Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

[K]

Doing what, Botty? This is supposed to be a family-friendly bulletin board.

[K]

BetEasy has a handicap market, but they're doing it differently from TAB & Ladbroke: they've different odds for every club, so they're not trying to make each bet equal.

Richmond - Scratch 17.00
West Coast +4.0 15.00
Melbourne +4.0 13.00
Collingwood +6.0 12.00
Adelaide +8.0 10.00
Essendon +10.0 15.00
GWS +10.0 11.00
Geelong +10.0 14.00
Sydney +12.0 17.00
Port Adelaide +14.0 17.00
Hawthorn +16.0 19.00
North Melbourne +18.0 10.00
Western Bulldogs +20.0 13.00
Brisbane +22.0 12.00
Fremantle +24.0 13.00
St Kilda +26.0 14.00
Carlton +30.0 12.00
Gold Coast +46.0 10.00


Like TAB & Ladbrokes, they have Rich. off scratch and GC +46, but GC is paying only $10. Haw +16 pays $19.

[TaylorMade]

BetEasy has a handicap market, but they're doing it differently from TAB & Ladbroke: they've different odds for every club, so they're not trying to make each bet equal.

Richmond - Scratch 17.00
West Coast +4.0 15.00
Melbourne +4.0 13.00
Collingwood +6.0 12.00
Adelaide +8.0 10.00
Essendon +10.0 15.00
GWS +10.0 11.00
Geelong +10.0 14.00
Sydney +12.0 17.00
Port Adelaide +14.0 17.00
Hawthorn +16.0 19.00
North Melbourne +18.0 10.00
Western Bulldogs +20.0 13.00
Brisbane +22.0 12.00
Fremantle +24.0 13.00
St Kilda +26.0 14.00
Carlton +30.0 12.00
Gold Coast +46.0 10.00


Like TAB & Ladbrokes, they have Rich. off scratch and GC +46, but GC is paying only $10. Haw +16 pays $19.

Its an interesting little bet you found K, im feeling Bullish about the Pies, I think TAB is the way to go at 15-1.

[TaylorMade]

^
Im not sure if i should play it now, or wait and see if Melbourne and Richmond become even less so we have more of an advantage.

How much does Tom Mitchell weaken Hawthorn? Is he a 2 and a half game differnce compared with us? They still have the best coach going around? Plus Wingard and Scully.

[Skids]

^
Im not sure if i should play it now, or wait and see if Melbourne and Richmond become even less so we have more of an advantage.

How much does Tom Mitchell weaken Hawthorn? Is he a 2 and a half game differnce compared with us? They still have the best coach going around? Plus Wingard and Scully.

The odds will change accordingly.

[K]

...
Its an interesting little bet you found K, im feeling Bullish about the Pies, I think TAB is the way to go at 15-1.

I'll take a look at the three (so far) side by side and post more later...

The BetEasy margin is about 38% (so about halfway between the other two).

[K]

So TAB's ladder prediction is:
Rich
Melb
Coll/WC
Ess/Ade
Geel
Haw/NM/Syd/GWS
Bris/Port
Freo/WB
StK
Carl
GC
...

Ladbroke's:
Rich
Coll/WC
Melb
Ess
Ade/GWS
Geel/Syd
Port
Haw/NM
Bris/Freo/WB
StK
Carl
GC

BetEasy:
Rich
WC/Melb
Coll
Ade
Ess/GWS/Geel
Syd
Port
Haw
NM
WB
Bris
Freo
StK
Carl
GC

[K]

... Its an interesting little bet you found K...

... The BetEasy margin is ... about halfway between the other two...

TM, the margins quoted before aren't totally accurate. (The betting site that gave margin info is inaccurate for huge margins.) Here are the accurate margins:

H2H line at $1.90 == 5% margin

Season handicap:
TAB at $15 == 17% margin
BetEasy == 27% margin
Ladbrokes at $11 == 39% margin


Ladbrokes at almost 40% still makes me go , so if you like this type of bet and are okay knowing that TAB will make about a 20% profit from it, then it's probably better to go with TAB.

