and megalopolises, not a rural football match where one team can only field 12 players, gets 'spanked' by 172 points, and everyone goes and has a beer.

Your military spanking is imaginary given weaponry, population, economic and technological integration. It can't be dished out to North Korea, let alone China. The slightest whiff of it would crash world markets before anyone even begins to explain how it might work.

This is pre-Cold War talk, let alone twenty-first century talk.

[stui magpie]

Britain has hailed a new visa offering Hong Kong citizens a route to citizenship after China's crackdown on political opposition in the city, but Beijing says it will no longer recognise special British passports offered to residents of the former Crown colony.

Key points:
The UK says it is giving Hongkongers the chance to "make their home in our country"
China says the policy would turn Hongkongers into "second-class British citizens"
Beijing will stop recognising special British passports issued to some Hongkongers
Britain and China have been bickering for months about what London and Washington say is an attempt to silence dissent in Hong Kong, though Beijing says the West's views are clouded by misinformation and an imperial hangover.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-30/ ... s/13105130

China is clearly in expansionist mode, starting with Hong Kong and Taiwan. Absorbing capitalist territories close to it and anything within what it thinks it's territory is.

Trade sanctions alone won't stop it, nor will sabre rattling. The threat of force will only work against China if it believes we are willing to use it.

(by "We" I mean the US and whatever coalition can be bought together)

[pietillidie]

[roar]

If there is agreement amongst all the greater powers, then China will be faced with the option of a war against everybody except North Korea if it wishes to continue it's expansion (i.e. a war it will lose very quickly and lose a lot of face) or it can pull it's head in and resume to live as per the rest of the world's rules. The first option will also, no doubt, see them lose territory, which would hurt more than not gaining extra.

It's not ideal and people will lose their lives but I truly can't see another way. Trade blocks and economic sanctions could eventually work but there would also be great loss of life (in China, at least) and I don't believe it will stop them invading Taiwan and other areas. No sensible person wants a war but sometimes, when dealing with certain types, there isn't an effective alternative.

[stui magpie]

[pietillidie]

[David]

[pietillidie]

^Notice I usually use use the term 'TPP-like' or a phrase like 'a new TPP'. I don't mean the very same thing with the same sentiment or motivation, and certainty not called 'TPP'.

The balance of power has started to shift markedly from the days where everyone rubber stamped American interests, so I think that concern is becoming outdated. The old left view used to have a point (while quietly pocketing ANZUS guarantees), but in a multipolar world facing transnational crises, those concerns have dropped way down the list. Japan, South Korea, India and Southeast Asia provide an increasing counter-balance to the US in any such agreement.

The fear that you might get pushed around by the US, having just dusted off the stench of Iraq and Afghanistan, had billions wiped off your GDP by Trump, are getting the raw deal of much worse pandemic mismanagement in other economies, and are now getting pushed around by China, would seem to support the need for taking advantage of this new multilateral milieu. And the last thing you want is the US doing something even more idiotic in 'distant' Asia than Trump's trade war.

Unless Australia enjoys playing the victim, it ought to do something genuinely courageous about it. As I say, that's the real fight.

Biden's economic and trade team most definitely do have an appetite for such an approach. The problem is them dealing with the pandemic and Trump's wreckage first, and as ever a lunatic opposition. But the groundwork can start right now. Biden promised multilateralism, so he has a mandate to look at it. Moreover, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and others are already in a quasi-treaty with the US.

Sure, the devil is always in the detail, but as you infer there are treaties and there are treaties. These things can be ironed out. And no one is suggesting a union, which is quite a different level of integration altogether, like the highly contiguous and interdependent EU.

My fear is that people really are feckless cowards and Facebook dimwits, so a massive multilateral treaty is less exciting than skirmishes and tough talk, while motivated lunacy from the far left and far right opposing it with delusional notions of how economies work will dominate the airwaves. I agree with you the far right and oppositional right would have a field day, but that's part of the fight. As innate wreckers, they do that to anything worthwhile.

That said, if there's an alternative with more favourable politics, I'm by no means against it. I'm not up for making it harder than it needs to be; there's just no other option in sight. In fact, all indications suggest that unless you win these battles, the alternative is Brexit and Trump; chaos, wreckage, devaluation and decline with very little say on anything.

(On matters of economics, we can talk about that separately, but trade blocks it is for now).

[pietillidie]

[stui magpie]

The Chinese government's alleged actions in Xinjiang have violated every single provision in the United Nations' Genocide Convention, according to an independent report by more than 50 global experts in human rights, war crimes and international law.

The report, released Tuesday by the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy think tank in Washington DC, claimed the Chinese government "bears state responsibility for an ongoing genocide against the Uyghur in breach of the (UN) Genocide Convention."

yeah, but according to China they're the ones being picked on.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/09/asia ... index.html

[stui magpie]

The past few months has seen something of a stalemate in China's escalating trade sanctions against Australia. Things haven't improved at all, but at least they haven't deteriorated further.

Last year, barely a fortnight went by without China dishing out some form of additional punishment on all sorts of Australian goods from coal to barley, beef, wine, wheat, cotton, rock lobster, timber, sugar and copper concentrate.

China was remarkably frank about why it was targeting Australia, listing 14 grievances in a dossier handed to a Nine Network reporter in Canberra.

Australia refused to budge on any front and now it's about to test Beijing's temper once more. The Prime Minister will join his US, Japanese and Indian counterparts early Saturday morning Australian time for the first leader-level (virtual) meeting of what's known as the "Quad".

If calling for an inquiry into the origins of a global pandemic upset Beijing so much, one wonders how this will go down.

I expect it will go down like a wrought iron hang glider, but far kem

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-11/ ... p/13234080

[Pies4shaw]

The following is the thing our country can actually control and should be concerned about. This particular link concerns the currying of influence within the LNP but the issue is a more pervasive one, of course. We all know that China is a powerful global player. We can't do much about that but we can try to remain vigilant to ensure that our elected representatives - and their party machines - don't become captive to foreign interests that conflict with ours.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-12/ ... n/13234740

[stui magpie]

^

Yep. I would think any labor supporters should be following the advice about glass houses and stones in this case. The CCP aren't interested in party politics, they want to grow influence and will seek to do it anyway they can.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Yes, I think this is about the risk of corruption and influence - not party politics. I posted that story because it detailed ASIO's views in what I took to be a reasonably illuminating way, rather than because it concerned attempts to curry influence in the LNP.