North Korea

[Mugwump]

China is historically good at playing the deep game, Japan is only brash in comparison but Japan has also placed a higher value on pride and honour.

I don't think Japan will fear China but the whole area should fear a pissed off Japan.

Why ? Last time I looked Japan had been almost totally demilitarized by an America that wanted dominance in the Pacific and got it after WW2 (effectively, after Midway). This is an old policy which the the Americans should now be reversing, pronto, as part of a strategy of counterbalancing China's aggressive ambitions in the region.

[Skids]

Well I'm guna call Chuck Norris to &%%& 'em all over

[swoop42]

Just be hopeful it isn't a distant relative of Travis Cloke in charge of aiming those f***ers.

[Mugwump]

Just be hopeful it isn't a distant relative of Travis Cloke in charge of aiming those f***ers.

It could be the Korean branch of the family. They were aiming for Tokyo.

[pietillidie]

China is historically good at playing the deep game, Japan is only brash in comparison but Japan has also placed a higher value on pride and honour.

I don't think Japan will fear China but the whole area should fear a pissed off Japan.

Why ? Last time I looked Japan had been almost totally demilitarized by an America that wanted dominance in the Pacific and got it after WW2 (effectively, after Midway). This is an old policy which the the Americans should now be reversing, pronto, as part of a strategy of counterbalancing China's aggressive ambitions in the region.

Most players in the region concerned have a very different window on Japan, believing it to be completely untested, and a harbour for plenty of dangerous old ideas. While I think both naive and hyper-cynical views of Japan are misguided, the real issue here is that increasing Japan's military capabilities will contribute nothing but more instability.

China is already amply counterbalanced by the monstrous military might of the US and allies, even if our ugliest self-entitleds think others should bow graciously at whim.

The greatest threat to Asia by miles isn't an imbalance of military power, it's a decline in enthusiasm for the long game of positive-sum liberal development.

No nation is right or righteous in this game, so the matter isn't about who can be trusted or who deserves what. The focus has to be on ensuring that the region remains fully aware that conflict is not worth pursuing, authoritarian control is ultimately impossible, and a positive-sum game is all anyone can hang their hat on. (One would also hope this is easier to grasp in a context where serious war means global decimation, which is already clearly the case).

The idea that China is on some fixed tyrannical course bound for all-or-nothing conflict is anathema to pursuing this long-term, positive-sum game. It is also misleading given China's incredible recent history of reform and development. Like every powerful nation, China has its dangerous imperialism that needs to be guarded against; however, it still needs long-term, liberal economic reform to succeed as a nation. So, there are decades of ups and downs left to endure in this game without succumbing to overreaction.

Contrasting China with Russia might be instructive. Russian power is being held together by an archetypal Russian strong man fortuitously managing enormous fossil fuels reserves both within and around Russia. This is working in Russia for now, but something that flimsy and centralised will never, ever sustain a China. A much more liberal arrangement is clearly necessary for the country's success, even if that arrangement takes another half a century to unfold.

This is a long game which has already seen astonishing strides. Unfortunately, Anglo-American populism gets its energy from illiberal, negative-sum panic, and that is finding its way into international policy. Hopefully, though, that will pass when it's once again realised that people in glass houses damage themselves when they throw stones.

[stui magpie]

China is historically good at playing the deep game, Japan is only brash in comparison but Japan has also placed a higher value on pride and honour.

I don't think Japan will fear China but the whole area should fear a pissed off Japan.

Why ? Last time I looked Japan had been almost totally demilitarized by an America that wanted dominance in the Pacific and got it after WW2 (effectively, after Midway). This is an old policy which the the Americans should now be reversing, pronto, as part of a strategy of counterbalancing China's aggressive ambitions in the region.

Not so sure about that.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/06/asia/ ... index.html

As an exclamation point, japan is rated on this site the 7th most powerful military in the world. North Korea is 23.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/country ... orth-korea

[Mugwump]

^ thanks, Stui, I had not appreciated that. It makes sense, that Japan should have been building up as China does. There is no love lost at all between those two countries, esp from China toward Japan (for good historical reasons).

[Mugwump]

^^ actually, when you look at the respective military rankings they are massively influenced by economic and population factors, plus naval forces. Looking at the actual manpower and materiel balances, especially air and ground forces, NK would be a formidable opponent for .Japan and would probably give more than it got in any short term war, I suspect.

[swoop42]

^^ actually, when you look at the respective military rankings they are massively influenced by economic and population factors, plus naval forces. Looking at the actual manpower and materiel balances, especially air and ground forces, NK would be a formidable opponent for .Japan and would probably give more than it got in any short term war, I suspect.

You suspect?

They have nukes and I suspect will use without hesitation if attacked.

[Mugwump]

^^ actually, when you look at the respective military rankings they are massively influenced by economic and population factors, plus naval forces. Looking at the actual manpower and materiel balances, especially air and ground forces, NK would be a formidable opponent for .Japan and would probably give more than it got in any short term war, I suspect.

You suspect?

They have nukes and I suspect will use without hesitation if attacked.

If they thought they could "win" conventionally, why use nuclear weapons, with the risk of like retaliation that would bring ?

[swoop42]

^^ actually, when you look at the respective military rankings they are massively influenced by economic and population factors, plus naval forces. Looking at the actual manpower and materiel balances, especially air and ground forces, NK would be a formidable opponent for .Japan and would probably give more than it got in any short term war, I suspect.

You suspect?

They have nukes and I suspect will use without hesitation if attacked.

If they thought they could "win" conventionally, why use nuclear weapons, with the risk of like retaliation that would bring ?

Because attack Japan and the US with a Trump President will have the justification it needs (desires?) to end the North Korean problem once and for all.

[Mugwump]

^ maybe, maybe not, because of the risk of nuclear escalation on both sides. However, I was simply explaining why I "suspect" a given outcome and cannot share your rampant certainty.

[Jezza]

North Korea may have conducted another nuclear test after a magnitude 6.3 quake was detected.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-03/n ... st/8867568

[Dave The Man]

Blow North Korea of the Face of the Earth before they do something against the Rest of the World.

Can't keep letting them off the Hook

[David]

Hey Dave, how about if I give you a gun and tell you to walk into a room and shoot 100 children in cold blood as they beg you to spare them, in the hope that it will bring down the North Korean regime. Or if that's too abstract for you, just imagine you're an ISIS gunman at the Bataclan Theatre. Would you be happy to do that? That's what you're suggesting, only multiplied by about 100,000 or so.

So easy to talk tough about bombing foreign countries when you don't have to deal in any way with the suffering it will cause.