Remember, though, this is not a 2- or 3-horse race. It's an 18-horse race. They try to set the handicaps so all of the 18 are equally likely (or look equally likely) to win. So really it's not about comparing with just Rich or Melb. It's about which team is going to exceed expectations the most. e.g. are we really confident the Pies will score 20+ points more than the Saints?

For sure there's extra risk for the bookies, which sort of justifies higher margins, but the punters share that same extra risk. The extra risk is that the bookies can predict R1 H2H much better than a whole season, but the punters are in the same position. The extra risk isn't actually benefiting the punters.

[OffSeasonSpecialist]

Adelaide
Melbourne
GWS
Geelong

[TaylorMade]

... Its an interesting little bet you found K...

... The BetEasy margin is ... about halfway between the other two...

TM, the margins quoted before aren't totally accurate. (The betting site that gave margin info is inaccurate for huge margins.) Here are the accurate margins:

H2H line at $1.90 == 5% margin

Season handicap:
TAB at $15 == 17% margin
BetEasy == 27% margin
Ladbrokes at $11 == 39% margin


Ladbrokes at almost 40% still makes me go , so if you like this type of bet and are okay knowing that TAB will make about a 20% profit from it, then it's probably better to go with TAB.

Remember, though, this is not a 2- or 3-horse race. It's an 18-horse race. They try to set the handicaps so all of the 18 are equally likely (or look equally likely) to win. So really it's not about comparing with just Rich or Melb. It's about which team is going to exceed expectations the most. e.g. are we really confident the Pies will score 20+ points more than the Saints?

For sure there's extra risk for the bookies, which sort of justifies higher margins, but the punters share that same extra risk. The extra risk is that the bookies can predict R1 H2H much better than a whole season, but the punters are in the same position. The extra risk isn't actually benefiting the punters.

Thanks very much K and Skids.

Looking over the TAB handicaps, the one that stands out the most is Fremantle at +20 ( +16 more than us ). I still think we are at least 4 games better than them. I know Ross Lyon is very defensive and may not like the 6-6-6. But they did pick up a lot of handy players. Hogan, Lobb, some Richmond boys and that guy from Essendon who is quite skilled.

I was concerned also with the +10 Hawthorn had over us at Ladbrokes but with TAB its only +6 more than Collingwood, which i like.

I might get on, the prediction and hope for me is that we become a run-away train, while the rest of the comp 2-12 is fairly even

[K]

My gut says the Pies may be a better shot at the real premiership than the minor premiership. Most times in the past, our guys haven't done the flat-track bully thing very well.

Some trivia: in 2012, GC was (+48 ) handicap with TAB, almost exactly like now... but GWS was (+74). Pies were at scratch.

[TaylorMade]

My gut says the Pies may be a better shot at the real premiership than the minor premiership. Most times in the past, our guys haven't done the flat-track bully thing very well.

I think we turned the corner last year, finishing 3rd after loosing the first 2 games was a very good achievment. The boys will know to give themselves a good chance of winning a flag, they will need home finals and less travel.

We are a very professional team with a lot of leaders, I think we will be best prepared for the season than other teams.

What ive learned about Collingwood, is that we like playing in GF's, but they dont seem to be a Cakewalk at all...

[TaylorMade]

^
In saying that, I'd rather we finish 8th and win the flag rather than finish 1st but fall short of the main goal.

As an outsider looking in and making observations about other teams as well, IMO we look primed to dominate the (season) ahead. What happens after that in the finals, Nobody knows.

Come finals time, on any given day we might be struck with 4 injuries ( on gameday ) leaving us with no bench. Things like that can happen to anyone and one bad day can cost you a seasons hard work. If it were to happen to us during the season then its just a 1/22 bad day you can cross off the list.

[TaylorMade]

In 2011 with a minor injury list, if it wasnt for the umpires cheating Pendlebury of his rightful game winning goal against Geelong, we would have been 21-0 going into the last round. I happened to be at that game that we lost by 98 points. I imagine it would have been a very different result that night if the umpires did not screw us earlier in the season. ( The umpires admitted fault )

2010 was very similar to 2018, In that we started becoming a monster in the second half of the season. That dominance continued all the way threw 2011 when we should have been 22-0.

[K]

It'll be interesting to see how much the handicaps & odds change in the next few weeks.