Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

K · Post by K » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:33 pm

R1 H2H

BetEasy: Richmond 1.12 (6.75); Collingwood 1.60 (2.35); Melbourne 1.28 (3.70); Adelaide 1.34 (3.25);
Sydney 1.55 (2.45); West Coast 1.60 (2.35); St Kilda 1.28 (3.70); GWS 1.73 (2.10); NM 1.80 (2.02).

sportsbet: Richmond 1.11 (6.00); Collingwood 1.57 (2.30); Melbourne 1.30 (3.35); Adelaide 1.36 (3.00);
Sydney 1.54 (2.37); West Coast 1.55 (2.35); St Kilda 1.25 (3.70); GWS 1.73 (2.10); NM 1.78 (2.05).

TAB: Richmond 1.11 (7.00); Collingwood 1.55 (2.45); Melbourne 1.25 (4.00); Adelaide 1.32 (3.40);
Sydney 1.53 (2.50); West Coast 1.62 (2.30); St Kilda 1.25 (4.00); GWS 1.77 (2.05); NM 1.80 (2.00).

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:56 am

Tonight I've gone; Pies Head to Head @ $1.65, Pies by 39.5+ @ $5.50, 9-10 goals in 1st quarter @ $5.50 & Cox 1st goal scorer @ $21.

Go the PIES!

K · Post by K » Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:19 am

The bookies were very accurate with their (pre-game) line last night, but that must be a fluke.

Update: not so accurate with the next night's line.

K · Post by K » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:54 am

K wrote:R2 Line
BetEasy: Richmond (-7.5); ...

Their line has shrunk to Rich (-2.5). [H2H: Rich 1.81; Coll 1.97.]
Looks like people think more of the Rance injury than the Pies loss.

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:11 pm

Skids wrote:Tonight I've gone; Pies Head to Head @ $1.65, Pies by 39.5+ @ $5.50, 9-10 goals in 1st quarter @ $5.50 & Cox 1st goal scorer @ $21.

Go the PIES!

Ouch

K · Post by K » Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:19 pm

sb are advertising payout this round if your team leads at any change by 2 goals, which is of course 1pt more than the Pies' largest break lead.

I wonder what effect such an offer has on their profits...

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:03 am

K wrote:sb are advertising payout this round if your team leads at any change by 2 goals, which is of course 1pt more than the Pies' largest break lead.

I wonder what effect such an offer has on their profits...

Probably increases them!

They would have researched this and found that, what they payout, is more than compensated for in the increased traffic and their bank accounts.

It's like the Ladbrokes offer when they pay evens on Winx ($20 max) to win. They know that most punters are mugs and will quickly return that money.

If you're an astute punter and win often, the bookies either, ban you, or limit your stake size. I have only been able to place $5 on horses sometimes with Bet365.I don't use them at all anymore.

K · Post by K » Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:17 am

They know it'll help them make a long-term bigger profit (e.g. by luring you from rivals, getting you addicted, etc.), but whether it's a short-term loss ("investment") on their part ...

So far this round, it's cost them only the WC-Bris game. There've been two near misses (11 points). They've been helped by the low scores in most games.

K · Post by K » Mon Mar 25, 2019 5:52 am

R2 Line

BetEasy: Richmond (-2.5); Adelaide (-2.5); Essendon (-22.5); Port (-34.5); West Coast (-17.5);
Geelong (-10.5); NM (-5.5); Hawthorn (-15.5); Freo (-33.5).

sportsbet: Richmond (-2.5); Adelaide (-0.5); Essendon (-24.5); Port (-31.5); West Coast (-16.5);
Geelong (-10.5); NM (-8.5); Hawthorn (-14.5); Freo (-32.5).

R2 H2H

BetEasy: Richmond 1.81 (1.97); Adelaide 1.78 (2.00); Essendon 1.30 (3.50); Port 1.18 (4.60); West Coast 1.38 (3.00); Geelong 1.50 (2.50); NM 1.71 (2.10); Hawthorn 1.48 (2.60); Freo 1.15 (5.25).

sportsbet: Richmond 1.77 (1.97); Adelaide 1.89 (1.91); Essendon 1.25 (3.70); Port 1.17 (4.65); West Coast 1.37 (2.92); Geelong 1.50 (2.50); NM 1.66 (2.13); Hawthorn 1.43 (2.83); Freo 1.14 (5.20).

