Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

[K]

Looks like in VFL/AFL history the premier has come from outside the top 3 at the end of H&A only 10 times.

But one year, the wooden spooners ended up winning the premiership.

[TaylorMade]

^
was one of those teams Brisbane Lions? Its very similar in NBA, over 96% of the time the winner has come from the top3 in their respective division.

[K]

One of which teams? The 10 premiers from 4 or lower?
No. Brisbane finished 2, 2, 3, 2 in the years 2001-4.
They sort of got lucky; they had Port to act as their decoy for a lot of the time. Maybe that helped reduce the focus on them.

Now I want to win the spoon and premiership in the same year. It's the ultimate comeback story.

[TaylorMade]

Yeah i meant from the 10 premiers. I thought one year they finished 4th and won the flag. My mistake

[K]

Under the current finals system, there's little difference between 3rd and 4th. It all depends on who is 1st and 2nd. Previous finals systems were not like that.

Adelaide got lucky in one of their premiership years (both really but one more than the other). They finished low and still were able to lose a final without going out. ...
This was 1998. 10th after round 12. 5th after round 22. Beaten by 48 points by (4th-placed) Melbourne in the qualifying final.
The previous year, they were 4th after H&A. So were WC in 1992. You have to go back to the 60s for the previous case.

[K]

Collingwood H&A finishes:

1st: 19 times
2nd: 21 times
3rd: 17 times
4th: 17 times
5th: 10 times
6th: 6 times
7th: 7 times
8th: 5 times


Carlton H&A finishes:

1st: 17 times
2nd: 18 times
3rd: 15 times
4th: 10 times
5th: 13 times
6th: 10 times
7th: 14 times
8th: 7 times

[E]

The last 2 times we won the flag, we also finished 1st on the ladder.

Finishing top 2 gives you the best chance of winning one.

Top 4 is the bar these days. If you are a good enough team to win the flag, there is no difference in likelihood, so long as you are top 4.

The reason most of the premiers come from the top 2 is because the ladder is a reflection of the best performed teams over a 22 week season (which means the better teams are usually higher on the ladder). Some teams improve over a season and so their early season form might result in them being lower, and some teams have injuries, tough draws, form lapses, etc that put them lower on the ladder than they should be, but as a general rule, the higher placed teams will be better and therefore have better chance to win just because of that.

[K]

Essendon H&A finishes:

1st: 17 times
2nd: 10 times
3rd: 6 times
4th: 20 times
5th: 7 times
6th: 16 times
7th: 5 times
8th: 17 times

Richmond H&A finishes:

1st: 9 times
2nd: 9 times
3rd: 9 times
4th: 9 times
5th: 9 times
6th: 10 times
7th: 9 times
8th: 9 times

[K]

The [TAB] handicaps are:
Ade +6, Bris +14, Carl +32, Coll +4, Ess +6, Fre +20, Geel +8, Haw +10, NM +10, Mel +2, Port +14, Rich +0, StK +24, Syd +10, WC +4, WB +20, GC +48, GWS +10

...
Its an interesting little bet you found K, im feeling Bullish about the Pies, I think TAB is the way to go at 15-1.

Woo. A change already. All still at 15.00 (& handicaps the same), except Rich, which is now 12.00. Maybe someone loaded up on Rich (the fool ).

[Skids]

Oh, they adjust the handicap too?
They don't do that for the H2H line. They just predict the margin, offer 1.92 or something either way, and that's it.

You will find the margin quoted alters though. Again if there was a heap of money for the Pies v GC at the line and it opened at -34.... that line would move out to - 42, or whatever. They constantly watch the weight of money and alter the odds/margins accordingly.

Look at the PIES v Cats round 1 game.
SB have a line payout of $1.90 Pies are -8.5, Cats are +8.5.
Have a look at that on game day, it will have changed. Imagine if Grundy, Treloar, Cox & JDG are out of that round 1 team! People would be throwing $$$ at the Cats at the line... the line would change.

The line has moved (Pies -6.5 - Cats +6.5) ... I'd suggest this is due to Adams already being ruled out of the match.

[K]

...
PIES v Cats round 1 game.
SB have a line payout of $1.90 Pies are -8.5, Cats are +8.5.
...

The line has moved (Pies -6.5 - Cats +6.5) ... I'd suggest this is due to Adams already being ruled out of the match.

I didn't catch the other bookies' previous lines, but currently...
BetEasy Pies -7.5 ($1.90)
TAB Pies -9.5
Ladbrokes Pies -9.5
bet365 Pies -9.5

Let's see what they are just before the bounce.

On the season handicap market, it's a bit early, but it looks like they're going to change the payouts but keep the handicaps fixed. (They could choose to change either or both.)

[K]

...
Thanks very much K and Skids.

Looking over the TAB handicaps, ...

I might get on, the prediction and hope for me is that we become a run-away train, while the rest of the comp 2-12 is fairly even

TM, sportsbet now has a handicap market (don't know when it appeared):

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/au ... er-4547717

Richmond (+0) $15
Melbourne (+4) $10
West Coast (+4) $15
Collingwood (+6) $11
Adelaide (+8 ) $13
Essendon (+12) $13
Geelong (+12) $15
Greater Western Sydney (+12) $15
Sydney (+14) $15
Port Adelaide (+14) $21
North Melbourne (+16) $13
Hawthorn (+18 ) $19
Western Bulldogs (+20) $14
Brisbane (+24) $15
Fremantle (+24) $13
St Kilda (+28 ) $12
Carlton (+32) $12
Gold Coast (+44) $9

Their handicaps are pretty similar to BetEasy's (and the others). Their odds are different for each team (as with BetEasy). e.g. Coll. $11.00, Melb. $10.00, GC $9.00. Maybe punters think GC have been given too much handicap boost.

Season handicap:
TAB at $15 == 17% margin
BetEasy == 27% margin
Ladbrokes at $11 == 39% margin

sportsbet == 26% margin


* Edited to include odds

[TaylorMade]

Thanks for the info K, much appreciated. Im not to confident with Hawthorn at +18. I mean im fairly confident that we can be a 4 game better team than Hawthorn but im not overly confident that we should be ignoring them just because they lost Mitchell.

With TAB (Coll+4 , Haw+10. ) Game and a half advantage Coll 15-1
Sportsbet ( Coll+6 , Haw+18. ) 3 game advantage Coll 11-1

[K]

Oh, that is quite a big difference you've spotted, TM. TAB gives them only +10.

[TaylorMade]

Hawthorn is very hard to read at the moment.