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Tannin
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Post by Tannin »

David wrote:Trump taking advice from Putin wouldn't actually be such a bad idea right now. Hell, Trump taking advice from the crazy guy at the bus stop would probably be a slight improvement on the current situation.
Sigh. You are right. Well, right so far as the crazy guy at the bus stop goes.

But Putin is a snake. Putin is probably the biggest single threat to world peace today, or anytime this decade. (Vastly more dangerous than bit-part players like Kim Jong-il.)

And I didn't suggest taking advice, I suggested taking orders. With the blackmail evidence Putin undoubtedly holds on Trump already, if he says "jump" Trump will have no choice but to act the frog. (Shouldn't be too hard for him: he is a toad already.)
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Post by David »

"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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Post by Tannin »

Balls. Putin is out for what he can get. The only reason he hasn't got his grubby hands all over North Korea is that China thought of it first. Putin bears a lot of responsibility for numerous disasters around the world, including the entire Syria/Middle-East shocker (which in turn led to civil unrest and extremism in Europe, not ignoring Brexit); the horrorshow that is Crimea; and the unexploded bomb with the orange hair.
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Post by David »

^ No question about his culpability in Syria. One of the most disgusting ongoing war crimes of the 21st century, that.
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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Post by Mugwump »

Putin is a nasty piece of work, but it seems a qualification for successfully running Russia, a country with a complex, proud and painful history which we should understand far better. While Putin's domestic politics are little better than mafia, his foreign policy reflects a fairly natural backlash against the triumphalist provocations of Germany (Russia's historic enemy) and the USA after the Cold War.

If you adopt Russia's perspective on history, the attempt to destabilize and annex the ultra-strategic Ukraine to German and US interests is completely and understandably intolerable, a final humiliation which Putin was bound to resist.

His attempt to maintain Russian influence in the Middle East via Assad, given the over reliance on oil in his economy and its price collapse, is similarly highly logical. Is it moral ? Of course not, but statecraft is about power and interests, and he is at least predictable in his pursuit of those. As long as we stop provoking and humiliating Russia's pride, Putin is both containable and far, far less dangerous than a cruel, extortionist state that loves hostage-taking and brinksmanship, and now has nuclear weapons.
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Post by David »

There is a de-escalation strategy available. Unfortunately, the US rejects it.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 502966370/

All the US can do is talk about more sanctions and more aggression. What if they used the existing sanctions as leverage, offering some economic relief if North Korea puts a halt to its nuclear program? What if the North Korean administration has other aims than causing a nuclear showdown? What would happen if Western powers put the macho "we don't negotiate with terrorists" rhetoric to one side and actually found a way to resolve this situation peacefully?

Before anyone wheels out the Neville Chamberlain analogies, North Korea isn't in a position to invade anyone. Things can't actually get much worse than they are at this point, short of an actual military confrontation. It's time to negotiate.
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
Wokko
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Post by Wokko »

Tried that. Got worse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fac ... 3e816c36c1

Like 1930s Britain, the USA had to learn that appeasement doesn't work.
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Post by Pi »

^
(edit, referring to Davids post)

that's not entirely true, the stated aim of the North Korean regime is the re-unification of Korea under the control of the North Korean government. That's why there hasn't been a peace treaty and probably wont be.

http://www.icks.org/data/ijks/1482461379_add_file_3.pdf

The escalation of missile tests and nuclear tests follows a similar pattern every time there is a new US president.

The most likely scenario for regime change and a denuclearized North Korea is under the control of the Chinese because its mostly in their interest to do so.
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Post by stui magpie »

Just a few fun facts in case shit gets real.

Apparently a nuclear armed ICBM launched from NK could hit Sydney in 30 minutes.

Think about that. 30 minutes.

An ICBM has a top speed of around 6-7km/s. That's 6-7 kilometres per second. 21,600kmh

By way of comparison:

Speed of sound - 1234kmh
.303 bullet - 2786 kmh
THAAD missiles (What Japan would be relying on to shoot the ICBM's down) 10,000 kmh.

If lil Kim pushes the button and Sydney wins the lottery, assuming news gets broadcast within 5 minutes, if you're in Sydney you're screwed. 25 minutes you'd be lucky to travel 6 blocks in Sydney traffic, so may as well stay home, grab a beer and watch the fireworks.

As far as Japan and it's THAAD system, if you were manning the defence you'd have a sphincter a knitting needle couldn't penetrate.

If NK lobs one at Tokyo, from the time they push the button you've got less than 4 minutes to get notified, crank up the THAAD launcher and try to hit one missile with another one travelling half the speed. That's like trying to knock an arrow out of the sky by throwing a rock at it. Good luck fellas
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Post by Mugwump »

David wrote:There is a de-escalation strategy available. Unfortunately, the US rejects it.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 502966370/

All the US can do is talk about more sanctions and more aggression. What if they used the existing sanctions as leverage, offering some economic relief if North Korea puts a halt to its nuclear program? What if the North Korean administration has other aims than causing a nuclear showdown? What would happen if Western powers put the macho "we don't negotiate with terrorists" rhetoric to one side and actually found a way to resolve this situation peacefully?

Before anyone wheels out the Neville Chamberlain analogies, North Korea isn't in a position to invade anyone. Things can't actually get much worse than they are at this point, short of an actual military confrontation. It's time to negotiate.
China's implied demand that the US cease military cooperation with its ally more or less proves that what we have here is a great power stand-off, with the Chinese using a proxy state to suppress the interests of the US in the region and separate the US from its South Korean ally. So far, so predictable. Last time I looked it was not the US actively threatening to use nuclear weapons or firing missiles over the territory of peaceable nations. It was North Korea. How you manage to make all that the US's fault and place the onus on the US to resolve it through niceness is beyond me.