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:21 am

How NM are favourites to beat the Lions is amazing. I'll be jumping on that (Lions)!
West Coast are way unders, I'll be taking GWS @ the line there. Freo are way unders also, GC are worth a nibble at the line.

Multi for me round 2;

GWS +16.5 ($1.90) into GC +27.5 ($1.90) into BL H2H ($2) = $7.97 (Odds Boost with Ladbrokes) x $50 = $398.50.... or $50 for them

K · Post by K » Mon Mar 25, 2019 12:28 pm

So why Ladbrokes, Skids?

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Mon Mar 25, 2019 1:15 pm

I prefer their website and the 'Boosts' available.
They also provide a Ladbrokes card (visa), where you can instantly transfer winnings and either get to an ATM and make a withdrawal or, use as a normal debit card. This is a very handy feature, especially after some nice wins and too many brews!

I'm up at work at the minute, had some nice collects on the pony's on Saturday. I transferred money to the card, which is at home and got Kelly to pay a few Bill's, fill the car and do a bit of grocery shopping.
Without the card option, I probably would have put silly multis on the NBA or some other stupid bets.

I also have SB, Beteasy and a WATAB account. Don't use Bet365 since they limited my bet size.

K · Post by K » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:41 am

With teams in, BetEasy now has Coll-Rich 50:50 H2H.
So do sb & Ladbrokes, but they still have a line (Rich -0.5).
And TAB too (with an unequal line: Rich -2.5 $2; Coll +2.5 $1.80).

K · Post by K » Fri Mar 29, 2019 5:52 am

R2 Line

BetEasy: Rich/Coll (0); Sydney (-3.5); Essendon (-19.5); Port (-33.5); West Coast (-17.5);
Geelong (-9.5); NM (-1.5); Hawthorn (-18.5); Freo (-23.5).

sportsbet: Richmond (-0.5); Sydney (-4.5); Essendon (-20.5); Port (-34.5); West Coast (-17.5);
Geelong (-8.5); NM (-1.5); Hawthorn (-19.5); Freo (-24.5).

TAB: Richmond (-2.5); Sydney (-2.5); Essendon (-20.5); Port (-32.5); West Coast (-17.5);
Geelong (-8.5); NM (-1.5); Hawthorn (-19.5); Freo (-21.5).

R2 H2H

BetEasy: Rich/Coll 1.90 (1.90); Sydney 1.80 (2.02); Essendon 1.35 (3.20); Port 1.18 (4.90); West Coast 1.42 (2.90);
Geelong 1.60 (2.35); NM 1.85 (1.95); Hawthorn 1.39 (3.00); Freo 1.29 (3.60).

sportsbet: Rich/Coll 1.90 (1.90); Sydney 1.65 (2.15); Essendon 1.28 (3.45); Port 1.15 (5.00); West Coast 1.40 (2.80);
Geelong 1.58 (2.29); NM 1.85 (1.95); Hawthorn 1.33 (3.18 ); Freo 1.25 (3.70).

TAB: Rich/Coll 1.90 (1.90); Sydney 1.80 (2.05); Essendon 1.36 (3.30); Port 1.18 (5.20); West Coast 1.40 (3.10);
Geelong 1.62 (2.35); NM/Bris 1.92 (1.92); Hawthorn 1.38 (3.20); Freo 1.32 (3.50).

ronrat · Post by **ronrat** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:14 am

Rod Stewarts old man got banned by a pommy mob because he had one of those have to pick 10 winners sort of a bet at a few thousand to to one. Rod told all the audiences at the next 10 or so concerts and they tried to stop him but legal advice was that the truth prevails. In the end they reckon it cost them potentially a few hundred thousand customers. Victab still have my money but I can't bet because "you are betting from overseas" and they won't give me my winnings unless I appear in person. When I do it won't be pretty.

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Top 4 predictions (betting thread)