Chinese imperialism and future Australian sovereignty

[David]

China just went seriously over the top, uttering explicit threats against Taiwan. Make no mistake, China intends war. They need to be smacked down hard when they cross the line - and cross the line they will.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-28/ ... r/13100738

Short of our own sabre-rattling, how can this be sensibly responded to, though? One hopes that cooler heads will prevail here.

[stui magpie]

Cooler heads?

China is relying on bullying and bluff to ensure it gets what it wants and I dare say all the smaller nations that owe it money to stay onside at any UN vote.

[David]

Sure, but I presume you don’t actually want WW3, right?

[stui magpie]

No, I don't, but I also don't think China should be allowed to just to take over Taiwan. So do we do nothing or push back and risk war?

I read recently someone compared China's behaviour at the moment to Germany just prior to WWII.

Their bullying of us with trade penalties is purpose designed to send a message to other nations, "don't mess with us" and it's all good to talk about cool heads but if there isn't anyone in China you can have a conversation with.......

[Pi]

^
Whenever you two post consecutively I get a subliminal message of 'Free Beer"

[stui magpie]

^



Thanks for the suggestion.

[stui magpie]

Reasonably good article explains all the various tension points.

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/au ... 56wnx.html

All will depend on how the US responds

[Tannin]

China just went seriously over the top, uttering explicit threats against Taiwan. Make no mistake, China intends war. They need to be smacked down hard when they cross the line - and cross the line they will.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-28/ ... r/13100738

Short of our own sabre-rattling, how can this be sensibly responded to, though? One hopes that cooler heads will prevail here.

There are only two ways to deal with this, David.

(1) Show your military strength and show that you are willing to use it if they step over the line in the sand. In this case. we make sure that they understand that if they attack Taiwan, they will be at war with Japan, the USA, Australia, India, and any other prepared to help.

(l) Let them have Taiwan. And Vietnam. And half of India. Then go to war, when you are much weaker and have already lost millions and millions of citizens and vast areas of land to the aggressor.

Appeasement was tried with the Nazis. You know how that worked out. Appeasing China is equally stupid. More stupid actually, as we have the Hitler example right there in front of us.

[Pi]

Xi who must not be blamed says its war..

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55851052

Probably a bluff, any actual shooting war would further trash China's already damaged image and economy; regardless of what the US does or does not do.

Taiwan's a real problem for China; a successful wealthy democracy run by Chinese people that has evolved into a separate country that doesn't want Winnie the Poo.

And then there's the India border situation...

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2021-01-25

Perhaps Xi who must not be blamed is just keeping lots of troops busy so they dont come after him.

[David]

[pietillidie]

^Ratcheting up dangerous military talk isn't the only 'tough' option. But because there is no proper coordination mechanism in place yet, such as a TPP-style agreement with agreed block-wide repercussions, all you will get for now is chest beating.

You cry to think at the years wasted by that moron who scuppered the TPP. The same moron who denied and dithered with the pandemic. The same moron who denied and dithered with climate change. The same moron who....

[Tannin]

*I also don’t think we should necessarily presume that Chinese ambitions regarding Taiwan indicate a more general expansionist policy. China views Taiwan as part of its territory; it has no such claims over India or Vietnam.

Oh dear. Someone hasn't been paying attention.

Ever heard of those shallow drifts of shifting sand in the water many, many miles away from China and very close to Vietnam and the Philippines? At low tide, some of those shallow spots poke up through the waves.

China has spent the last ten years building artificial islands there, and has loaded them up with air strips and military hardware of all kinds. These are international waters, and China's illegal military bases are (and were always intended to be) direct and highly visible threats to these smaller countries.

Yes, and Hitler only wanted to reestablish the traditional German rule over Hong Kong ... sorry ... I mean the Rhineland. Oh, and the rightfully German territory of Taiwan of course. (Sorry, I meant to say Austria.) We won't count Hitler's border dispute and war with India ... um ... Czechoslovakia. After all, he will probably stop when he has occupied the Ganges Plain ... er .. I mean the Sudetenland, which is all he is asking for. As we know, that "final" concession by the many smaller nations close by to Germany brought peace in our time. Oh, apart from the invasion of the rest of India, of course. Err ... did I say "India went under the jackboots"? Slip of the tongue, I meant Czechoslovakia. And six months later, there is the historically important and rightfully Chinese territory of Vietnam, which was part of China a thousand years ago. Woops, that would be Poland.

[David]

[Tannin]

Maritime boundaries are not, repeat not, adjusted by building artificial islands and basing warplanes on them. Not now, not ever.

There is nothing remotely "ambiguous" about it: it is military aggression, plain and simple.

China is not Germany, Taiwan is not Austria and India is not Czechoslovakia.

Nope. But exactly like Germany in 1938, China is an ambitious power, militarising rapidly, picking fights with everybody that doesn't knuckle under, and very keen to expand. It would be foolish in the extreme to repeat the same mistakes we made in 1938.

[pietillidie]

Mutual annihilation changes the game dramatically from the world wars. There's no small-scale military intervention against China that would work, and no larger-scale intervention that doesn't risk WW3 and mutual annihilation.

Look what peasant nation North Korea can achieve with its rust bucket rockets. If North Korea can work a stalemate with rockets pointed at Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo, it's pretty obvious what China can achieve. Macho talk over North Korea has always been just that, and this will be little different.

There's plainly only one solution here, and it involves a large trading block incentivising China to maintain its growth through reform. (That's not to say military deterrence and defence isn't important, just that it has no hope in hell of ultimately solving this problem).