On a second note, the entire point of sanctions is that they are imposed, or eased, in response to certain actions. These would readily be eased in NK started to denuclearise. You seem to be advocating unilateral easing, or failing to understand the very nature of sanctions. Good luck with that strategy. I am 99% sure it wil do nothing to alter NK's pursuit of the ultimate WMD.

We should not demonise China ; it is a rational power with valid interests, and little history of military imperialism. These things are to its credit. But all great powers are hegemonic, and China is a dictatorship with few cosy liberal principles. A world under Chinese hegemony is not one to be welcomed. North Korea is part of its power game.
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Post by Pies4shaw »

I never liked Sydney much.
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Post by swoop42 »

stui magpie wrote:Just a few fun facts in case shit gets real.

Apparently a nuclear armed ICBM launched from NK could hit Sydney in 30 minutes.

Think about that. 30 minutes.

An ICBM has a top speed of around 6-7km/s. That's 6-7 kilometres per second. 21,600kmh

By way of comparison:

Speed of sound - 1234kmh
.303 bullet - 2786 kmh
THAAD missiles (What Japan would be relying on to shoot the ICBM's down) 10,000 kmh.

If lil Kim pushes the button and Sydney wins the lottery, assuming news gets broadcast within 5 minutes, if you're in Sydney you're screwed. 25 minutes you'd be lucky to travel 6 blocks in Sydney traffic, so may as well stay home, grab a beer and watch the fireworks.

As far as Japan and it's THAAD system, if you were manning the defence you'd have a sphincter a knitting needle couldn't penetrate.

If NK lobs one at Tokyo, from the time they push the button you've got less than 4 minutes to get notified, crank up the THAAD launcher and try to hit one missile with another one travelling half the speed. That's like trying to knock an arrow out of the sky by throwing a rock at it. Good luck fellas
By all reports North Korea don't yet have the capability to hit Sydney.

If they do they'll surely use the enormous head of Kyle Sandilands as a target.
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Post by David »

Mugwump wrote:
David wrote:There is a de-escalation strategy available. Unfortunately, the US rejects it.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 502966370/

All the US can do is talk about more sanctions and more aggression. What if they used the existing sanctions as leverage, offering some economic relief if North Korea puts a halt to its nuclear program? What if the North Korean administration has other aims than causing a nuclear showdown? What would happen if Western powers put the macho "we don't negotiate with terrorists" rhetoric to one side and actually found a way to resolve this situation peacefully?

Before anyone wheels out the Neville Chamberlain analogies, North Korea isn't in a position to invade anyone. Things can't actually get much worse than they are at this point, short of an actual military confrontation. It's time to negotiate.
China's implied demand that the US cease military cooperation with its ally more or less proves that what we have here is a great power stand-off, with the Chinese using a proxy state to suppress the interests of the US in the region and separate the US from its South Korean ally. So far, so predictable. Last time I looked it was not the US actively threatening to use nuclear weapons or firing missiles over the territory of peaceable nations. It was North Korea. How you manage to make all that the US's fault and place the onus on the US to resolve it through niceness is beyond me.

On a second note, the entire point of sanctions is that they are imposed, or eased, in response to certain actions. These would readily be eased in NK started to denuclearise. You seem to be advocating unilateral easing, or failing to understand the very nature of sanctions. Good luck with that strategy. I am 99% sure it wil do nothing to alter NK's pursuit of the ultimate WMD.

We should not demonise China ; it is a rational power with valid interests, and little history of military imperialism. These things are to its credit. But all great powers are hegemonic, and China is a dictatorship with few cosy liberal principles. A world under Chinese hegemony is not one to be welcomed. North Korea is part of its power game.
On the contrary, I think we readily overlook the US's belligerence in the region. These shows of joint military strength that China is suggesting be put on hiatus have been apparently happening annually for 45 years, long before North Korea was any major threat to the world. South Korea, too, as much as it has become a vastly more modern, liberal and tolerable place to live since it threw off its own right-wing dictatorship, also refuses to recognise North Korea's sovereignty and retains an official position of taking the North back for itself. And of course there's the inconvenient history of the US and its allies killing over a million North Korean civilians and destroying much of Pyongyang during the Korean War.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Pyongyang

Painting just one side as the aggressors is an oversimplification. North Korea may be run by lunatics, but they are lunatics with at least some legitimate grievances and a not-altogether-unjustified desire for self-protection. If the US continues to ignore that and keeps on escalating tensions, then the range of diplomatic solutions will continue to shrink.

I'm not saying that only the US have responsibility here, by the way. But they are our allies, and we can, perhaps, encourage them to behave reasonably and talk them back from the brink of conflict. With North Korea, by now I think the approach can only start and end with harm minimisation. Putting pressure on China may be an option, but I fear that they have little more control over the situation than we do, however much they may have once had.
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
Wokko
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Post by Wokko »

"At dawn on Sunday, 25 June 1950, the Korean People's Army crossed the 38th parallel behind artillery fire."

Do you blame Poland for starting World War 2?
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Post by Mugwump »

^ You beat me to it, Wokko.

Those naughty Americans were at it again, providing the muscle and lives (under UN Mandate) to protect the country that was invaded and which ultimately became a beacon of economic development and vigorous democracy in the region. Cf China's history in that conflict and the child it spawned. It feels again like the Cold War, where the liberals all lined up to justify the USSR and condemn America. Only those who have lived under a flesh-eating dictatorship seem to certainly understand the evil such states represent (though NK, a gangster state, is way more dangerous than the stultifying and mendacious USSR). Attack your friends and allies, and extenuate the really nasty regimes. Very strange.
Last edited by Mugwump on Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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